The next Grammys are scheduled for January 31, 2022. These kudos are handed out by the Recording Academy, an organization made up of music insiders from across the industry. The nominees for Album of the Year — along with Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and several genre awards — were previously decided by secretive nomination review committees, but the academy eliminated those for this awards season. Scroll down for our latest racetrack odds, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Those odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list throughout the season.
Predictably, the nominations under the committee system were often controversial. At the 2021 awards, for instance, The Weeknd didn’t get a single nomination despite a critically acclaimed, chart-topping album (“After Hours”) and a song (“Blinding Lights”) so wildly popular that Billboard ranked it as their number-one single of the year. The Weeknd accused the academy of corruption, echoing the frustrations of other artists like Halsey and Drake, and he ultimately announced that he would boycott the awards altogether.
The academy has additionally faced blowback for biases against women and Black artists, though the Grammys have made efforts to expand their membership in addition to dropping the committees. They also expanded their top four general field categories from five nominations to eight starting with the awards held in 2019 (and expanded again to 10 nominations this year), and we’ve had three acclaimed female winners in a row (Kacey Musgraves‘s “Golden Hour,” Billie Eilish‘s “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” and Taylor Swift‘s “Folklore”), as well as the first-ever rap song to win Record and Song of the Year (Childish Gambino‘s “This is America“). Nevertheless, allegations of questionable voting practices persisted.
All that could influence who wins and how those winners are perceived by the industry at large. Who do you think voters will gravitate to in this year’s contest now that the nominations have been announced?
UPDATED: April 3, 2022
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1. ‘Happier Than Ever’ by Billie Eilish
Image Credit: John Salangsang for Variety Current Odds: 13/2
Label: Darkroom/Interscope
Released: July 30, 2021
Grammy History: She has won seven Grammys, including Album of the Year for “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?,” which made her the youngest artist ever to win that award at age 18. She also won Record of the Year twice in a row for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.”
Current Grammy Nominations: She earned seven bids this year, also including Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album.
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2. ‘Love for Sale’ by Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
Image Credit: Evan Falk/WWD Current Odds: 7/1
Label: Streamline/Columbia/Interscope
Released: September 30, 2021
Grammy History: Lady Gaga has won 12 Grammys and Bennett has won 18. Bennett previously won Album of the Year for “MTV Unplugged,” while Gaga has been nominated for “The Fame,” “The Fame Monster,” and “Born This Way.”
Current Grammy Nominations: They’re up for five awards, also including Record of the Year, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, and Best Traditional Pop Album.
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3. ‘Sour’ by Olivia Rodrigo
Image Credit: Michael Buckner/Variety Current Odds: 15/2
Label: Geffen/Interscope
Released: May 21, 2021
Grammy History: The teenage singer, songwriter, and actress has yet to win a Grammy.
Current Grammy Nominations: She’s up for seven awards, also including Record of the Year, Song of the Best, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album.
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4. ‘Back of My Mind’ by H.E.R.
Image Credit: Francis Specker/CBS Current Odds: 9/1
Label: RCA
Released: June 18, 2021
Grammy History: She has won four Grammys, including Song of the Year in 2021 for “I Can’t Breathe.” She also earned two previous nominations for Album of the Year, for her compilations “H.E.R.” and “i Used to Know Her.”
Current Grammy Nominations: She has eight nominations this year, also including Song of the Year, Best R&B Performance, and Best R&B Album.
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5. ‘We Are’ by Jon Batiste
Image Credit: Scott Kowalchyk/CBS Current Odds: 9/1
Label: Verve
Released: February 5, 2021
Grammy History: He earned three previous nominations, including Best New Age Album for “Meditations” in 2021. He has yet to win in any category.
Current Grammy Nominations: He has 11 total nominations, more than any other artist. That also includes Record of the Year, Best R&B Album, Best Jazz Instrumental Album, and Best Visual Media Score.
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6. ‘Planet Her’ by Doja Cat
Image Credit: Todd Williamson/NBC Current Odds: 19/2
Label: Kemosabe/RCA
Released: June 25, 2021
Grammy History: She received her first three Grammy nominations in 2021 including Best New Artist and Record of the Year for “Say So.” She has yet to win in any category.
Current Grammy Nominations: She’s nominated eight times, also including Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album.
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7. ‘Evermore’ by Taylor Swift
Image Credit: Beth Garrabrant/Republic Current Odds: 10/1
Label: Republic
Released: December 11, 2020
Grammy History: She’s an 11-time Grammy winner, including three Album of the Year victories for “Fearless,” “1989,” and “Folklore,” which is the most wins in that category ever for a woman.
Current Grammy Nominations: She has one additional Album of the Year nomination as a songwriter on Olivia Rodrigo’s “Sour,” but these are her only two nominations this year.
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8. ‘Montero’ by Lil Nas X
Image Credit: Will Heath/NBC Current Odds: 21/2
Label: Columbia
Released: September 17, 2021
Grammy History: He won two Grammys in 2020 for his breakthrough single “Old Town Road.” That year he was also nominated for Album of the Year for his debut EP “7.”
Current Grammy Nominations: He has five total nominations, also including Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best Melodic Rap Performance.
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9. ‘Justice’ by Justin Bieber
Image Credit: Joe Termini Current Odds: 12/1
Label: Def Jam
Released: March 19, 2021
Grammy History: He’s a two-time Grammy winner with a past Album of the Year nomination for “Purpose” in 2016.
Current Grammy Nominations: He’s an eight-time nominee, also including Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Pop Vocal Album, and Best R&B Performance.
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10. ‘Donda’ by Kanye West
Image Credit: Fairchild Archive/Penske Media Current Odds: 14/1
Label: GOOD/Def Jam
Released: August 29, 2021
Grammy History: He is one of the most awarded artists in Grammy history with 22 victories. But despite Album of the Year nominations for “The College Dropout,” “Late Registration,” “Graduation,” and several more as a producer for other artists, he has never won in the general field.
Current Grammy Nominations: He has five total nominations this year, also including Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, and Best Rap Album.
