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Super Early 2022 Predictions: Emmy Drama Categories

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    Victor
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    #1204314787

    Josh O’Connor

    How sweet of you to dream

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204314843

    Ozark was nominated in 2018 for 5 Emmy’s, including actor and directing (twice). That was its break through. Killing Eve was nominated for writing and actress in 2018 too. That was also its break through. Both shows increased their total number of nominations in 2019 AND picked up some wins. That’s completely different than what I’m talking about with shows this year. I’m saying that if a show gets a couple of nominations this year and doesn’t win anything big like writing or acting or directing, then I’m not expecting to see it next year. And if we do see it next year, I’m expecting a decrease in the number of nominations. 2019 wasn’t a strong year but this year is *a lot* weaker. And that’s just not up for debate.

    I think this year is stronger than 2019 in drama. I’m confident that The Crown is stronger than Season 8 of Game of Thrones (at least when it comes to wins), The Mandalorian, Bridgerton, and The Handmaid’s Tale feel stronger to me right now than Killing Eve, Ozark, and Succession did that year, and there are more contenders that feel like they have above the line Emmy buzz this year than there were in 2019.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204314884

    I really want to know why Netflix is already doing Behind the Scenes vids for The Sandman when it isn’t wrapped til the end of the month. Are they super confident? I can’t work out if they think it’s going to be a popcorn hit or an awards contender. That show has months of VFX to go and so much stuff is getting really late promo these days.

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    Jays
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    #1204314898

    I think this year is stronger than 2019 in drama. I’m confident that The Crown is stronger than Season 8 of Game of Thrones (at least when it comes to wins), The Mandalorian, Bridgerton, and The Handmaid’s Tale feel stronger to me right now than Killing Eve, Ozark, and Succession did that year, and there are more contenders that feel like they have above the line Emmy buzz this year than there were in 2019.

    I completely disagree, except for the fact that The Crown is super strong. I don’t think the trio of The Mandalorian, Bridgerton and THT is stronger than KE, Ozark and Succession at all. And I think the reason why there are more contenders this year that have above the line Emmy “buzz” is because this year is so weak, lol. Look at supporting actor – people are throwing around a bunch of different names because it’s hard to pinpoint a lineup that actually makes sense because a lot of the contenders don’t have true buzz.

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204314978

    I completely disagree, except for the fact that The Crown is super strong. I don’t think the trio of The Mandalorian, Bridgerton and THT is stronger than KE, Ozark and Succession at all.

    Succession was really weak in 2019. It got 0 acting nominations and just 2 creative arts nominations. Ozark and Killing Eve definitely were stronger, but I think the massive ratings success of THT and Bridgerton probably would beat them. After all, THT’s hanging episodes arguably performed about as well as Ozark and Killing Eve did, and I think THT Season 4 will be stronger than those hanging episodes were.

    And I think the reason why there are more contenders this year that have above the line Emmy “buzz” is because this year is so weak, lol. Look at supporting actor – people are throwing around a bunch of different names because it’s hard to pinpoint a lineup that actually makes sense because a lot of the contenders don’t have true buzz.

    That may be true to an extent, but I think that overlooks just how weak 2019 was. Literally every series contender that year got nominated for series (except Homecoming, which got a single cinematography nomination and nothing else). What was even 9th that year, a widely hated season of House of Cards? How to Get Away with Murder? American Horror Story? There really wasn’t anything beyond the 8 that made it. At least this year, there will probably be at least a couple side contenders that make sense. And even in the main 8, some of the nominees were incredibly weak. Bodyguard managed to make the series lineup with nothing but a lone writing nomination (missing even Drama Actor, which it should have been locked for). There were only 7 shows that year that had anything resembling a significant amount of support, and I think we’ll do better than that this year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204315150

    It is really dellusional to think that DGA, SAG Ensemble, PGA and AFI nominated Bridgerton won’t be returning.

    Is it making eligibility though?

    Also, Killing Eve is falling when it comes to awards

    Looks like the bias has jumped out. What evidence is there that Killing Eve is “falling” so much when it comes to awards when it missed all but two of its 2019 nominations last year lol?

    am sure Cooke said Slow Horses is limited in an interview for The Sound of Metal.

    It’s a limited series that is split into two halves. It’s unclear how this will be classified awards wise.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Thiago
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    #1204315285

    Looks like the bias has jumped out. What evidence is there that Killing Eve is “falling” so much when it comes to awards when it missed all but two of its 2019 nominations last year lol?

    Emmys: missed writing after gettin in for seasons 1 and 2 and directing after gettin nominated for season 2.

    Bafta: only retained Comer for seasons 2 and 3 after getting seven nominations and three wins for season 1.

    GG: missed series after getting nominations for seasons 1 and 2.

    CC: zero nominations for season 3, after getting five for season 1 and two for season 2.

    SAG: zero nominations for season 3, after getting one for seasons 1 and 2.

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    Jays
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    #1204315298

    Succession was really weak in 2019. It got 0 acting nominations and just 2 creative arts nominations. Ozark and Killing Eve definitely were stronger, but I think the massive ratings success of THT and Bridgerton probably would beat them. After all, THT’s hanging episodes arguably performed about as well as Ozark and Killing Eve did, and I think THT Season 4 will be stronger than those hanging episodes were.

    Succession won writing lol. A show that wins an above the line Emmy isn’t weak. It was also a series and directing nominee too, and this was all before buzz for its second season really took off. THT’s missed out on a lead acting nomination last year as well as writing and directing nominations. It’ll probably rebound this year with nominations, but that’s most likely due to how weak the competition is. I don’t see how THT could be stronger than 2019 Ozark and Killing Eve when Killing Eve also won an above the line Emmy in Comer and Ozark won two Emmy’s for Garner and directing. Are you expecting THT’s to win above the line Emmy’s this year? If season 4 of THT was competing in 2019, I’m very confident that it wouldn’t win writing over Succession, actress over Comer, supporting actress over Garner and directing over Bateman. As for Bridgerton, I don’t see that winning any above the line Emmy’s this year so I’m not sure how strong it’ll be. Similarly to THT, I don’t think it would have prevailed over those winners from 2019 either. Strength lies in wins. Nominations are easier to come by, especially in a year like this when drama is so empty.

    That may be true to an extent, but I think that overlooks just how weak 2019 was. Literally every series contender that year got nominated for series (except Homecoming, which got a single cinematography nomination and nothing else). What was even 9th that year, a widely hated season of House of Cards? How to Get Away with Murder? American Horror Story? There really wasn’t anything beyond the 8 that made it. At least this year, there will probably be at least a couple side contenders that make sense. And even in the main 8, some of the nominees were incredibly weak. Bodyguard managed to make the series lineup with nothing but a lone writing nomination (missing even Drama Actor, which it should have been locked for). There were only 7 shows that year that had anything resembling a significant amount of support, and I think we’ll do better than that this year.

    That’s literally the same for this year, lol. What are the shows fighting for the 7th and 8th spot? In Treatment, which is airing now and basically has zero buzz? Perry Mason, which is a show that’s already been forgotten and flopped at the winter awards? Pose, which has been on an Emmy decline since Porter’s win? The Boys, which has one below the line Emmy nomination and who’s biggest sign of strength is a sole WGA nomination? That’s slim pickings!

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    wolfali
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    #1204315352

    SAG: zero nominations for season 3,

    In a competitive field where two Netflix shows that SAG loves more than the Emmys took all the slots lmao. Aside from maybe The Morning Show, none of these returning shows this year would have been able to spoil that lineup. The Emmy field isn’t going to be as competitive as that SAG actress field.

    Emmys: missed writing after gettin in for seasons 1 and 2 and directing after gettin nominated for season 2.

    The show submitted multiple writing and directing episodes and could partly have gotten snubbed as a result of that. The fact that it made a key category lile casting not only says that it was top 5 and easily ahead of Better Call Saul and Stranger Things but also that it probably wasn’t far off from getting into directing.

    GG: missed series after getting nominations for seasons 1 and 2. CC: zero nominations for season 3, after getting five for season 1 and two for season 2.

    These are useless stats and useless organisations. Relying on the same group that snubbed The Morning Show in multiple categories last year and ignored Ozark for years whilst nominating underappreciated shows like The Plot Against America and Years and Years for a 100% guarantee on Emmy predictions is a fools errand.

    Bafta: only retained Comer for seasons 2 and 3 after

    This is actually why the show is actually quite strong awards wise. BAFTA juries almost never revisits a show after it has swept (apart from Happy Valley) so the fact that Comer is one of the only actresses in BAFTA history to get nominated multiple times for the same role speaks to the amount of support her and the show (which still received four other nominations for season 2) have not only in the membership stages of BAFTA voting but also in the jury stages.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Victor
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    #1204315362

    What is the point of this conversation anyway? It’s not like years will magically collide and completers will face each other.

    It’s dragging right now.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204315365

    It’s a limited series that is split into two halves. It’s unclear how this will be classified awards wise.

    The Selena series Netflix did this year in two halves is on it’s FYC as drama.

    Re: Ozark, wasn’t it stipulated that their final season is two x 7 episode halves? It seems all but confirmed the first half is due in early 2022 but not as clear on the second half as it’s filming til September? How does that work? Do they become eligible for both 2022 and 2023 or only one?

    Also, Robin Wright is directing Ozark this year?

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    wolfali
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    #1204315373

    The Selena series Netflix did this year in two halves is on it’s FYC as drama.

    Yeah that’s why I think it will go drama.

    : Ozark, wasn’t it stipulated that their final season is two x 7 episode halves? It seems all but confirmed the first half is due in early 2022 but not as clear on the second half as it’s filming til September? How does that work? Do they become eligible for both 2022 and 2023 or only one?

    Assuming the first half premieres in February as it’s rumoured to then the second can premiere from any time from June onwards and be eligible for the next awards cycle (2022-23).

    Will Netflix want all of Ozark’s final season to compete at the 2023 winter awards though? I assume the second half will premiere in 2023 (although that would mean both its final season and The Crown’s will be competing against each other at the same winter awards cycle and I’m unsure whether Netflix will want to take that risk).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Jays
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    #1204315410

    I thought Slow Horses was a drama series? It’s been labeled as such in all of the articles that have been written about it, and it’s based on a series of books – the first book being what they adapted for the first season.

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    Tyler
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    #1204315417

    Ozark was nominated in 2018 for 5 Emmy’s, including actor and directing (twice). That was its break through. Killing Eve was nominated for writing and actress in 2018 too. That was also its break through. Both shows increased their total number of nominations in 2019 AND picked up some wins. That’s completely different than what I’m talking about with shows this year. I’m saying that if a show gets a couple of nominations this year and doesn’t win anything big like writing or acting or directing, then I’m not expecting to see it next year. And if we do see it next year, I’m expecting a decrease in the number of nominations. 2019 wasn’t a strong year but this year is *a lot* weaker. And that’s just not up for debate.

    Thank you.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204315427

    I thought Slow Horses was a drama series? It’s been labeled as such in all of the articles that have been written about it, and it’s based on a series of books – the first book being what they adapted for the first season.

    Yeah Wolfali seems to think so. I think it depends on the service? Most of the Apple shows seem to be continuing,  HBO they USUALLY explicitly state it, Disney are almost always vague because of all the MCU/Star Wars mystery stuff. Netflix though has a hugely high proportion of limited to drama that initially seems pretty vague. Network I would rarely presume is limited.

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