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Most underestimated (50/1 or more) on Gold Derby under current Emmy system

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204504947

    Decided to make a list of all the 50/1 or longer (user) odds since the new unlimited ballot system came in to see where I’ve gone wrong in the past and felt like I’d share it cos it was interesting. This is from 2017-2021

    Interestingly:

    – Long odds actors not many people saw coming often went on to be nominated again (for that program or another)

    -Actors that weren’t white were often underestimated disproportionately

    – probably shouldn’t underestimate filmed shows or Ryan Murphy 0r Handmaid’s actors

    -I think underestimations skew linear proportionally or is that me

    Anyway:

     

     

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204504948

    Under Estimated Series

    The Alienist (2018) – limited

    Emily in Paris (2021) – comedy

    Genius (2017) – limited

    Genius Picasso (2018) – limited

    The Mandalorian (2020) – drama

    Schitt’s Creek (2019) – comedy

    What We Do In The Shadows (2020) – comedy

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204504950

    Actor Categories

    Alfie Allen, Game of Thrones (2019)

    Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine Nine (2020)

    Anthony Carrigan, Barry (2019)

    Anthony Ramos, Hamilton (2021)

    Carl Clemons Hopkins, Hacks (2021)

    Chris Sullivan, This Is Us (2019)

    Dylan McDermott, Hollywood (2020)

    Ed Harris, Westworld (2018)

    Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek (2019)

    Finn Wittrock, Assassination of Gianni Versace (2018)

    Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (2019)

    Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso (2021)

    Jesse Plemons, Black Mirror (2018)

    John Legend, Jesus Christ Superstar (2018)

    John Leguizamo, Waco (2018) and John Leguizamo, When They See Us (2019)

    Jeffrey Wright, Westworld (2020)

    Jeremy Pope, Hollywood (2020)

    Jonathan Groff, Hamilton (2021)

    Jovan Adepo, Watchmen (2020)

    Kenan Thompson, SNL (2017)

    Louis Gossett Jr, Watchmen (2020)

    Mandy Patinkin, Homeland (2017)

    Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (2020)

    Matt Smith, The Crown (2018)

    Max Minghella, The Handmaid’s Tale (2021)

    Michael K Williams, The Night of (2017)

    Nicholas Braun, Succession (2020)

    O-T Fagbenle, The Handmaid’s Tale (2021)

    Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You (2021)

    Paul Reiser, The Komisnky Method (2021)

    Stephen Root, Barry (2019)

    Steve Carell, The Morning Show (2020)

    Thomas Brodie Sangster, The Queen’s Gambit (2021)

    William Jackson Harper, The Good Place (2020)

    Zach Galifianakis, Baskets  (2017)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204504952

    Actress Category

    Adina Porter, American Horror Story: Cult (2018)

    Aidy Bryant, SNL (2018) and Aidy Bryant, Shrill (2021)

    Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (2017)

    Aunjanue Ellis, When They See Us (2019)

    Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek (2019)

    Cecily Strong, SNL (2020)

    Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve (2020)

    Gwendoline Christie, Game of Thrones (2019)

    Holland Taylor, Hollywood (2020)

    Issa Rae, Insecure (2018)

    Jackie Hoffman, Feud: Bette and Joan (2017)

    Kathryn Hahn, Transparent (2017)

    Letitia Wright, Black Mirror (2018)

    Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid’s Tale (2021)

    Mandy Moore, This Is Us (2019)

    Margaret Qualley, Fosse/Verdon (2019)

    Moses Ingram, The Queen’s Gambit (2021)

    Octavia Spencer, Self Made (2020)

    Pamela Adlon, Better Things (2017)

    Phillipa Soo, Hamilton (2021)

    Regina King, Seven Seconds (2018)

    Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale (2017) and Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale (2020)

    Sara Bareilles, Jesus Christ Superstar (2018)

    Sarah Goldberg, Barry (2019)

    Sian Clifford, Fleabag (2019)

    Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black (2018)

    Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish (2020)

    Tracey Ullman, Mrs America (2020)

    Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder (2019)

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    wolfali
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    #1204504956

    Tracey Ullman, Mrs America (2020)

    I’m honestly surprised she was projected so low throughout the entire season. Her name was one of the first ones on half of these voters ballots and she was a 7 time Emmy winning comedic actress going against type. Felt like a no brainer to me tbh.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204504971

    TE

    Some of these in retrospect seem extremely obvious, Ullman is one of them.

    Interesting to see both Kenan and Aidy were low odds even for supporting for SNL and both have later pulled off lead noms

    Also Fiona Shaw being more than 50/1 in 2020 surprises me. I wouldn’t have expected her to be the favourite but that’s retrospectively really underestimating someone who was one of only two returning nominees.

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    wolfali
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    #1204504978

    Also Fiona Shaw being more than 50/1 in 2020 surprises me. I wouldn’t have expected her to be the favourite but that’s retrospectively really underestimating someone who was one of only two returning nominees.

    In hindsight it was ridiculous. At the time though I think the justification was that because Killing Eve hadn’t performed well (aside from Oh) with <i>The Handmaid’s Tale</i>, Stranger ThingsThe Crown etc in contention and it had a weaker critical reception than both season 1 and 2 did that it would perform weaker (like Westworld) and only get in Comer because she just won (although some people were predicting her to get snubbed which kind of made no sense).

    But what was really underestimated is that people still enjoyed this season quite a bit (it wasn’t panned like Westworld‘s and the finale wasn’t polarising like Big Little Lies‘) and that the show itself was quite strong. The show remained quite popular amongst audiences and the industry and was third at worst in series in 2019 and Comer’s win was actually a sign of strength as the fact she managed to overcome Oh (who had swept the winter awards) without splitting to allow a Clarke or Linney win was a huge feat. Shaw was probably ahead of Dern, Streep and Wiley in the end.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    #1204504982
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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204505001

    Kelly Jenrette.

    Ha I considered adding guests but decided against it.

    There are some fun ones there.

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