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SAG Awards TV Predictions (Part 3)

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    Karen Gill.
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    #1204522493

    Hun i voted on this one because i don’t think anyone will top Qualley for me on the rest of the year (well, never doubt Olivia Colman) But this won’t work in other categories because I have yet to see many performances from shows that haven’t even aired yet, so i really can’t vote on others. The likes of Insecure, Curb, Shrink Next Door, Succession, Severance, etc. haven’t even aired yet. Likewise, The Morning Show, Dopesick, Shadows, Only Murders are still airing.

    Ok,got it. I’ll make only Limited Categories Polls for now (including Limited Ensemble). I’ll make the Drama and Comedy Polls in late November/December when most shows have aired.

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    Luca
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    #1204522520

    I really think Kate Winslet and Jason Sudeikis are not locks. I can see (1) Kate Winslet losing to Jessica Chastain or Jennifer Coolidge or Julianne Nicholson or Margaret Qualley. (2) Jason Sudeikis losing to Martin Short or Steve Martin or Nicholas Hoult. Does anyone share my opinion?

    I have to agree with what’s already been said: I believe Sudeikis is a capital L lock while Winslet is a safe bet.

    First off, Sudeikis won last year, which means his chances of winning again this year are automatically high given how much SAG-AFTRA favors repeat winners. Then add the fact that he just won the Emmy and that Ted Lasso is undeniably huge. Personally, I am not even sure both Short and Martin get in, and I remain that The Great has enough passionate support to get shortlisted by a nominating committee comprised of one to two thousand members but not enough widespread appeal to win an award voted on by 150k SAG-AFTRA members.

    As for Winslet, no, she is not completely locked. Since The White Lotus is presumably going drama after it was announced that Coolidge will be reprising her character in S2, I think Winslet’s biggest challenger will be Qualley, who has the raves and Netflix behind her. At the end of the day, however, if Winslet was able to win the Emmy in arguably the most competitive category of the year, I don’t see her losing the SAG Award, which I thought she could have won even if she’d lost the Emmy. Mare of Easttown was both widely seen and liked, and Winslet is a beloved vet, both of which are important when considering just how many people vote for this award. Your local weatherman will have most likely seen MOE and for sure knows who Winslet is — that’s how I tend to predict these awards. As amazing as she was, Nicholson is not locked for the nom, likely does not stand a chance of winning in a combined field and will, IMO, if nominated not even siphon enough votes from Winslet to stop the latter from winning. Meanwhile, Chastain, despite giving an uber-acclaimed performance, will likely suffer from Scenes From a Marriage being somewhat underseen. And if she gets nominated for Tammy Faye on the movie side, she also risks splitting her own vote across categories if voters don’t want to check her off twice.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204522529

    Sudeikis is almost definitely locked because SAG really does go for vote splitting in a big way and so neither Short nor Martin will be able to overcome him. Even if one were snubbed, eliminating the splitting element, that would demonstrate that the show had less passion than we thought and so again indicate a Sudekis victory.

    Winslet is not locked. But she is still a very sturdy frontrunner given that none of her new opponents have really emerged as huge threats for the win, more the nomination. Her path to losing is probably if both Nicolson and Smart get nominated against her, and the other two are Qualley and someone who is definitely not winning. In this scenario I could see Qualley being able to squeak a victory given recency bias. Even here though, I would still probably predict Winslet as I doubt that many who have watched and loved Mare would vote away from her for one of her co-stars.

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    Babygirl
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    #1204522531

    If Winslet was able to beat the winter awards sweeper in the series winner at the Emmys then I have a hard time imagining her losing here. I guess sure it can happen but I’m uncertain.

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    Manav
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    #1204522537

    Your local weatherman will have most likely seen MOE and for sure knows who Winslet is — that’s how I tend to predict these awards.

    I fell off laughing.

    And if she gets nominated for Tammy Faye on the movie side, she also risks splitting her own vote across categories if voters don’t want to check her off twice.

    Something like this happened to Julianne Moore in 2002 at every award ceremony where she was nominated for The Hours (supporting) and Far From Heaven (Lead).

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    Manav
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    #1204522540

    I’ll be creating polls for each category at SAG TV to see the results.

    First one:

    Limited/Anthology Series Actress

    https://strawpoll.com/5ke1ac7xw

    Vote now.

    When will the results be declared?

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    Karen Gill.
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    #1204522544

    The response so far to the Limited Actress poll has been beyond imagination. 50 votes have been cast till now. Honestly,I expected maximum 30-40 votes.

    Probably in 1-2 days.

    Should I remove The White Lotus ladies from the ballot?

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    Camryn
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    #1204522546

    Both Winslet and Sudeikis are easily the closest thing we have to a lock right now, but if I had to pick a safer one as of now I’d go with Winslet, because on top of having an extremely popular and acclaimed show backing her up, none of her current rivals would make much sense or have a strong enough narrative – for as good as both her show and her performance in it are, I don’t see anybody rushing to get Qualley a win, for instance.

    On the other hand, while Sudeikis leads a show just as popular and acclaimed, he’d at least be going against two beloved industry veterans who I could see the older demographic especially back up in Martin and Short. We also have evidence of comedic shows starring iconic actors and targeted to an older crowd overperforming frequently here with Grace and Frankie and The Kominsky Method – albeit both on Netflix which definitely plays a factor – so there could be a pattern there as well.

    Regardless, it goes without saying that betting against either of them at this point would be foolish.

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    JV
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    #1204522626

    The White Lotus could easily win Ensemble IMO. It’s Stranger Things all over again. The whole narrative of the show is centered around the ensemble, and the performances are baitier than those from Succession.

    However, Bartlett would be behind Cox, Strong and Billy Crudup (who I’m predicting to win due to vote split).

    Coolidge would have a real shot, though.

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    wolfali
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    #1204522639

    The argument that Only Murders is going to benefit from having a lot of buzz right now could literally be applied to Ted Lasso as well though.. it’s coming off 3 acting wins and trended on Twitter every week and has only grown in popularity since the first season.

    Well the same could have been applied to The Handmaid’s Tale when it came off of three acting Emmy wins and a dominance in popular culture in retrospect to This is Us and we saw what happened there.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Luca
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    #1204522643

    Well the same could have been applied to The Handmaid’s Tale when it came off of three acting Emmy wins and a dominance in popular culture in retrospect to This is Us and we saw what happened there.

    The difference being that Ted Lasso has already won a SAG Award, which The Handmaid’s Tale has yet to do.

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    Karen Gill.
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    #1204522645

    Who knew dropping the link in Best Actress Film thread results in so many people voting. I did so as I realised that a lot of SAG members are mostly film concerned and allowing more people to vote results in a more accurate result with name checking,show checking,word of mouth, favouritism etc taking shape.

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    wolfali
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    #1204522648

    The difference being that Ted Lasso has already won a SAG Award, which The Handmaid’s Tale has yet to do.

    Sure. But my point is more that being the incumbent Emmy winner doesn’t necessarily guarantee you the ensemble win. Another example being Fleabag losing the ensemble prize when it was more or less the buzziest comedy in the world to a season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel that went home with zero acting Emmys.

    I’m still predicting Ted Lasso to win ensemble don’t get me wrong but if Only Murders in the Building is as big as a contender as we’re predicting it to be I don’t see why its implausible to consider it to take ensemble when its perhaps the most ensemble driven show of the bunch (which is something we’ve seen SAG voters gravitate towards a lot). It’s not like This is Us had any SAG wins either going into the ceremony it beat The Handmaid’s Tale at.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Luca
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    #1204522656

    Sure. But my point is more that being the incumbent Emmy winner doesn’t necessarily guarantee you the ensemble win. Another example being Fleabag losing the ensemble prize when it was more or less the buzziest comedy in the world to a season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel that went home with zero acting Emmys. I’m still predicting Ted Lasso to win ensemble don’t get me wrong but if Only Murders in the Building is as big as a contender as we’re predicting it to be I don’t see why its implausible to consider it to take ensemble when its perhaps the most ensemble driven show of the bunch (which is something we’ve seen SAG voters gravitate towards a lot). It’s not like This is Us had any SAG wins either going into the ceremony it beat The Handmaid’s Tale at.

    Sure, I don’t disagree with that, but I meant in retrospect. You were essentially comparing Handmaid’s to Ted Lasso in this case, which IMO doesn’t quite work since SAG obvs just doesn’t love THT as much as we initially expected, while Ted has at least won an Actor, showing that there is some love for it — love that will almost undoubtedly even further crystallize this year (I think we can all agree that it was already the runner-up in ensemble last year).

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    wolfali
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    #1204522661

    SAG obvs just doesn’t love THT as much as we initially expected, 

    Is that really the case though? The ensemble loss for season 1 could indicate that but considering how Foy went on to win the Emmy for season 2 of The Crown and Oh was going to win the Emmy for Killing Eve until Jodie Comer grabbed the buzz I think at least Moss’ losses have been understandable in hindsight. They also did nominate Moss for season 3 (over Sandra Oh and Zendaya) even as the Emmys didn’t.

    This is partly why I do think she can win this year (although if The White Lotus goes drama I guess Coolidge is probably looking strong). Almost a bit like an Emily Blunt type win. She’s had the support for years to win but she just hasn’t had the circumstances but now she’s competing in a field without a frontrunner for what most who have seen this season of The Handmaid’s Tale agree is her best performance on the show.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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