Gold Derby graphs explanation

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  • Lights Camera What's The Action?
    Joined:
    Oct 5th, 2021
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    Hi GDers,

    I’ve posted this problem on the General Discussion forum, with no response, so I figured I’d try my luck here.
    Here’s a problem with GD – how do the graphs work?
    I’ll use Oscars 2022 – Best Director as an example.

    Going to the Oscars Predictions – Combined page (https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2022-predictions/), there’s a total of 3145 votes available in the Best Director – Predicted Winner column. (I counted.)
    Campion has 1513 of those 3145 votes (as of Oct 5).
    That’s 48.11% of the vote.

    But going to the Oscars Predicted Winners – Combined line graph page (https://www.goldderby.com/charts/combined-graphs/oscars-nominations-2022-predictions/), Campion is at 20.13% (as of Oct 5).

    What’s the reason for the discrepancy? I can’t figure it out!
    Any ideas?
    Many thanks. Stay safe!

    LIGHTS CAMERA WHAT'S THE ACTION?
    The podcast about betting on film/TV awards

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    Chris Beachum
    Joined:
    May 22nd, 2011
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    Experts combined predictions have much more weight than Users predictions. And to a lesser extent, Editors votes have a little more weight than Users.

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    Lights Camera What's The Action?
    Joined:
    Oct 5th, 2021
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    Thanks for that explanation Chris. Much appreciated.

    But both graphs are listed as “Combined”, so shouldn’t they be the same number?

    Or does one graph have weighting, and the other doesn’t?

    Also, are you able to reveal what the weighting system is?

    Thanks very much.

    LIGHTS CAMERA WHAT'S THE ACTION?
    The podcast about betting on film/TV awards

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