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SAG 2023 Television Predictions

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  • kat_ebbs
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    #1205219353

    9. Julia Roberts – Made it in at both the Critics Choice and Globes sp I guess she does warrant a mention but this feels like another case of someone who is the choice of the pundits and critics but the industry looks another way. If she does make it in it’d probably suggest she wasn’t really that far off in the end at the Emmys.

    Does anyone know if SAG ever nominated something from Starz?


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205219373

    There is one show I wanted to float as a remote possibility here and that’s 1883, last year’s Yellowstone prequel which was a Dec-Jan show which wasn’t eligible last round, will be on the right viewers minds because of 1923 being out, and had really good hold all year (in other words, it might benefit from the sort of field Yellowstone was able to break in to last year).


    Manav
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    #1205219468

    It’s happened three times in 162 categories – never in limited (male or female),

    Angels In America (2003)
    Male Actor: Justin Kirk, Jeffrey Wright and Al Pacino
    Female Actor: Meryl Streep,  Emma Thompson,  Mary Louis Parker

    Temple Grandin (2010)
    Female Actor: Claire Danes, Julia Ormond, Catherine O’Hara

    Big Little Lies (2017)
    Female Actor: Nicole Kidman,  Reese Witherspoon and Laura Dern


    Victor
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    #1205219477

    Angels In America (2003)
    Male Actor: Justin Kirk, Jeffrey Wright and Al Pacino
    Female Actor: Meryl Streep, Emma Thompson, Mary Louis Parker

    Big Little Lies (2017)
    Female Actor: Nicole Kidman, Reese Witherspoon and Laura Dern

    Also Claire Danes, Catherine O’Hara and Julia Ormond for Temple Grandin in 2010.

    FYC:
    The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
    The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
    Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!


    Manav
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    #1205219494

    Also Claire Danes, Catherine O’Hara and Julia Ormond for Temple Grandin in 2010.

    Definitely.  My bad. Added it quite late. It’s there nonetheless now. 🙂

    Still weird to me how Emmy winner David Straitharn missed a SAG nom.


    wolfali
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    #1205219508

    Also Claire Danes, Catherine O’Hara and Julia Ormond for Temple Grandin in 2010.

    Lorraine Bracco, Edie Falco and Nancy Marchand for The Sopranos in 1999 too.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205219519

    Y’all are right and I shouldn’t use wikipedia as a source as 2am

    In any case

    3 times still doesn’t happen often and Abbott didn’t even win the series Emmy.

    And rarely in comedy.

     


    Victor
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    #1205219550

    We should point out that the last two comedy ensemble winners did have 4 nominated members, 2 male, 2 female. Abbott doesn’t have a real contender on the male side after TJW, so they can always default to the 3 ladies, it wouldn’t shock me.

    FYC:
    The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
    The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
    Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205219569

    We should point out that the last two comedy ensemble winners did have 4 nominated members, 2 male, 2 females. Abbott doesn’t have a real contender on the male side after TJW, so they can always default to the 3 ladies, it wouldn’t shock me.

    Yeah, you’re right In general, going all-in on a few contenders is a trend, so it wouldn’t shock me either. I’m just not quite convinced Abbott is Ted, or at least not yet.


    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1205219603

    I think The Bear/Allen White is like The Flight Attendant/Cuoco

    SAG will probably drop Maisel just like they did with This is Us…


    Couverture
    Joined:
    Jun 16th, 2019
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    #1205219748

    Yeah, you’re right In general, going all-in on a few contenders is a trend, so it wouldn’t shock me either. I’m just not quite convinced Abbott is Ted, or at least not yet.

    I share your hesitation. Triple noms in a category or 4 individual noms are not supposed to be easy. That’s usually reserved for stuff like The Crown, Ted Lasso, Schitt’s Creek, Big Little Lies etc. You know, shows strong enough to win 3/4 major acting awards in a single night. It was the same in the tape system era with Temple Grandin, Angels in America, Everybody loves Raymond etc. Brunson is the second strongest acting contender from Abbott for comparison and she lost the Emmy, was snubbed at the Gothams for her supporting co-star and isn’t even the decisive frontrunner at the Globes. She’s obviously in but individual support for Abbott’s contenders doesn’t run as deep as you’d usually see otherwise.

    Succession would stand out as an exception but there’s two things to consider here:
    1) I don’t think Culkin would have happened in a normal year where the competition wasn’t so dire.
    2) Even if it didn’t win big, it still eventually ended up getting a record 14 acting noms.

    Female Actor in a Comedy is without a doubt the most competitive of the year otoh, perhaps even more competitive it has been in years. Another thing to consider is that in recent years, broadcast shows (This is Us, black-ish, The Good Place) have tended to struggle or not maximize at the guild. Abbott is obviously stronger but SAG going all in on one show with so much competition that doesn’t even exactly fit their type is riskier than what the odds might make you believe.

    Minor thing but whether it be the unexpected muted buzz or the underperformance on critics lists, in terms of momentum, I don’t think Abbott is in the same place as it was in the spring or even during the Emmys. I guess this SAG dilemma would be the equivalent of arguing whether it was strong enough to get a directing nom or winning series without support from the directors or editors.

    Predicting it to do great but maybe not on the level where it maxes out and breaks long established trends is where I’m at. Feels reasonable and in line with how it has performed so far.

    A Negroni. Sbagliato. With Prosecco in it.

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