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SAG Awards TV Predictions (Part 3)

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    Victor
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    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1204520435

    I don’t think a second Jennifer Aniston win would be comparable to Gillian Anderson coming back after like 20 years playing Margaret Thatcher.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520444

    If The Crown could split votes between HBC and Colman for Aniston to in and Sterling K. Brown/Courtney B. Vance can split and allow Bryan Cranston to win for a performance that he lost the Emmy for then Winslet/Nicholson and Aniston/Margulies can definitely split if someone like Coolidge or Moss (or a show like theirs) ends up being strong enough.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520463

    Moss winning now would be just weird.

    True but it’s a wide open field and her show is arguably looking like a strong runner up (either second or third) in terms of the show’s that have aired thus far.

    She got in for season 3 even when the Emmys dropped her so the support is there. I guess a win for her would be comparable to Blunt (someone who is arguably overdue at SAG and wins in a wide open field with the circumstances right there for them for a performance being hailed as career best).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    methaddiction
    Joined:
    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204520470

    The way Moss still hasn’t won individually yet.. 

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520480

    The way Moss still hasn’t won individually yet..  

    The power of GOATs.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    methaddiction
    Joined:
    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204520486

    The power of GOATs.

    Should’ve cleared for Mad Men season 4 hun (along with Jon Hamm)

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    Luca
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    Posts:
    #1204520490

    Moss winning now would be just weird. I’m throwing Mj out there not just because I’m stanning, but because I think she has a good chance of winning GG and CC and we know how voters can be sheeps. Of course the nomination is far from being guaranteed and I don’t even have her in now.

    Moss winning now would be weird in the sense that her best chance was for S1, but it certainly makes more sense on paper than Mj, who, as you said, is not even guaranteed a nom. Pose will be lucky to get any noms here at all IMO, though you never know with these rotating nominating committees. But even if it’s nominated, I doubt it, a somewhat “niche” show, wins anything — we’re talking about 150k eligible voters here. Mj would have needed to win the Emmy to have a chance of winning SAG IMO. I could easily be wrong though. Who knows.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520499

    Should’ve cleared for Mad Men season 4 hun (along with Jon Hamm)

    Tea (Julianna should have won the previous year instead).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204520505

    Moss winning now would be weird in the sense that her best chance was for S1, but it certainly makes more sense on paper than Mj, who, as you said, is not even guaranteed a nom. Pose will be lucky to get any noms here IMO. And Pose is prob a bit too “niche” (though I hate using this term with respect this show) to win anything if nominated — we’re talking about 150k eligible voters here. Mj would have needed to win the Emmy to have a chance of winning SAG IMO. I could easily be wrong though. Who knows.

    I think an ensemble nomination without nods for either Billy or MJ is still possible for Pose (a bit like The Americans).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    methaddiction
    Joined:
    Aug 1st, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204520509

    I think an ensemble nomination without nods for either Billy or MJ is still possible for Pose (a bit like The Americans).

    When the Dexter reboot gets in over Pose and This is Us..

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    Tyler
    Joined:
    Jan 9th, 2018
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    #1204520516

    Snook, Anniston, and Moss are win competitive. Marguiles isn’t winning for a supporting (nearly guest) arc on a show that has had a weak S2 and is on the border/not likely for a series Emmy nomination.

    If Severance works, Patricia Arquette has a wide open race.

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    Luca
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204520521

    I think an ensemble nomination without nods for either Billy or MJ is still possible for Pose (a bit like The Americans).

    Absolutely. It following in The Americans’ footsteps would make so much sense — another smaller FX show getting its goodbye hug. I took it out for Squid Game and kept TIU instead, but I could easily see it replace TIU, which we keep predicting even though it keeps getting left out.

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    Victor
    Joined:
    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1204520533

    Regina King is winning her first SAG in the Drama Actress race wbk.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520566

    Absolutely. It following in The Americans’ footsteps would make so much sense — another smaller FX show getting its goodbye hug. I took it out for Squid Game and kept TIU instead, but I could easily see it replace TIU, which we keep predicting even though it keeps getting left out.

    I dropped This is Us because whilst it did make it back into series this year in spite of its SAG snub I found it particularly striking that Moore (who made it in over Rodriguez in 2019) and Ventimiglia couldn’t make it back in. I honestly think it’s headed for the Black-ish route tbh. Brown will get back in here but if it could miss for Better Call Saul (which outside of writing is essentially a filler show when it comes to industry award nominations) last year then I don’t think it’s implausible for it to miss for Pose.

    What’s particularly interesting about Pose is its awards run is very similar to The Americans. It won for its male lead (Porter for the first season, Rhys for the last), they were both dropped in series after they received their first season nominations but still made it into more or less every single one of the other categories it was nominated in before and then really grew in nominations on its final season. Both shows failed to get nominated in casting for their final seasons and both failed to get any supporting acting nominations. Both are “smaller” FX shows that had monumental final seasons. Pose made it in for directing at the Emmys in the weaker field whilst The Americans made it in at DGA in a weaker field.

    Sure there are some small differences between them but I don’t think it’s implausible for Pose to follow a similar winter awards trajectory.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    kat_ebbs
    Joined:
    Jun 10th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204521113

    If Severance works, Patricia Arquette has a wide open race.

    I do not feel confident on Severance at this stage.

    Nine episodes and we haven’t got a trailer? Either the full series isn’t releasing in 2021 or it’s getting dumped in the next few weeks.

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