2022 Grammy predictions: Record of the Year

Who will win Record of the Year at the 2022 Grammys? This category is awarded to the artists, producers, and engineers for the year’s best recording. This differs from Song of the Year, which strictly reserved for songwriters. High-profile commercial hits often rise to the top here, so will that be the case this year as well? Scroll down for our official odds in the category, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. The odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list regularly as the season progresses.

From 2019 to 2021, there were eight Grammy slots for Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best New Artist, up from five nominees per category in previous years. This year the academy further expanded that to 10 slots. And that’s not the only major change at the Grammys lately. After a widespread backlash against the voting system, with everyone from former academy CEO Deborah Dugan to The Weeknd accusing the academy of corruption, the Grammys also eliminated nomination review committees in almost all categories. Those committees made the final decisions about who made the cut in the general field and most genre categories, but the committees were also secret and anonymous, leading to questions about conflicts of interest and legitimacy.

This could be good news for popular artists, but it didn’t doom under-the-radar musicians as it might have with an academy-wide popular vote: in fact, Jon Batiste earned more nominations than any other artist. Still, the winners in the last 10 years have all been top-10 hits on the Billboard Hot 100. Most recently teenage breakout Billie Eilish won twice in a row for “Bad Guy” (2020) and “Everything I Wanted” (2021), a feat no one else has achieved but Roberta Flack and U2. Will more history be made in 2022?

UPDATED: April 3, 2022