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Ted Lasso is 50/50 I would guess for making winter awards eligibility. They are apparently running about a month behind production schedule on Season 3. Some interviews had people saying they were hoping for Season 3 being released before end of this year but there was a FYC interview with their makeup person that ended saying Season 3 would premiere in 2023. Obviously this would change any of these early SAG predictions if Ted Lasso sits this one out.
I think it will be a very interesting comedy ensemble race if Apple decides to air Ted Lasso across the winter (and therefore through to 2023) because Abbott Elementary will also be airing during voting which will probably help its chances of winning if it gets into ensemble and Maisel (which started rolling cameras earlier than it did for season 4) will also probably be airing its final season during voting as well.
If those three shows and Barry and Hacks (both of which could score big at the Emmys) end up being our ensemble lineup we could have a rare instance in which all 5 ensemble nominees are competitive for the win.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
I think it will be a very interesting comedy ensemble race if Apple decides to air Ted Lasso across the winter (and therefore through to 2023) because Abbott Elementary will also be airing during voting which will probably help its chances of winning if it gets into ensemble and Maisel (which started rolling cameras earlier than it did for season 4) will also probably be airing its final season during voting as well.
If those three shows and Barry and Hacks (both of which could score big at the Emmys) end up being our ensemble lineup we could have a rare instance in which all 5 ensemble nominees are competitive for the win.
Does anyone know the eligibility period rules for the winter awards for TV shows? The Emmys used to have the hanging episodes rule where a majority of the episodes needed to air for the whole season to count as eligible but they changed going forward that all episodes in a season must air before the May cut off date. This is an interesting point with network shows like Abbott (I presume 1/2 of S1 counts with 1/2 of S2?) or if Ted Lasso starts airing in November when some but not all episodes may have aired by December/January.
Does anyone know the eligibility period rules for the winter awards for TV shows? The Emmys used to have the hanging episodes rule where a majority of the episodes needed to air for the whole season to count as eligible but they changed going forward that all episodes in a season must air before the May cut off date. This is an interesting point with network shows like Abbott (I presume 1/2 of S1 counts with 1/2 of S2?) or if Ted Lasso starts airing in November when some but not all episodes may have aired by December/January.
I don’t know if there’s a specific limit but The Good Place aired four episodes in 2020 and was eligible at SAG during the 2021 winter season. Abbott should be fine considering it will have 20 or so episodes (with both season 1 and the first half of season 2) eligible by the time voting begins.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Why don’t you predict LOTR in Ensemble?
The Boys for Drama Ensemble!!!
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
You only need four episodes airing in the calendar year to qualify for SAG. That’s partially why the 1st half of Grace and Frankie’s final season from August 2021 was only the four episodes.
Why don’t you predict LOTR in Ensemble?
They’re mostly unknowns and we have no real idea of the structure because of the vague nature of the adaptation. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen (it will be seen enough) but there isn’t much information to go on.
The Boys for Drama Ensemble!!!
I actually think they have a big shot. This season seems crazy buzzy right now, enough to last to winter award season.
I think Lord of the Rings stands a strong chance if it ends up being a big contender (I don’t think the mostly unknown aspect would hurt it considering Bridgerton got in) but I think the main reason I don’t have it in my ensemble predictions is that I’m not entirely sure how actor-y it will be. The Crown, Severance, Ozark, Yellowstone, House of the Dragon, Stranger Things, The Handmaid’s Tale, Better Call Saul, Bridgerton, This is Us and The Boys all are or look like they are shows that will be driven by their ensemble of characters whilst I don’t know how character driven The Lord of the Rings will actually be which makes me reluctant to predict it to do well when it comes to acting with sight unseen.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
I actually think they have a big shot. This season seems crazy buzzy right now, enough to last to winter award season.
I think if Prime make The Boys an ensemble priority after three seasons of goodwill, they could definitely happen. Their ability to do that is probably dependent on whether LoTR is received as an actor-skewing show (or…good), which as Wolfali said, there’s a good chance it’s not.
I wonder if Jeff Bridges could randomly show up in the drama actor category. The Old Man seems to be a big commercial hit and we know how much SAG love their veterans.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Stranger Things definitely worthy of an ensemble win
They taking it
With how badly Parks and Recreation and The Good Place performed at SAG, I hesitate to predict Abbott Elementary to be win-competitive. Depending on how it performs at the Emmys, it might not even be nominated at all.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
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