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Super Early 2023 Emmy Predictions (Part 1)

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    probablyROB
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    #1205003919

    The Bear is definitely a drama but I am almost certain it will be submitted as a comedy. The ending could work as a limited series finale too. But I doubt they will go that route as there’s plenty left open-ended for multiple seasons.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205003926

    The Bear is definitely a drama but I am almost certain it will be submitted as a comedy.

    Why do you say that?

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    KillerBass
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    #1205003983

    Need a Jayne Houdyshell nom to happen after today’s new episode of Only Murders in the Building.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205004042

    Why do you say that?

    Just a feeling. It’s actually not that dissimilar tonally to Shameless and while I stopped watching that show it was also a drama that submitted in comedy from what I did see. Plus, the fact it’s shorter episodes and there are some attempts at humor. I would prefer for it to submit in drama but the feeling I get is they think it is a comedy whether it’s FX or the showrunners themselves. It’s not devoid of humor either but it’s not even as light as say Rescue Me was at times.

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    alittle03
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    #1205004084

    I would also say The Bear is definitely a drama, but it has its comedic moments here and there. If it touched the Emmys, though, it’d probably be submitted under Comedy and I think it’s because of the episode lengths rather than the genre? I’m not entirely sure how it works, so I’d love some correction here if I’m wrong. But yeah, every episode except the finale is around 25-ish minutes, so I’m not sure how it’d work when it’s time to campaign.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    antony
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    #1205004129

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    probablyROB
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    #1205004250

    I would also say The Bear is definitely a drama, but it has its comedic moments here and there. If it touched the Emmys, though, it’d probably be submitted under Comedy and I think it’s because of the episode lengths rather than the genre? I’m not entirely sure how it works, so I’d love some correction here if I’m wrong. But yeah, every episode except the finale is around 25-ish minutes, so I’m not sure how it’d work when it’s time to campaign.

    The only other show I can recall that was similar episode length and gained any traction as a drama at the Emmys was In Treatment. But they aired like 4-5 episodes a week. And that show was definitely a drama.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205004326

    I would also say The Bear is definitely a drama, but it has its comedic moments here and there. If it touched the Emmys, though, it’d probably be submitted under Comedy and I think it’s because of the episode lengths rather than the genre? I’m not entirely sure how it works, so I’d love some correction here if I’m wrong. But yeah, every episode except the finale is around 25-ish minutes, so I’m not sure how it’d work when it’s time to campaign.

    I take everyone’s point about the tone!

    From the recent rule change:

    Comedy/drama series minimum: 20 minutes minimum 6 episodes. Once established: 3 (i.e Stranger Things is not eligible in drama)

    Everything else  less is Short Form

    Limited series: minimum 150 minutes/2 episodes

    For below the line:

    Half hour 20-40

    Hour 40-75 (I don’t know what the deal is with this crazy length eps)

    Also – and maybe I missed this before –  “period” for crafts is considered 25 years prior to the current Emmy Year on Jan 1

    (so pre 1997)

    (I feel old now)

    So my understanding is you can be a comedy and compete in hour long BTL going forward or vice versa (the most obvious candidate for this is Netflix’s Wednesday, which is very crafts heavy and I think will probably compete in comedy but hour long BTL).

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    Benjamonster86
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    #1205004334

    I think it will probably go comedy too but that seems very much like a mistake. I did see that As We See It is submitting as drama this year (though unlikely to get anything) and that certainly has more comedy than The Bear and similar episode lengths. But different platform so may not make sense as a comparison.

    My blog: http://benjamonsterstv.blogspot.com/

    My site: https://peaktvdatabase.weebly.com/

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    Reis
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    #1205004338

    Maybe they will save the show for the next season.

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    alittle03
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    #1205004341

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Maybe they will save the show for the next season.

    Sarah Snook 2024 win incoming.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205004343

    I think it will probably go comedy too but that seems very much like a mistake. I did see that As We See It is submitting as drama this year (though unlikely to get anything) and that certainly has more comedy than The Bear and similar episode lengths. But different platform so may not make sense as a comparison.

    I think given that’s running in 2022 it would have had to have gotten approval, I think as of 2023 they’re allowed to make their own decisions?

    I would note that SAG rules allow a longer comedy to run but not a 30 minute drama, so a short drama would like be disincentivized by that.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205004345

    Sarah Snook 2024 win incoming.

    How long were they in post last time? That’s cutting it very fine, especially given we’re still in a pandemic (even eight episodes would require them to debut by April 8).

    Perhaps HBO will do Westworld/House of The Dragon/(guessing) Perry Mason/The Last of Us?

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    wolfali
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    #1205004361

    Maybe they will save the show for the next season.

    I think they’ll probably go to the 2024 Emmy eligibility cycle if this is the case. They finished on both season 2 and 3 a month before they premiered and with this being a 10 episode season they’re simply not going to have all their episodes eligible if they premiere at the end of March during this cycle with the abolition of the hanging episodes rule.

    Awards aren’t everything of course but I think it also makes sense in terms of marketing strategy it makes sense for it to skip this cycle. Streaming services and cable networks at this point are more concerned about longevity and generating enough hype to retain and increase the amount of subscribers and viewers they have tuning into their content and that’s something that is achievable in this cycle for HBO without Succession considering they have a prequel to Game of Thrones, an adaptation of one of the most popular video games on the planet and new seasons of shows that generate big commercial revenues for them even if they aren’t big awards players (Westworld, The Gilded Age, Perry Mason etc). The future is too uncertain to gamble by rushing Succession‘s production and also throwing it into the mix this year and I think in the long run it would probably pay off for them (both commercially and in terms of awards potential) to have the fourth and (potentially final) fifth seasons of the show having only one year of a gap between each other considering they’ll be skipping an awards cycle regardless because of how much a gap there is (pandemic or not) in the production of both seasons of the show.

    Them having a Summer 2023 (2024 Emmy) release for season 4 and then a Summer 2024 (2025 Emmy) release for season 5 (like with seasons 1 and 2) makes more sense imo than them having a Spring 2023 (2023 Emmy) release and then a Summer 2024 (2025 Emmy) one.

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    wolfali
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    #1205004365

    I think given that’s running in 2022 it would have had to have gotten approval, I think as of 2023 they’re allowed to make their own decisions?

    Any show can submit anywhere. Before this year you had to petition to submit in comedy if you were a 45 minute/hour long series and if you wanted to submit in drama and were a half hour (some successful like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and The Flight Attendant, some unsuccessful like Orange is the New Black and On Becoming a God in Central Florida).

    Now however the academy has a panel that can review any submission that has a borderline genre placement and decide whether to let it proceed with its distributor’s intended placement or to move it to another one. If I’m not mistaken this already happened with As We See It this year. Whether it happens with The Bear or not depends on how the panel views it.

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