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Super Early 2022 Predictions: Emmy Drama Categories (Part 3)

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    Snow
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    #1204463651

    If The White Lotus does go drama (as Casey Bloys suggested it might) how well do you guys think it can do?

    I think the supporting players would be easier to get nominations than if they were in limited. Depending on how many got in, Coolidge could gain traction for a win if voters don’t mind to go back to Garner again. But lead? Not so sure. Although theoretically Bartlett could probably be carried to the finish line to get a nom. But I don’t see Connie Britton getting nominated if she goes lead.

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    wolfali
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    #1204463707

    I haven’t seen TWL yet, but is Molly Shannon competitive in guest?

    Yes! She has a fully fledged guest arc with lots of memorable scenes and the role is neither thankless nor is it a glorified cameo.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204463953

    If The White Lotus does go drama (as Casey Bloys suggested it might) how well do you guys think it can do?

    I think Coolidge has the best chance if she goes supporting. Snook’s the only returning contender that’s back before Christmas if I’m not mistaken which gives her a chance to maybe sneak in to Winter (SAG might be hard, but CCA seems reasonable) and stake a claim.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204464044

    Nominees returning without presuming category placement changes.

    Lead Actor (8)

    Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

    Brian Cox, Succession

    Jason Bateman, Ozark

    Jeremy Strong, Succession

    Michael C Hall, Dexter

    Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us

    Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

    Steve Carell, The Morning Show

     

    Lead Actress (6)

    Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show

    Jodie Comer, Killing Eve

    Laura Linney, Ozark

    Mandy Moore, This Is Us

    Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

    Zendaya, Euphoria

     

    Supporting Actor (9)

    Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

    Chris Sullivan, This Is Us

    David Harbour, Stranger Things

    Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul

    Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul

    Kieran Culkin, Succession

    Mark Duplass, The Morning Show

    Matthew McFadyen, Succession

    Nicholas Braun, Succession

     

    Supporting Actress (5)

    Chrissy Metz, This Is Us

    Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve

    Julia Garner, Ozark

    Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things

    Sarah Snook, Succession

     

    Am I missing anyone?

     

     

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    gabspss
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    #1204464202

    You forgot these:

    Mariska Hargitay (Law and Order: SVU)
    Chandra Wilson (Grey’s Anatomy)

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    methaddiction
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    #1204464216

    You forgot these: Mariska Hargitay (Law and Order: SVU) Chandra Wilson (Grey’s Anatomy)

    They haven’t been nominated in over 10 years?

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    gabspss
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    #1204464238

    They haven’t been nominated in over 10 years?

    Neither has Michael C. Hall. They still fit the list.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    wolfali
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    #1204464353

    Neither has Michael C. Hall. They still fit the list.

    Michael C. Hall’s show hasn’t been on since 2013 and his last nomination was in 2012 so…

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204464509

    hahaha

    OK so the rule is “has been nominated in one of their last five eligible seasons and thus has some chance of coming back” hereby named the William H Macy/Shameless rule. Hall qualifies for that, Mariska and Chandra don’t

    Do you think Crudup is still the frontrunner for Supporting Actor?

     

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204464532

    Do you think Crudup is still the frontrunner for Supporting Actor?

    Yes. I only see that changing if Murray Bartlett goes supporting (an TWL goes drama) or Morgan Spector has a big role on <i>The Gilded Age</i>.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204464550

    I wonder if Crudup might move to Lead…

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204464560

    Yes. I only see that changing if Murray Bartlett goes supporting (an TWL goes drama) or Morgan Spector has a big role on <i>The Gilded Age</i>.

    Same. My guess from their promos is Duplass is a lot less prominent and that will only aid Crudup.

    I kind of struggle to see Carell as lead given promos too but given supporting actor is worse unless he qualifies as guest my guess is they’ll keep him there.

    That supporting actress category has a lot of wiggle room given Metz just makes that 5 year rule. Definitely where campaigning should be directed.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204464565

    But I don’t see Connie Britton getting nominated if she goes lead.

    I can see Britton getting nominated no matter where she’s submitted. This is arguably her first role of substance that the Academy will have seen since Murder House.

    Sure she hasn’t been nominated in nearly a decade and those misses are easily explainable; her O.J. role was kinda nothing (and her NOT being nominated is prove they actually watched it instead of just blinding checking off her, Guy Pearce in Mare teas) while SMILF & Dirty John just clearly weren’t on the Academy radar.

    Oscars FYC:

    "CODA" – in all categories

    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Sup. Actor (Richard E. Grant), Sup. Actress (Sarah Lancashire) and Original Song (“This Was Me”)

    "King Richard" – Original Song (“Be Alive”)

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    Tyler
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    Jan 9th, 2018
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    #1204464568

    I haven’t seen TWL yet, but is Molly Shannon competitive in guest?

    if it goes drama, she would probably be one of the best guest winner we’ve seen in years.

    i hope it goes limited though, i loved these characters but i don’t need to see them again.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204464575

    I wonder if Crudup might move to Lead…

    I suspect there will be some category switching for The Morning Show men.

    Netflix could probably legitimately swap Brown and Ryder as I think we’ve discussed here but I don’t think much else will move.

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