2022 Grammy predictions: Best New Artist

The Grammy for Best New Artist is just what it sounds like: an award for a musician who had a career breakthrough during the eligibility period. However, the eligibility requirements have changed over the years. Scroll down to see our odds for 2022, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Check back in as our odds change throughout the season.

What makes an artist “new” can be subjective, but the 2022 Grammy rules and guidelines state, “This category recognizes an artist whose eligibility-year release(s) achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impacted the musical landscape.” Additionally, an artist can be submitted for consideration more than once if they haven’t been nominated, but “an artist may not enter into this category more than three times, including as a performing member of an established group.” Ultimately, a National Screening Committee determined eligibility, but there was no longer a Nomination Review Committee to decide the final contenders; those were discontinued after last year’s controversial snubs.

A look back at previous Best New Artist winners shows how eligibility has changed over time. For instance, Lauryn Hill won in 1999 despite having previously prevailed as a member of The Fugees; she would not be eligible by current standards. And likely neither would Shelby Lynne, who won in 2001 despite having released six studio albums over the course of a decade. But this award has primarily gone to truly new artists, many of whom went on to become superstars, like The Beatles (1965), Carly Simon (1972), Mariah Carey (1991), Alicia Keys (2002), Adele (2009), and most recently Megan Thee Stallion (2021), among many others.

Who will join that auspicious list in 2022? Check out our predictions below based on our users’ predictions.

UPDATED: April 3, 2022