May 5, 2020 at 9:57 am #1203464736
When the predictions centre opened, for many people it seemed that if there were 6 Lead Actress in a Drama Series nominees that they would be Jennifer Aniston, Olivia Colman, Jodie Comer, Nicole Kidman, Laura Linney and Elisabeth Moss.
Then all of a sudden Nicole Kidman got snubbed at SAG and a divide in the Drama Predictions thread began with some people arguing this meant she will get snubbed at the Emmys and some arguing that she got snubbed due to a Big Little Lies vote split. Then Ozark season 3 aired and Laura Linney jumped to the top of the odds. Then Killing Eve season 3 aired and it seemed that Jodie Comer was in danger of being snubbed.
Aniston, Colman, Linney and Moss are locks to most people on Goldderby so I have not included them in this poll. Then many people have (even those who think she is in danger of being snubbed) have put Kidman in fifth place so although it would be very interesting to include her in this poll, I have not done so. However if you would still like to say Kidman gets the sixth slot, vote using the other option.
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.May 5, 2020 at 10:02 am #1203464757
I’ve voted for Reese Witherspoon for The Morning Show (although I personally think she should be nominated for her performance in Big Little Lies). This could change once Killing Eve season 3 finishes airing as I’m tossing between her and Comer but I have a feeling a nomination for her could arguably be the same as a nomination for Milo Ventimiglia in This is Us. Yes she missed at SAG but she still got a Globe nomination which arguably generates a bit of a buzz for her. And whilst The Morning Show missed Ensemble at SAG, it got three important nominations and won for Aniston. This could mean that The Morning Show is in the same position as many network shows when they get nominated for winter awards that they air too late for voters to consider them in ensemble but air in time for voters to vote for their key players. After all, This is Us (which later went on to win Drama Ensemble twice and got 7 acting nominations for its first season) got nominated for only one SAG award for its first season.
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.May 5, 2020 at 12:02 pm #1203465045
I agree for the most part. I also voted Reese Witherspoon, although I am concerned that I have misjudged who is in fifth, going with Nicole Kidman over Jodie Comer. That probably means that I should move Witherspoon up to fifth.
I also have her fourth, but I would not say that Elisabeth Moss is quite locked, like the three ahead of her. If The Handmaid’s Tale under-performs because it has been gone for so long and has been on for so long since its peak, this could be a Julianna Margulies situation where she gets snubbed for the show’s fourth year in a competitive field, even as her show continues to show up elsewhere and even win an acting award, only for the lead actress herself to come back the next year.May 5, 2020 at 12:16 pm #1203465073
I agree for the most part. I also voted Reese Witherspoon, although I am concerned that I have misjudged who is in fifth, going with Nicole Kidman over Jodie Comer. That probably means that I should move Witherspoon up to fifth. I also have her fourth, but I would not say that Elisabeth Moss is quite locked, like the three ahead of her. If The Handmaid’s Tale under-performs because it has been gone for so long and has been on for so long since its peak, this could be a Julianna Margulies situation where she gets snubbed for the show’s fourth year in a competitive field, even as her show continues to show up elsewhere and even win an acting award, only for the lead actress herself to come back the next year.
That is a very good point that I hadn’t realised. After all, Elisabeth Moss has missed in the past as well. I could easily see her missing to Comer, Kidman, Witherspoon (for any of her projects), Davis, Wood and even Oh.
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.May 5, 2020 at 12:22 pm #1203465093
This is probably the wrong thread, ultimately, to ask this question, but given it came to mind when reading Riley’s response, I’m asking it here. Feel free to move it, Riley!
Is it possible that Comer could become a bit of an Aduba-esque perennial nominee for a few years? She portrays a quirky fan-favorite that people continue to check off on their ballots because now they recognize her, even if they are no longer watching her show. It’s a bit of a limited analogy (Comer was not nominated until her second season, which she won; Aduba only lasted three years; etc.).
Just something knocking around in my mind…May 5, 2020 at 12:56 pm #1203465125
The more obvious parallel that I see is Tatiana Maslany with the genre elements of these shows and the writing offering diminishing returns for the show overall and pushing it out of all other categories. Uzo Aduba is more like Peter Dinklage and Jonathan Banks to me in that they latched on early to them and held on far longer than they should have, given all of the worthier performances that would come and go from their co-stars in their sprawling ensembles.May 5, 2020 at 1:04 pm #1203465172
I don’t want to sound like I have any certainty over this category so don’t mistake me. Currently I have: Aniston, Linney, Colman, Moss, Kidman and Witherspoon. This group makes the most sense to me on paper. The first three are locks as mentioned. Then you have Moss and Kidman who seem the most likely of the contenders to benefit from the voting system as they have the visibility, the acclaim and the name recognition to fill out people’s ballots in a “well it would be harsh not to tick her off seeing as I can choose as many as I want” kind of way.
For the sixth slot, Witherspoon is presently where I’m at. Purely because I am betting that actors will like this show and, similar to what I’ve said about Drama Series, her show is one of few that is not passed its sell-by date. Along with the fact that she will be near the top of half of all ballots not once but twice, on a logical level it’s hard to ignore that she would make sense to be nommed. In this scenario, I am tempted to say I’d also have Witherspoon in 7th for Big Little Lies because, as Riley speculated a couple of weeks ago, voters would have to make a conscious choice to vote for her for one role and not the other so it would be strange for the two performances to not be within 2% of each other. The fact that I see a Big Little Lies underperformance coming is what holds me back on this.
So that is what I have when I consider things analytically. But I have little confidence in it because the Emmys rarely make so much sense so anyone could spoil. And if I had to bet on who that would be right now I’d say Viola Davis. Majorly because, like the series category, this one has quite quickly become weaker than it could have been as the likes of Wood and Comer have been dealt blows. As such, I no longer view it as “too strong” for Davis to get in and in many ways it seems foolish not to be predicting her when she has taken advantage of the scattered nature of this category just last year. But she also is the only one here not in a viable series contender and seems exactly the type of performance to be perennial until bizarrely missing for the final season.
I’m not entirely ruling Comer, Wood, Oh and Moore out as of yet. Comer, in particular, has weeks to gain buzz and attention if her show permits it. The current storytelling has me sceptical that she will though and, as I mentioned (and was slandered for) way back before Killing Eve 3 even debuted, she is not the kind of contender that this voting system favors as you either know her or you don’t. She needs her show’s strong support base to come through for her in order to scrape in but it’s not looking good when some of them might not even vote for her based on the material she’s been getting. Meanwhile, Wood can get in if Westworld sticks the landing with voters and surprises across the board, the same of which applies to Moore, and Oh can do so if Killing Eve gains attention and she gets within 2% of Comer.May 5, 2020 at 1:12 pm #1203465183
Ms. Davis (my hope-diction).May 5, 2020 at 1:24 pm #1203465198
Rise, Claire Danes!May 5, 2020 at 2:11 pm #1203465286
I have a hard time buying Witherspoon as a nominee. On the ballot, her two performances will be right next to each other. Would there really be enough of a consensus between the two for either one to sneak through?May 5, 2020 at 2:14 pm #1203465291
Despite the names attached this race is actually so underwhelming. Who do I root for?
Colman gave a good but underwhelming performance in a really good season of tv.
Kidman and Witherspoon were far superior in season 1.
Anniston did great work but her show sucked (not even mentioning Witherspoon here because I thought she was so dreadful)
Wood/Moss/Comer/Oh are doing their best but the shows are drowning.
What a stacked lineup!!
I don’t watch Ozark but I’m so fine with Linney winning. I guess I’m rooting for Anniston. but I’d honestly be good with Colman. It is a bummer Snook moved to supporting because at least then there would be the chance to acknowledge a great performance in a great season.May 5, 2020 at 2:16 pm #1203465294
The more obvious parallel that I see is Tatiana Maslany with the genre elements of these shows and the writing offering diminishing returns for the show overall and pushing it out of all other categories. Uzo Aduba is more like Peter Dinklage and Jonathan Banks to me in that they latched on early to them and held on far longer than they should have, given all of the worthier performances that would come and go from their co-stars in their sprawling ensembles.
That’s why I’m keeping Comer. I really see her as the new Maslany .May 5, 2020 at 2:21 pm #1203465301
I think Kidman gets snubbed & Comer & Davis get the 5th & 6th slots. I like the Maslany comparison for Comer & I believe that the only time Davis missed in this category was the year she was nominated in guest for the same role.May 5, 2020 at 2:34 pm #1203465338
I’m going with Mandy Moore for a nomination. She had some excellent work this year and has no competition from her network and she doesn’t have any competition from her show. I think NBC will do a good PR push for her and I think an at home concert/concert series from her would keep her in the public eye as well.Not now
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