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SAG Awards TV Predictions (Part 3)

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204521119

    If The Crown could split votes between HBC and Colman for Aniston to in and Sterling K. Brown/Courtney B. Vance can split and allow Bryan Cranston to win for a performance that he lost the Emmy for then Winslet/Nicholson and Aniston/Margulies can definitely split if someone like Coolidge or Moss (or a show like theirs) ends up being strong enough.

    I think both Winslet/Nicholson and Aniston/Margulies situations are different.

    While Aniston is the stronger of the two in TMS,Margulies is beloved by SAG. And though Margulies wouldn’t necessarily win for this performance (unless she has Julianne Nicholson type final Episodes),she may take out enough voters from Aniston (like HBC did with Colman) to cause someone like Moss/Snook to win as TMS isn’t strong enough to overcome a major vote split.

    Winslet/Nicholson is widely different. While both won the Emmys,one of them is the much more stronger than the other. While Nicholson will take a hefty amount of votes away from Winslet (no doubt),Winslet is the clear favourite out of the two and given SAG’s affinity for veterans (especially their darlings),she is easily taking this. Mare is massively strong and can survive a potential split. Nicholson is nowhere close to how strong Winslet is.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
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    #1204521838

    The way the drama ensemble race keeps getting more and more competitive with each passing week…

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    24fanatic
    Joined:
    Nov 6th, 2010
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    #1204521870

    It won’t happen but with how weak this drama ensemble field is this year, in an ideal world there should be no reason for The Good Fight not to happen for its fantastic ensemble this year.

    The fact Loki is ahead of it in the odds (and is likelier to get nominated for ensemble) is the definition of sad but unfortunately true (and eww).

    I want to co-sign and reiterate this! How sad that we are talking about someone like Reese or a guest starring Julianna (who I do love) getting into SAG Drama Actress for a weak season instead of Christine Baranski.

    Here’s to hoping more SAG voters have Paramount+ subscriptions this year! Lol

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    Manav
    Joined:
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    #1204522254

    Is The White Lotus going Limited or Drama at SAG and the Winter Awards?

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    wolfali
    Joined:
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    #1204522258

    I want to co-sign and reiterate this! How sad that we are talking about someone like Reese or a guest starring Julianna (who I do love) getting into SAG Drama Actress for a weak season instead of Christine Baranski.

    In an ideal world Baranski would be pulling an O’Hara this year.

    If <i>The Gilded Age</i> ends up being her vehicle for the win like Hacks was for Smart last year I’ll just pretend her win is for this season of The Good Fight. I honestly would never have thought she’d have topped her performance in “The Gang Deals with the Alternate Reality” but she did it 10 times over this year.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    braydenfitzsimmons
    Joined:
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    #1204522311

    How sad that we are talking about someone like Reese or a guest starring Julianna (who I do love) getting into SAG Drama Actress for a weak season instead of Christine Baranski.

    When Baranski gets in with Jen as the only TMS representative.

    DianeSlapsAlicia

    Oscars FYC:

    "CODA" – in all categories

    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Sup. Actor (Richard E. Grant), Sup. Actress (Sarah Lancashire) and Original Song (“This Was Me”)

    "King Richard" – Original Song (“Be Alive”)

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    Karen Gill.
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    Aug 23rd, 2021
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    #1204522328

    I really think Kate Winslet and Jason Sudeikis are not locks.  I can see

    (1) Kate Winslet losing to Jessica Chastain or Jennifer Coolidge or Julianne Nicholson or Margaret Qualley.

    (2) Jason Sudeikis losing to Martin Short or Steve Martin or Nicholas Hoult.

    Does anyone share my opinion?

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    wolfali
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    #1204522334

    Jason Sudeikis is locked. His show just swept at the Emmys and SAG love repeat winners in this category so I think at worst he’s headed for a PWB esque trajectory. Short and Martin will probably vote-split and Hoult will need The Great to pull a Succession for him to be strong enough to beat Sudeikis.

    I don’t think Ted Lasso is locked for the ensemble prize though. It deserves to win it and one can argue it’s in a similar position to 30 Rock and Mad Men season 2 (a strong buzzy frontrunner that emerges for the following Emmy cycle that loses ensemble to the incumbent Emmy sweeper with a beloved season but sweeps at the Emmys and then takes SAG the following year). However with how Only Murders in the Building keeps gaining more and more momentum and buzz with each passing week I feel like it’s winning something. Either this over Ted Lasso or DGA over Hacks. It is probably helped by it having that Orange is the New Black/Maisel/This is Us “ensemble” feel to it (there is perhaps not a single actor on this show who hasn’t interacted with all three of the leads).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    ricardo505
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    Jun 14th, 2015
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    #1204522344

    Sudeikis is locked. I know it was a different era, but if there’s something that hasn’t changed is how SAG doesn’t care to repeat winners. He even won last year against the Levys.

    What is crazy is that William H. Macy is his biggest thread if he’s nominated, as his last nomination (and win) was in 2017.

    Winslet is not locked, but she’s nearly locked. They go with popular picks, so I think Coolidge is second.

    About Chastain and Qualley: I wonder how many voters watched both shows, as I don’t see buzz enough for a win (even for a namecheck).

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    Karen Gill.
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    #1204522346

    Jason Sudeikis is locked. His show just swept at the Emmys and SAG love repeat winners in this category so I think at worst he’s headed for a PWB esque trajectory. Short and Martin will probably vote-split and Hoult will need The Great to pull a Succession for him to be strong enough to beat Sudeikis. I don’t think Ted Lasso is locked for the ensemble prize though. It deserves to win it and one can argue it’s in a similar position to 30 Rock and Mad Men season 2 (a strong buzzy frontrunner that emerges for the following Emmy cycle that loses ensemble to the incumbent Emmy sweeper with a beloved season but sweeps at the Emmys and then takes SAG the following year). However with how Only Murders in the Building keeps gaining more and more momentum and buzz with each passing week I feel like it’s winning something. Either this over Ted Lasso or DGA over Hacks. It is probably helped by it having that Orange is the New Black/Maisel/This is Us “ensemble” feel to it (there is perhaps not a single actor on this show who hasn’t interacted with all three of the leads).

    Makes sense. So you are of the opinion that both of them are locked. Right.

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    Karen Gill.
    Joined:
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    #1204522349

    as I don’t see buzz enough for a win (ever for a namecheck).

    Honestly speaking, it would be Winslet who benefits from a namecheck and not Chastain.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
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    #1204522359

    Winslet is not locked, but she’s nearly locked. They go with popular picks, so I think Coolidge is second. About Chastain and Qualley: I wonder how many voters watched both shows, as I don’t see buzz enough for a win (even for a namecheck).

    Agree about Chastain, disagree about Qualley. <i>Scenes From a Marriage</i> has very stale buzz but Maid keeps growing and growing and more and more industry people are catching up on it (from what I’ve seen its more or less the only other thing people are watching on Netflix that isn’t Squid Game).

    Of course whether she wins or not is another story but I think we’ll have a clearer idea of Maid‘s chances once we get to December. If it continues growing (and <i>The Shrink Next Door</i> flops and The White Lotus and Squid Game go drama) it’s looking quite good (perhaps almost set?) for major guild wins considering the vacuum in these categories and I can see Qualley being one of them if Winslet and Nicholson end up splitting votes. They do love Netflix after all.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    methaddiction
    Joined:
    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204522361

    The argument that Only Murders is going to benefit from having a lot of buzz right now could literally be applied to Ted Lasso as well though.. it’s coming off 3 acting wins and trended on Twitter every week and has only grown in popularity since the first season.

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    Karen Gill.
    Joined:
    Aug 23rd, 2021
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    #1204522439

    I’ll be creating polls for each category at SAG TV to see the results.

    First one:

    Limited/Anthology Series Actress

    https://strawpoll.com/5ke1ac7xw

    Vote now.

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    Victor
    Joined:
    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1204522479

    Hun i voted on this one because i don’t think anyone will top Qualley for me on the rest of the year (well, never doubt Olivia Colman)
    But this won’t work in other categories because I have yet to see many performances from shows that haven’t even aired yet, so i really can’t vote on others. The likes of Insecure, Curb, Shrink Next Door, Succession, Severance, etc. haven’t even aired yet.
    Likewise, The Morning Show, Dopesick, Shadows, Only Murders are still airing.

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