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Pundits have become obsessed with Yellowstone ever since it got in at SAG last year and the Globes have a history of sometimes throwing lone acting nods to popular and culturally significant shows that the Emmys never touch (Katherine Langford in 2017, Eva Green in 2015, going back further Sarah Michelle Gellar etc) so I’m not really reading into how the show has performed so far.
If SAG do nominate it again (even if it’s just a lone Costner nod) though then I will consider it more actively at the Emmys because with how ultra competitive this field already is it would be quite something for it to sneak back in. At least one of Better Call Saul, The Crown, House of the Dragon, Ozark, Severance and The White Lotus are getting snubbed here and those are the top contenders. There are also perennial nominees like The Handmaid’s Tale and Stranger Things that can make it in as also rans and shows like Euphoria that performed really well at the Emmys and could in theory break through here. So for Yellowstone to be able to get any nominations here would suggest quite a bit of support for it. Even with its Emmys shut out this year it was still probably ahead of something like This is Us that it made it in over at PGA and SAG and did just as poorly as it at the Emmys.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Unless I’m mistaken, this category has never had three actresses from one show nominated in the whole history of SAG.
Well prior to last year the drama actor category here never had three actors from one show nominated in the history of the SAG awards. I think Abbott Elementary is more like Mare of Easttown here than Succession and The Crown (Brunson and Ralph will get in and Williams might) but it wouldn’t surprise me if the guild went all out for it and nominated 3 actresses and then gave the last two spots to Applegate and Smart seeing they’ve been doing stuff like that more and more recently with top contenders.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
I’m pretty sure Janelle James will pop up just because I’m not predicting her just like Kieran Culkin earlier this year.
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
Well prior to last year the drama actor category here never had three actors from one show nominated in the history of the SAG awards. I think Abbott Elementary is more like Mare of Easttown here than Succession and The Crown (Brunson and Ralph will get in and Williams might) but it wouldn’t surprise me if the guild went all out for it and nominated 3 actresses and then gave the last two spots to Applegate and Smart seeing they’ve been doing stuff like that more and more recently with top contenders.
Yeah, it wouldn’t shock me, but I think the Mare comparison is probably apt. I think James is probably the most likely to miss.
Winners predictions (before the nominations it’s pointless, but always fun)
Drama: The White Lotus
Comedy: Abbott Elementary
Drama Actor: No idea. No one makes sense. Probably Odenkirk or Scott (although I have Turturro making it in)
Drama Actress: Jennifer Coolidge
Comedy Actor: Jeremy Allen White
Comedy Actress: Sheryl Lee Ralph
Limited Actor: Evan Peters
Limited Actress: Amanda SeyfriedFor female comedy actor, odds have all the nominees from just two shows and I just don’t see how that could happen. I mean, I guess it could but I just feel like that could be overkill. I think Abbott will get two of those spots but Einbider will miss. The other two spots will probably go to Applegate and one of Ortega/Gomez/Cardellini/Cuoco
For female comedy actor, odds have all the nominees from just two shows and I just don’t see how that could happen. I mean, I guess it could but I just feel like that could be overkill. I think Abbott will get two of those spots but Einbider will miss. The other two spots will probably go to Applegate and one of Ortega/Gomez/Cardellini/Cuoco
They also have always had a Netflix contender here since 2014. Applegate makes the most sense. I like Einbinder but I’m never entirely convinced she’s that close, I feel like the press and critics might like her more than the actors branch. She could have been as low as about fifth at last cycle’s Emmys. She had multiple vote split situations potentially to her advantage.
People underestimate SAG’s Netflix bias when it comes to noms. Kominsky Method and Sandra Oh were out of the top 5 when it was fairly obvious they would end up getting something seeing Netflix’s history. Them managing to get Negga in for Passing on the film side last year, even over people like Ellis, is probably the ultimate proof of how much the guild favours them. My rule of thumb is to predict at least one Netflix nom in each category, only skipping doing this when they don’t have any obvious potential contenders in the race (like Comedy Actor this year).
The odds are not predicting any Netflix noms in Comedy right now when they have two strong shows in Dead to Me and Wednesday. It’s likelier that Netflix gets dual noms in both Ensemble and Actress than it completely missing both. The only real confusion is what combo to go with.
A Negroni. Sbagliato. With Prosecco in it.
Drama Ensemble: The Crown
Drama Actor: Odenkirk
Drama Actress: Zendaya
Comedy Ensemble: Abbott Elementary
Comedy Actor: Hader
Comedy Actress: Smart
Limited Actor: Stan
Limited Actress: Seyfried"EGOT" and "Triple Crown of Acting" winner: VIOLA DAVIS!!!!
People underestimate SAG’s Netflix bias when it comes to noms. Kominsky Method and Sandra Oh were out of the top 5 when it was fairly obvious they would end up getting something seeing Netflix’s history. Them managing to get Negga in for Passing on the film side last year, even over people like Ellis, is probably the ultimate proof of how much the guild favours them. My rule of thumb is to predict at least one Netflix nom in each category, only skipping doing this when they don’t have any obvious potential contenders in the race (like Comedy Actor this year). The odds are not predicting any Netflix noms in Comedy right now when they have two strong shows in Dead to Me and Wednesday. It’s likelier that Netflix gets dual noms in both Ensemble and Actress than it completely missing both. The only real confusion is what combo to go with.
Completely agree. At the moment, I have both Ortega and Applegate in actress and Wednesday in ensemble (that visibility is going to have to count for something). Actress is such a difficult category to predict because there are at least 20 viable options. I think it all comes down to how many Abbott women get nominated. ATM, I am betting on Brunson and James, the latter of whom really reminds me of Jean Smart for Mare and Kieran Culkin for Succession, if that makes sense, but I could also see just Brunson making it if there is no consensus on the No. 2 pick from the show and other contenders get enough votes.
Actress is such a difficult category to predict because there are at least 20 viable options.
Yeah, I completely agree with this. There are so many people that could happen – there are eight former nominees in this category (only Smart is predicted) Gomez is a Globe nominee in a show that’s already had two actors nominated and an ensemble nom, there’s always the possibility of an SNL goodbye nom or a makeup nom for Goldberg, and Abbott, Wednesday, and The Bear are untested with this group.
There’s every possibility Edebiri is pretty strong and it’s not unheard of for SAG to do a switcheroo on actress preferences (i.e swapping one of the Abbott women for Lisa Ann Walter, who might have just missed out).
Broad Netflix shows like Wednesday also have a habit of throwing newbie/veteran combos at SAG (i.e Linney/Garner, Camp/Taylor-Joy, Ryder/Brown
I have Wednesday in ensemble but i have no clue who to drop for Ortega
It’ll probably be BrosnahanFYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
I have Wednesday in ensemble but i have no clue who to drop for Ortega
It’ll probably be BrosnahanDo you have three Abbott actresses ?
Could be wrong, but I think Sheryl Lee Ralph is a very easy nom. I honestly think she’s more locked than Quinta. Emmy winner, Tony winner, stagy veteran, having a career ressurgence.
And I think she gets the win if nominated.
Janelle James seems to be a social media/critics thing only. I don’t think industry really cares about that particular role, or have the same level of passion as those.
Do you have three Abbott actresses ?
Quinta + Sheryl only
And Applegate, Brosnahan and SmartFYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
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