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SAG Awards TV Predictions (Part 3)

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    Victor
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    #1204531201

    I think Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong are completely fine, because the show revolves around them and Strong gained more visibility by being on the ballot for SAG Ensemble winner The Trial of the Chicago 7

    I don’t feel this confident with Sarah Snook, though. I can easily see Uzo Aduba getting namechecked just like it happened at the Emmys, or The Morning Show getting three nominations. Still going to predict Snook.

    I’m also predicting those 3 + Ensemble.
    Snook is kinda a default prediction of mine, i don’t feel confident in Uzo Aduba after she got snubbed after an Emmy win and at this point I don’t think TMS is getting 3.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531203

    Obviously no one here’s thinks Succession is getting 6-8 noms, in fact we were laughing at the expert predicting that. It can go from 0 to 4 IMO, wouldn’t shock me if they snub the show again, but i don’t think they will since they did that before the Emmys, anyway.

    Oh yeah, I get that, more just saying (obviously quoting my figures inaccurately, I deserve the call-out, time for coffee) that they rarely go in on any HBO show that much let alone any show with that many nominations

     

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    gabspss
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    #1204531212

    I wouldn’t be shocked with Succession getting 4 male nominations in all honesty. The year is sooooo weak! And the show is bigger than ever.

    I can also see J. Smith Cameron being nominated if her role continues to be juicy.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    wolfali
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    #1204531217

    that they rarely go in on any HBO show that much let alone any show with that many nominations

    I agree with this and I think it’s why its worth mentioning that any recognition HBO gets is going to be huge. People (myself included) assumed Lovecraft getting zero individual citations and Perry Mason getting shut out meant they’d underperfom but the opposite happened. Michaela Coel and Thandiwe Newton’s individual nominations were arguably signs their shows would perform so well with actors (Westworld getting four acting noms, IMDY getting Essiedu in).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    methaddiction
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    #1204531219

    It wouldn’t be shocking if they hadn’t ignored the show twice but I honestly think 3-4 nominations is going to be the max.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531255

    I agree with this and I think it’s why its worth mentioning that any recognition HBO gets is going to be huge. People (myself included) assumed Lovecraft getting zero individual citations and Perry Mason getting shut out meant they’d underperfom but the opposite happened. Michaela Coel and Thandiwe Newton’s individual nominations were arguably signs their shows would perform so well with actors (Westworld getting four acting noms, IMDY getting Essiedu in).

    Newton I believe is the sole HBO nominee in Actress-Drama in a decade. Whilst I wouldn’t put too much overthinking in to Snook in this field in a borderline lead role in a weak field, Smith-Cameron would be very atypical (very much a Julia Garner style “oh. we should pay attention” scenario.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204531269

    Newton I believe is the sole HBO nominee in Actress-Drama in a decade

    Her power.. 

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    ricardo505
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    #1204531284

    I may be wrong, but we’re gonna know this year if SAG voters only love Netflix or if they’re just streaming lovers. This is the first season that Succession is available on HBO Max since it was created for SAG Awards, right?

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    Victor
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    #1204531297

    Headey was robbed from a SAG nom.
    The whole = we’ll nominate Dinklage, Ensemble and Stunt every year had me.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531373

    I may be wrong, but we’re gonna know this year if SAG voters only love Netflix or if they’re just streaming lovers. This is the first season that Succession is available on HBO Max since it was created for SAG Awards, right?

    Yeah, but they had a streaming service. There seems to be a very strong pull towards actresses on streaming services in particular and a strong tendency away from HBO women in drama, but some of that can be explained by their predictability with GoT

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    Jays
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    #1204531410

    I’m not understanding the comments where people say they wouldn’t be surprised if Succession misses or if it underperforms here. For starters…what else is there? And obviously — it’s one of the buzziest/best show on TV right now. This will simply be a situation where SAG plays catch up. Succession missed for its first two seasons which was kind of before it properly blew up. The season 2 snub was odd though. But you don’t perform the way Succession did at the Emmy’s (especially in the acting categories) and not do well at SAG the next time you’re eligible. Ensemble + Strong + Cox + Snook are safe, imo. I could even see Smith-Cameron and/or one of Culkin/Macfadyen happening too. The show is that popular.

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    Manav
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    #1204531420

    I think it’ll be The Morning Show that explodes and not Succession. While Succession will get noms, I can sense The Morning Show getting loads (in an empty field) since they’ve embraced the show in the past and the Emmys also showed that actors do care for the show even if the reviews are okay.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531483

    I’m not understanding the comments where people say they wouldn’t be surprised if Succession misses or if it underperforms here

    I don’t think people are suggesting it will underperform, it was in response to a prediction of all five male nominees being from Succession. It’s not like it and The Morning Show are the only shows that have aired. They still have Handmaid’s, This Is Us, Pose etc.

    Smith-Cameron would be considered an over-performance here because they don’t tend to nominate very many HBO people at all and only Thandie has been nominated on the female side in a decade. Snook would be the expectation I think given the field.

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    Manav
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    #1204531595

    only Thandie has been nominated on the female side in a decade from HBO

    This stat is shocking!

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    Luca
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    #1204531652

    I def think Succession is getting multiple nominations. The reasons are obvious. However, a weekly reminder that the nominations are selected by a nominating committee consisting of around 1-2k members (note that the guild comprises 160k members in total). This committee also rotates, meaning once you have served on it, you cannot serve for the next eight years. That’s why we often get strange nominations like Bill Pullman for The Sinner S2 after both he and Jessica Biel were not nominated for S1 (though that might have had other reasons too). What this basically means is that anything can happen — it all depends on who these 1-2k members are and what they like. It’s very possible, if not likely, that Succession has missed twice because the 3-4k committee members in total that were selected to vote these past two years hadn’t watched the show yet. It’s also possible though that not enough of them like(d) the show. Now imagine if this year’s committee consists of stans. That could result in multiple nominations, perhaps more than we’re expecting (I also believe that the show is just too big to ignore at this point). Ultimately, SAG-AFTRA is very unpredictable in the nominations phase. I am especially frightened by influencers now being allowed to vote. We might get some really odd choices this year.

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