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SAG 2023 Television Predictions

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  • wolfali
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    #1205168593

    Am I the only person who thinks Christina Applegate could upset if she gets nominated? I feel like she has a lot of industry momentum right now and I’m starting wonder if Ralph and Smart both being the recently crowned beloved Emmy winning vets here could open this race up a bit.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    lenatroid
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    Jul 12th, 2022
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    #1205168641

    I’ve been thinking that too. She has the momentum, she’s universally beloved, she is a subtle SAG darling, and with Dead to Me looking like her final role, I could see SAG voters wanting to finally award her.

    Mabel Mora enthusiast.


    torilinnea
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    #1205168753

    Had to pop in to say it would be so cruel if Maisel got dropped the first year Luke Kirby would finally be included in the ensemble nom. I also was kinda surprised to see that their q&a is in LA. I’m so used to them doing stuff in New York lol.

    I really need to finally sit down and watch The Bear this week. It’s the only comedy with a chance that I haven’t seen and just can’t place it.


    wolfali
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    #1205168914

    The Bear is an interesting one because I do think there does feel like a bit too much confidence in it getting an ensemble nod (I feel fairly content predicting Jeremy Allen White even though I’m not confident, the buzz surrounding his performance reminds me a bit of Michaela Coel’s a few years ago and he should be familiar to the nomination committee due to Shameless). But at the same time I feel like FX is really pushing for it hard here and I wonder if its popularity on streaming could help it to avoid the fate of its FX comedy/Drama siblings here. Until last year it was largely unprecedented for a HBO show to max out the way Succession did with the guild in individual nominations and whilst that can be credited in part to Succession being the reigning drama series champion and the winter awards sweeper, I think it’s worth mentioning how much of a popularity boom the show had with streaming that other HBO dramas didn’t necessarily have.

    I can see a similar thing happening with The Bear this year. It’s the first time in a long time (perhaps even ever) that FX have actually had a hit continuing show in contention.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    torilinnea
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    #1205168940

    Yeah, as someone on the outside, I definitely feel the buzz for the show. I’m just not sure if I feel it for an ensemble nom. Obviously a show about a restaurant must have a solid ensemble, but I think so much of what I’ve heard is mostly about Jeremy’s performance. Ayo too but that category is so full. I know episode 7(?) is a big thing as well, but I assume for other guild awards reasons.


    Victor
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    #1205168952

    I keep changing between Barry and The Bear, i feel confident about the other 4.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205168967

    Yeah, as someone on the outside, I definitely feel the buzz for the show. I’m just not sure if I feel it for an ensemble nom. Obviously a show about a restaurant must have a solid ensemble, but I think so much of what I’ve heard is mostly about Jeremy’s performance. Ayo too but that category is so full. I know episode 7(?) is a big thing as well, but I assume for other guild awards reasons.

    I don’t feel like it’s an ensemble nom either. I feel it for Jeremy, Ayo, a little for Ebon, but that’s about it. I do think there is a chance they just get Jeremy. There’s also just something about it that doesn’t feel like their classic comedy ensemble, either.


    wolfali
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    #1205168995

    Yeah, as someone on the outside, I definitely feel the buzz for the show. I’m just not sure if I feel it for an ensemble nom. Obviously a show about a restaurant must have a solid ensemble, but I think so much of what I’ve heard is mostly about Jeremy’s performance. Ayo too but that category is so full. I know episode 7(?) is a big thing as well, but I assume for other guild awards reasons.

    It’s very ensemble oriented but it’s not a show that necessarily relies solely on its ensemble to work. I guess compared to other contenders it’s ensemble is more important than Hacks‘ and Only Murders in the Building‘s are but it wouldn’t feel like a completely different show if some of the actors in the ensemble disappeared for a couple of episodes like it would in Abbott Elementary, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel or even Barry. White, Edebiri and Moss-Bachrach give the performances that will get the bulk of attention on an individual level just like Brosnahan, Borstein and Shalhoub or Sudeikis, Waddingham and Temple did during the first seasons of their shows but just like Maisel and Ted Lasso during their first seasons that doesn’t necessarily mean the ensemble behind the principal actors are glorified extras. They’re just more in the background. Although The Bear is very different from both shows on a tonal level I suspect in its second season we’ll see some of the peripheral characters have more expanded roles (which we already saw a bit of towards the end of this season with some of them).

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    torilinnea
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    #1205169026

    Definitely seems like a season two nominee if the quality and buzz hold up and the world expands for other characters. I think at this point, like Victor, I would consider switching it for Barry if anything rather than Maisel. I just don’t see how they drop a show that has never lost here when nominated. I think I feel the same way about Shalhoub too.


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205169030

    It’s not going to happen, but I would like to see What We Do In The Shadows here. To me that show is the epitome of an ensemble.


    torilinnea
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    #1205169040

    I’ll never understand why WWDITS has never clicked with actors here or at the Emmys. It would easily be my pick if I had a vote.


    adriandecker770
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    Oct 2nd, 2022
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    #1205169048

    I know it won’t be nominated but the ensemble in Reservation Dogs is just unbelievable. WWDITS also deserves the nomination and as a purely “comedy” ensemble it would be deserving, although I feel like it’s rare to see a sitcom like Abbott get the ensemble so perfectly right out of the gate so I’d give it the win just barely. WWDITS needs to be nominated though.


    wolfali
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    #1205169061

    Definitely seems like a season two nominee if the quality and buzz hold up and the world expands for other characters. I think at this point, like Victor, I would consider switching it for Barry if anything rather than Maisel. I just don’t see how they drop a show that has never lost here when nominated. I think I feel the same way about Shalhoub too.

    I can see Shalhoub missing because they have sometimes randomly dropped people after they’ve won and he feels like someone who could have been around 3rd during nominations here in his strongest year but I agree that it’s hard to see the show just suddenly drop off so much like that. Not only did it pull off a near sweep against FLEABAG the last time it was eligible but I feel like the actors really like their period pieces (which is probably why The Crown and Downton Abbey have performed so well with the guild even when they haven’t with the Emmys) and there’s just a lot of goodwill behind the ensemble. There’s probably a reason it got more above the line acting nominations than Hacks and just as many as Barry at the Emmys this year in spite of being a weaker contender overall than both.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205169106

    For context, the  year to date Wikipedia page views for all ensembles with 10 or more people predicting them (given how gen pop SAG can be)

    Note both Squid Game and Ted Lasso were higher than anything on these lists last year.

    Drama

    1.       House of The Dragon 17.03m

    2.       Stranger Things 13.62m

    3.       Euphoria 11.74m

    4.       The Lord of The Rings 10.9m

    5.       The Boys 8.95m

    6.       Better Call Saul 8.07m

    7.       Ozark 7.51m

    8.       Yellowstone 6.12m

    9.       Severance 4.87m

    10.   The Crown 4.15m

    11.   The Handmaid’s Tale 3.63m

    12.   The White Lotus 3.53m

    13.   Yellowjackets 2.95m

    14.   This Is Us 2.17m

    15.   Pachinko 1.63m

    Comedy

    1.       Only Murders in The Building 4.05m

    2.       Wednesday 3.123m

    3.       The Marvelous Mrs Maisel 2.33m

    4.       The Bear 2.32m

    5.       Barry 2.06m

    6.       What We Do In The Shadows 1.97m

    7.       Abbott Elementary 1.95m

    8.       Heartstopper 1.93m

    9.       Saturday Night Live 1.79m

    10.   Atlanta 1.46m

    11.   Hacks 1.25m

    12.   Dead to Me 1.218m

    13.   Reservation Dogs 0.900m

     


    wolfali
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    #1205169127

    10.   The Crown 4.15m

    That’s a good figure for it seeing as the season only came out two weeks ago. It doesn’t seem to have had as strong a peak as season 4 did so I wonder if the season is just something people are progressively catching up on.

    Better Call Saul is the highest it has ever been on there no?

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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