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Super Early 2022 Predictions: Emmy Drama Categories (Part 3)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204384491

    Someone correct me if you find any mistake.

    Foundation (Apple, September) and The Sandman (Netflix, wrapped) have had far, far too long, expensive (studio space when it’s at a premium) production schedules (best part of a year) mid-pandemic to not be campaigned and have some of the longest expressed plans of any shows around (5-8 seasons).

    I completely understand the reluctance around people predicting them but I think they are being underestimated as streamer priorities because they’ve both had exceptionally strong NDA’s and Fort Knox security efforts on filming.

    Re: The Old Man, and someone please correct me if there’s been an update, but Amy Brenneman (in the cast) stated earlier this year they’d “get back to it” due to Jeff Bridges cancer treatment. The last pic I saw of Bridges he seemed in good spirits but he’d lost all his hair etc, weight which outside of the concerns re shooting similar to Odenkirk is surely a continuity issue.

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    Victor
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    #1204384884

    Huns imma need Evil to sweep after “C is for Cop”, this episode was the most intriguing episode ever made and I’m not gonna let it go by without nothing.

    THE WRITING!

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    annieholl
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    #1204385184

    Netflix – Ozark > Stranger Things (what else do they even have ready?)

    Wheels are coming off Netflix’s strategy. Increasingly they have fewer and fewer shows with the goods to make it to the Emmys because they keep canceling things to keep the churn going. They’ll get beat down by HBO Max. Soon Ozark, The Crown, Dead to Me will be over & all they’ll have will be Stranger Things and The Umbrella Academy. Unless they want to keep hoping shows like Emily in Paris pop up randomly they need to get their act together.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204385239

    Wheels are coming off Netflix’s strategy. Increasingly they have fewer and fewer shows with the goods to make it to the Emmys because they keep canceling things to keep the churn going.

    Apparently their churn/cancel rate is statistically normal, though.

    They’ve had very strong correlation on big hits vs awards players in the drama space but that’s probably not a sustainable scenario. The lack of (English language) ongoing drama contenders they have in even early production to post (at least publicly) is very low (maybe 6?), though I can understand the commercial advantage of focusing a lot of energy to their international markets where they have a lot of advantage over other streamers.

    Even if you discount the TV side of it, it doesn’t make sense that a streamer trying to be a significant awards player on the film side don’t focus in on their TV mainstays. Kirby’s Oscar nomination almost certainly has some synergy with her being a The Crown alum viewers will have been motivated to watch.

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    wolfali
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    #1204385890

    I have never seen a single episode of the show but with how much The Boys broke through this year, is it possible that it ends up being a top tier contender next time round? Its third season after all looks set to air closer towards voting than the previous two did and I can only imagine its breakthrough this year will only help in continuing to build industry visibility and momentum.

    I already have Starr getting nominated because actor looks to be the most wide open category at the moment (not necessarily less competitive but aside from Bateman, Brown, Cox and Strong there seems to be a vacuum) but could we see people like Moriarty or actors branch favourite Esposito (who might have neither The Mandalorian nor Better Call Saul ready on time) slip in as well?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204385900

    I sure hope so because the show is great. Airing against Stranger Things and HoTD could hurt it though.

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    Victor
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    #1204385906

    I have never seen a single episode of the show

    Go watch it ASAP, you’re missing out.

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    kaziz
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    #1204386059

    I have never seen a single episode of the show but with how much The Boys broke through this year, is it possible that it ends up being a top tier contender next time round? Its third season after all looks set to air closer towards voting than the previous two did and I can only imagine its breakthrough this year will only help in continuing to build industry visibility and momentum.

    I already have Starr getting nominated because actor looks to be the most wide open category at the moment (not necessarily less competitive but aside from Bateman, Brown, Cox and Strong there seems to be a vacuum) but could we see people like Moriarty or actors branch favourite Esposito (who might have neither The Mandalorian nor Better Call Saul ready on time) slip in as well?

    The Boys is really good! You should watch it! Antony Starr & Karl Urban are really good. Moriarty has too much of a straight man role to get in for Lead imo, but maybe that changes in the new season.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    Victor
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    #1204386068

    If Giancarlo Esposito gets in for The Boys (assuming his role doesn’t get any bigger), I’ll just have to name check him for every show possible from that point on.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204386437

    I sure hope so because the show is great. Airing against Stranger Things and HoTD could hurt it though.

    Yeah, I think it probably needs solid timing. I also think it might need to be careful around Marvel, however, I think it getting in over FAWS (the more “straight’ superhero option in its category) is positive.

    I have a tendency to think their might be some snobbiness around the actors in the drama category. Agree with Victor re someone like Esposito showing up and then getting nom’d over core cast.

    I’ve said it before, but I think if it could maneovour in to comedy, whatever that means these days, it might be slightly stronger on that front.

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    Reis
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    #1204386454

    Is <i>House of the Dragon</i> even going to make eligibility? I may be wrong but I thought they paused production and will resume next month.

    I think there is no reason to not be finished in this Emmy season. They already had almost 5 months of filming. A regular season of Game of Thrones had the same time to be filmed, with a april release. Even delaying and with a slow work (covid), they still have four/five months to film and release in april/may.

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    Victor
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    #1204386470

    I think it is
    The Gilded Age will probably be their early year release and HotD will be their winter release, probably paired with a miniseries.

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    wolfali
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    #1204386872

    Darling I just saw this week’s episode of The Good Fight and I’m going to need them all to happen at the main ceremony next year:

    A writing nomination for the Kings and a directing nomination for Carrie Preston too please!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204387063

    I may be wrong but I thought they paused production and will resume next month.

    If my calculations are correct their window of “make Emmys” or “don’t make Emmys but also don’t coincide with LoTR” on a ten week release puts them at needing to debut between April (if we concede they’ll have to go the hanging episodes rule) and mid June (or they risk running their season finale in to LoTR).

    They probably aren’t a threat hugely above the line given HBO’s internal contenders for actors, but they’re the major entrant for them BTL so Emmys would still be advantageous.

    To some extent HBO have shot themselves in the foot with performing so well with the last season of GoT especially given how it was received, so a failure to perform is potentially a bigger PR problem for that show than most.

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    Victor
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    #1204387194

    I have no idea how House of the Dragon will perform.

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