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Quinta + Sheryl only And Applegate, Brosnahan and Smart
Drop Brosnahan, she has neither the urgency or recency bias of Applegate. They can always revert back to her for the final season or nominate Maisel in series.
I’m actually only predicting one of the abbott ladies to get in
Oscars FYC
Emma Thompson i’m ‘Good Luck to You Leo Grande’
Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories
TV Winter FYC
Dead to Me in all categories
Comedy actress is kinda the most competitive category. I’m currently going with Smart, Brunson, Ralph, Brosnahan and Ortega.
SAG has always reacted quickly to Netflix big hits (Stranger Things, Bridgerton, Squid Game) and nominated them immediately in both ensemble and individual acting so I’m betting on the same happening for Wednesday.
Getting 3 nominations in the same category is pretty rare, so I’m not really considering James happening for Abbott alongside Brunson and Ralph. I’m also not predicting it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the show overall underperforms. The Good Place kept getting snubbed and even though Abbott is a stronger show, it’s possible being a network show makes it struggle (I’m aware of the Hulu release).
Mrs Maisel is a huge SAG favorite and their fyc screenings apparently went very well this year again, so I’m going with Brosnahan for the last spot. I’m still hesitating with Applegate because SAG likes Dead To Me and s3 did well in the US according to Nielsen charts.
Lastly, Cuoco has been doing very well so far. She was previously nominated for s1 and so was the ensemble, so I think she has more of a shot than people are giving her credit. But I’m going with her missing just by a few, considering the competitiveness of the category.
I don’t really think Einbinder has a shot and I’m quite baffled to see her this high in the prediction center, tbh.
Getting 3 nominations in the same category is pretty rare, so I’m not really considering James happening for Abbott alongside Brunson and Ralph. I’m also not predicting it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the show overall underperforms. The Good Place kept getting snubbed and even though Abbott is a stronger show, it’s possible being a network show makes it struggle (I’m aware of the Hulu release).
It’s happened three times in 162 categories – never in limited (male or female), never in comedy actress, only once in comedy actor (when they stretched to Garrett in season 7 of Everybody Loves Raymond, and after multiple SAG noms and Boyle and Romano being previous nominees).
The two other times it’s happened were for the Succession S3 men last year (wedged between consecutive drama wins, and with a dearth of pandemic content), and The Crown S4 in 2020, a sweep pandemic year where two of the actresses were prior SAG nominees/winners. I know the critics and press are deeply in Abbott’s corner, but that and the actors don’t necessarily always align. Three actresses for an early run comedy with no prior SAG history is indeed a lot.
Just for reference on what content is trending where top 10 votes by gender and age on IMDB as of the end of the year
Some of these are obvious but some not quite as much
Also should make it really obvious why Inventing Anna keeps happening
New shows
18-29 men (roughly Gen Z and young millennials)1. House of The Dragon
2. Moon Knight
3. The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power
4. Obi-Wan Kenobi
5. She-Hulk
6. Peacemaker
7. Wednesday
8. Severance
9. Dahmer
10. Ms Marvel
11. The Sandman
12. Andor
13. Reacher
14. 1899
15. The Bear
16. The Terminal List
17. Halo
18. Black Bird
19. Heartstopper
20. Archive 81 (cancelled)
30-44 men (roughly millennials and young gen x)
1. The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power
2. House of The Dragon
3. Obi-Wan Kenobi
4. Moon Knight
5. She-Hulk
6. Severance
7. The Sandman
8. Reacher
9. Wednesday
10. Peacemaker
11. Dahmer
12. Andor
13. The Terminal List
14. Ms Marvel
15. Halo
16. 1899
17. Black Bird
18. The Bear
19. Archive 81 (cancelled)
20. The Watcher
45+ men (gen X up.)
1. The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power
2. Reacher
3. Obi-Wan Kenobi
4. House of The Dragon
5. Moon Knight
6. Wednesday
7. Andor
8. The Sandman
9. The Terminal List
10. She-Hulk
11. Severance
12. Peacemaker
13. The Old Man
14. Dahmer
15. The Peripheral
16. Halo
17. Star Trek: Strange New Worlds
18. Inventing Anna
19. Black Bird
20. 1899
18-29 women (roughly gen Z)
1. Wednesday
2. House of The Dragon
3. Dahmer
4. Moon Knight
5. Inventing Anna
6. The Sandman
7. Heartstopper
8. The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power
9. The Woman in The House
10. Severance
11. The Watcher
12. Obi-Wan Kenobi
13. She-Hulk
14. The Summer I Turned Pretty
15. 1899
16. The Bear
17. Archive 81 (cancelled)
18. Ms Marvel
19. First Kill (cancelled)
20. Our Flag Means Death30-44 women (roughly millennials/young gen X)
1. Wednesday
2. House of The Dragon
3. Inventing Anna
4. The Sandman
5. The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power
6. Dahmer
7. Moon Knight
8. Severance
9. The Woman in The House
10. The Watcher
11. Obi-Wan Kenobi
12. The Bear
13. Archive 81 (canc)
14. She-Hulk
15. Anatomy of A Scandal
16. 1899
17. Black Bird
18. Reacher
19. Pieces of Her
20. Pam and Tommy
45+ women (gen X and up)
1. Wednesday
2. Reacher
3. Inventing Anna
4. House of The Dragon
5. The Sandman
6. The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power
7. The Gilded Age
8. The Lincoln Lawyer
9. Severance
10. Dahmer
11. Obi-Wan Kenobi
12. The Woman in The House
13. Pieces of Her
14. The Terminal List
15. The Watcher
16. Anatomy of A Scandal
17. Moon Knight
18. The Old Man
19. The Bear
20. Black Bird
I don’t know who to choose between Ozark and Stranger Things for ensemble.
Now watch both get in.FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
I don’t know who to choose between Ozark and Stranger Things for ensemble. Now watch both getting in.
I feel like we need to account for genre balance /SAG’s bias against – Severance, ST, and HoTD all fall in that category to an extent. They did go for Westworld, GoT and ST a few years ago though.
I feel like we need to account for genre balance /SAG’s bias against – Severance, ST, and HoTD all fall in that category to an extent. They did go for Westworld, GoT and ST a few years ago though.
Yeah but Stranger Things always performed very well here, and s4 was it’s biggest ever, so in a very populist SAG, that can only help. But again, HOTD was also very big.
I view Severance more as a drama with scifi elements than the other way around honestly.Ozark is my question mark because it’s been ages, but they love this show as well, so yikes.
I honestly think Better Call Saul is out and i am shocked at how high it is at the odds, but who knows
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
I agree comedy actress is probably the hardest to predict right now. I currently have Smart, Brunson, Ralph, Applegate and Ortega.
The top three is pretty much locked in I guess: Smart is probably winning again, everybody loves Ralph and Brunson being the face of Abbott makes me confident she is in as well.
Applegate feels really likely considering her narrative and I can’t see them passing over Ortega, the show is just too big at this point and I do think the ensemble could get in over Barry as well.
I’m still not convinced Brosnahan is missing, especially knowing actors love the show (it literally won Ensemble over Fleabag!) and the fact that I’m predicting it for both Ensemble and Shaloub, but I guess she can get back in for the last season.
Gomez and Cuoco both have a distant shot. Don’t see it for Cardellini, James and Einbinder as they’ll easily get overshadowed by their co-stars.
Applegate feels really likely considering her narrative and I can’t see them passing over Ortega, the show is just too big at this point and I do think the ensemble could get in over Barry as well. I’m still not convinced Brosnahan is missing, especially knowing actors love the show (it literally won Ensemble over Fleabag!) and the fact that I’m predicting it for both Ensemble and Shaloub, but I guess she can get back in for the last season.
I do think it’s possible they just go with Wednesday in ensemble and keep Brosnahan. Ortega is trending so high it’s obscuring just how high the other supporting actresses are trending
This is the Wikipedia page views for the Abbott women (Quinta, Sheryl and Janelle) since S2 has started versus the Wednesday women – the Abbott women are the purple/green/brown lines along the bottom, the Wednesday ladies (sans Ortega) are the Nov-Dec peak.
I suppose that could be indication they could push Ortega plus someone else through but I feel like the more realistic situation there is an ensemble nom (they probably should be higher than they are in the prediction centre though).
Applegate’s happening and I do genuinely think she could win. She has the momentum, she has the prestige, and she is somewhat of a SAG darling; they’ll obviously realise it’s the last time they’ll be able to award her and I don’t think they’ll pass the opportunity up.
ACADEMY AWARD WINNER MICHELLE YEOH.
Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series:
Colin Firth – The Staircase (HBO Max)
Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven (FX on Hulu)
Richard Jenkins – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Evan Peters – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Sebastian Stan – Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
ALT: Taron Egerton – Blackbird (Apple TV+)Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series:
Jessica Chastain – George & Tammy (Showtime)
Julia Garner – Inventing Anna (Netflix)
Lily James – Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
Niecy Nash – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout (Hulu)
ALT: Toni Collette – The Staircase (HBO Max)Male Actor in a Comedy Series:
Bill Hader – Barry (HBO)
Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White – The Bear (FX on Hulu)
Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
ALT: Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)Female Actor in a Comedy Series:
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Janelle James – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Jenna Ortega – Wednesday (Netflix)
Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Jean Smart – Hacks (HBO Max)
ALT: Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)Male Actor in a Drama Series:
F. Murray Abraham – The White Lotus (HBO)
Jason Bateman – Ozark (Netflix)
Kevin Costner – Yellowstone (Paramount Network)
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul (AMC)
Adam Scott – Severance (Apple TV+)
ALT: Jonathan Pryce – The Crown (Netflix)Female Actor in a Drama Series:
Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus (HBO)
Julia Garner – Ozark (Netflix)
Laura Linney – Ozark (Netflix)
Imelda Staunton – The Crown (Netflix)
Zendaya – Euphoria (HBO)
ALT: Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown (Netflix)Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Hacks (HBO Max)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Wednesday (Netflix)
ALT: Barry (HBO)Ensemble in a Drama Series:
The Crown (Netflix)
House of the Dragon (HBO)
Ozark (Netflix)
Severance (Apple TV+)
The White Lotus (HBO)
ALT: Better Call Saul (AMC)Applegate’s happening and I do genuinely think she could win. She has the momentum, she has the prestige, and she is somewhat of a SAG darling; they’ll obviously realise it’s the last time they’ll be able to award her and I don’t think they’ll pass the opportunity up.
Yeah Applegate feels like a no brainer. Even if Dead to Me loses steam by the Emmys, she feels super likely at SAG.
Limited/Movie Actor
1. Evan Peters – Locked
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2. Andrew Garfield – It feels weird to have someone who is essentially an also ran so high here but it looks like a category that’s weak enough for the three consensus Emmy nominees to hang on. I think what makes me put Garfield this high in particular is that with both his stature as an actor and how well received his performance was it’s hard to see people caring about this show but not checking him off (almost like Cynthia Erivo last year). On the contrary people like Stan, Egerton and even Firth suffer from unfavourable comparisons to their co-stars.
3. Sebastian Stan – As a secondary lead of a mid tier contender there’s always a world where he gets snubbed whilst James gets in but that hasn’t really happened so far so I assume that will continue on in with the SAG committee.
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4. Taron Egerton – I still think it remains to be seen how Black Bird is going to perform. The HFPA clearly loved it but that has really been it so far with the show having been conspicuously absent from end of year lists in spite of otherwise being one of the highest rated limited series of the year. I assume the sheer popularity will drive one of the show’s leads across the finish line even if it does under and Egerton is the bigger name of the two leads and has already been nominated before (as well as actively campaigning). I guess the only reason I have him this low is because I don’t get the sense that the passion for this performance is that overwhelming.
5. Colin Firth – It feels strange to have an Emmy nominated performance from a veteran in a HBO series this low but at the same time there just feels like so much apathy towards The Staircase and the show doesn’t really feel like the most conventional actors bait (at least in retrospect to say Dahmer or Black Bird) that I just wonder, will the committee even bother? He almost feels like a default nominee and I just don’t know if SAG will even bother when they have other more fresh choices to choose from. Admittedly though I did say the same thing about Oscar Isaac last year and The Staircase did perform a little better at the Emmys than Scenes From a Marriage did.
6. Paul Walter Hauser – This feels like a BELOVED performamce and it’s one of the baitiest in this category. Whilst Toni Collette is obviously Toni Collette it wouldn’t surprise me if this was an unbelievable situation where the supporting lead gets in over the principal lead because their performances stand out much more.
7. Richard Jenkins – Has the visibility and industry respect to get in but double nominees only tend to happen in these limited categories for shows that are acting two-handers (Sharp Objects, The Act) or major win competitive contenders (The Night Of, The People vs OJ Simpson, Mare of Easttown) and after over-predicting The White Lotus and Maid here last year I don’t want to make that same risk with Dahmer.
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8. Michael Shannon – Showtime seems to be campaigning the hell out of this show and whilst it is buzzless it’s an industry bait biopic that feels very visible right now with Jessica Chastain getting a
name-checknomination at the Globes. Wouldn’t surprise me if it is the show that capitalises from a White Lotus-less field.9. Steve Carell – Has a really strong prior track record with the guild and people seem to really love his performance on this show. I feel like Gleeson getting in at the Globes and CC speaks more towards the disparity in competition in those categories than Gleeson being particularly stronger so if The Patient really is a contender I feel like he should be the one who slips in here. Wouldn’t be the first time SAG nominated him but snubbed his co-lead who made it in at the other winter awards without him.
10. Himesh Patel – I had been predicting him for a while but I feel like Station Eleven and Yellowjackets are kind of in the same boat as other shows that have submitted to the guilds with hanging episodes like The Good Place and Euphoria and that whilst they’re on the ballot, they aired so long ago and were recognised so long ago that the industry doesn’t really care enough about them at this point in time to check them off unless they’re struggling with other options.
11. Domnhnall Gleeson – Made it in at the Globes.
12. Ray Liotta – Feels like the type of veteran who’d get a post-humous nod but has to climb over two co-stars for that to happen.
13. Seth Rogen – See Gleeson.
14. Jesse Eisenberg – Fleishman in Trouble has already taken off at the winter awards for Claire Danes and it seems to have really picked up buzz these past few weeks. Feels like the type of show that is too under-seen for SAG but then takes off later at the Emmys though (à la Yellowjackets, WandaVision, Station Eleven).
15. Ben Whishaw/Chaske Spencer – Not happening but hopefully my inclusion of them here serves as an indictment of just how worthy they are of this type of awards recognition for lurkers on this site to seek out their shows and performances to see for themelseces.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Limited/Movie Actress
1. Amanda Seyfried – Winning
2. Lily James – Everything this awards body loves and more. Pam and Tommy would have to be rejected for her to miss.
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3. Julia Garner – This is an interesting one to me because Inventing Anna feels a lot like the Seven Seconds/Self-Made/Emily in Paris type of filler Netflix series that gets in at the Emmys due to visibility and a lack of other viable options but then stumbles at the winter awards because there isn’t really much of a void there (I know she got in at the Globes). Alas this is a very weak field.
4. Niecy Nash – I feel like if Monster is a contender there shouldn’t really be a reason for her to miss. The field is wide open, the show was a hit, it’s Netflix and Nash is an Emmy nominated character actress people are very familiar with. I guess the only reason I have her on the lower end of this category is because for some reason who seems to be the ostensie female lead of their show her screen time seems a bit spread out? I can see the actors just nominating Peters and then calling it a day.
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5. Jessica Chastain – It’s no secret that SAG are found of biopics and that they have a history of nominating Showtime limited series leads who end up being too small for the Emmys but strike enough passion to get in here. The Globe nod is really the reason I have her in my predictions because I think the committee will take more notice of her now she has gotten it.
6. Toni Collette – Has the visibility but The Staircase aired a million years ago and Collette hasn’t gotten in anywhere for this supporting performance. The weak field helps her but at the same time if a tree branch fallls it isn’t going to neccessarily rise back up as the tree falls.
7. Emily Blunt – I really want to predict her just as much as I don’t want to predict her. SAG loved her enough to nominate her for A Quiet Place and The Girl on the Train (and give her the win for the former), they have a history of throwing Amazon productions individual nods in wide open fields (Anthony Hopkins for King Lear, John Krasinski for Jack Ryan) and they love their period pieces. Likewise SAG have had a history of deviating from the Globes on the limited side recently (nominating I May Destroy You and Hamilton but ignoring Small Axe and The Comey Rule, going for Smart over Chastain, nominating Emily Watson but snubbing the Unbelievable leads) and you could argue that Blunt was too late for the Globes or that she would have gotten in had the HFPA not felt like they had to owe their perennial favourites Chastain and Roberts for the big years they’ve had this year. Alas I just can’t justify myself predicting her after the Globes snubbed her. I really hope the committee comes through here.
8. Claire Danes – Has made it in at both the Globes and Critics Choice and Fleishman feels like an ascendant contender. I do think the show still suffers from the same visibility issues as outlined in my limited/movie actor post but in a field this wide open, who knows?
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9. Julia Roberts – Made it in at both the Critics Choice and Globes sp I guess she does warrant a mention but this feels like another case of someone who is the choice of the pundits and critics but the industry looks another way. If she does make it in it’d probably suggest she wasn’t really that far off in the end at the Emmys.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
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