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IMDB votes/scores/search stats for new series at the Emmys

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  • kat_ebbs
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    #1204526063

    I have been messing around with IMDB trying to work out if there is some level of basic math I can apply to what gets in (is this OTT? Yes. But also a bit of prediction fun).

    In general, the truest things I have found are the following (I have only used data from the last five years because that’s when the unlimited ballot started)

    For Series already debuted

    • 95% of Emmy Nominees (program or acting) have 5000+ votes and a 7.0 or higher on IMDB. The figure is only slightly less for the winter awards. Usually it is significantly more. This is not rocket science. There is a minimum viewership level and quality level required.

     

    • It is close to imperative  (90%) that shows are in the top 100 searched shows for the pilot at a minimum (as well as the above) and preferably a lot longer (for instance, Ted Lasso has never left. Friends has been on that list since 2000). Full season drops need to be on the high end of the list. It is a good sign if a binge model show stays for 6-8 weeks.

    For Pre Release Shows

    • It is a very good sign if shows are popping up in the top 100 the weeks they have pre-release promo as this is quite hard to do (it’s not necessary but it’s a good sign)

     

    • 80% of shows that end up with an ATL nomination spend eight weeks pre-release (as interest in cast or promotion builds) in the top 5000 most searched entities (if you don’t have IMDBPro, that’s more or less currently a search value on their homepage of 1600 or less. This moves to nearly 100% for shows airing on linear. Again, not rocket science, it’s appropriately timed visibility.

     

    • This is a correlation vs causation stat: some just go on to be popular (and yes some still flop, but comparatively less than those that don’t). The exception to this rule is Netflix where nearly half of their titles don’t follow that pattern and to a slightly lesser extent Hulu and Prime (there is much less data). This is quite a retrospectively interesting stat (for instance, The Boys was at this level for almost a year) but harder to meet than you’d think (ie there are only 4 HBO shows on there currently).

    None of this is is 100% there are still exceptions.

     

    • This topic was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by katiebstate.
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    Manav
    Joined:
    Dec 21st, 2019
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    Posts:
    #1204526070

    I have been messing around with IMDB trying to work out if there is some level of basic math I can apply to what gets in (is this OTT? Yes. But also a bit of prediction fun).

    In general, the truest things I have found are the following (I have only used data from the last five years because that’s when the unlimited ballot started)

    For Series already debuted

    • 95% of Emmy Nominees (program or acting) have 5000+ votes and a 7.0 or higher on IMDB. The figure is only slightly less for the winter awards. Usually it is significantly more. This is not rocket science. There is a minimum viewership level and quality level required.
    • It is close to imperative (90%) that shows are in the top 100 searched shows for the pilot at a minimum (as well as the above) and preferably a lot longer (for instance, Ted Lasso has never left. Friends has been on that list since 2000). Full season drops need to be on the high end of the list. It is a good sign if a binge model show stays for 6-8 weeks.

    For Pre Release Shows

    • It is a very good sign if shows are popping up in the top 100 the weeks they have pre-release promo as this is quite hard to do (it’s not necessary but it’s a good sign)
    • 80% of shows that end up with an ATL nomination spend eight weeks pre-release (as interest in cast or promotion builds) in the top 5000 most searched entities (if you don’t have IMDBPro, that’s more or less currently a search value on their homepage of 1600 or less. This moves to nearly 100% for shows airing on linear. Again, not rocket science, it’s appropriately timed visibility.
    • This is a correlation vs causation stat: some just go on to be popular (and yes some still flop, but comparatively less than those that don’t). The exception to this rule is Netflix where nearly half of their titles don’t follow that pattern and to a slightly lesser extent Hulu and Prime (there is much less data). This is quite a retrospectively interesting stat (for instance, The Boys was at this level for almost a year) but harder to meet than you’d think (ie there are only 4 HBO shows on there currently).

    None of this is is 100% there are still exceptions.

    I applaud and salute your efforts to compile this.👏👏

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    kat_ebbs
    Joined:
    Jun 10th, 2021
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    #1204526113

    I applaud and salute your efforts to compile this.

    LOL. I kind of hate the internet and how it distorts what is and isn’t popular through algorithms. I find getting data kind of helpful.

    (For what it’s worth, Landscapers and Severance are unsurprisingly nowhere near the top 5000 stat, just about every other 2021 show that hasn’t been released and is going to SAG makes it pretty easily).

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