Who will win Song of the Year at the 2022 Grammys? This category is awarded strictly to the songwriters of the year’s best composition. This differs from Record of the Year, which goes to the artists, producers, and engineers. So which scribe or scribes will take it in 2022? Scroll down for our official odds, which have been calculated based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. The odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list as the season progresses.
From 2019 to 2021, there were eight Grammy nomination slots in this category, as well as in Record of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best New Artist. That was up from five nominees per category as had been the previous standard. And this year the top four categories were expanded again to 10 slots. But that isn’t the only recent shakeup. After prolonged criticism of the voting system, including former academy CEO Deborah Dugan and The Weeknd accusing the organization of corruption, the Grammys also decided to eliminate nomination review committees in almost all categories. Those panels made the ultimate decisions about who earned nominations in general field and most genre categories after an initial academy-wide vote, but the secrecy and anonymity of the committees led to questions about fairness and legitimacy.
While Record of the Year tends to go to popular hits, but since this award is focused on songwriting, it doesn’t always go to massive hits that aren’t necessarily known for their lyrical and thematic complexity. For instance, Daft Punk‘s “Get Lucky” and Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars‘s “Uptown Funk” both won Record of the Year without even being nominated for Song of the Year, and last year Song of the Year went to H.E.R.‘s relatively under-the-radar protest anthem “I Can’t Breathe” against multiple chart-topping hits.
Are we in for another surprise in 2022? Who do you think we’re underestimating (or overestimating)?
UPDATED: April 3, 2022
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1. ‘Drivers License’ by Olivia Rodrigo
Image Credit: Erica Hernandez/Olivia Rodrigo Current Odds: 13/2
Label: Geffen/Interscope
Released: January 8, 2021
Grammy History: The teenage singer, songwriter, and actress had no previous nominations.
Current Grammy Nominations: She’s up for seven awards, also including Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album.
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2. ‘Leave the Door Open’ by Silk Sonic
Image Credit: Francis Specker/CBS Current Odds: 13/2
Label: Aftermath/Atlantic
Released: 2021
Grammy History: Bruno Mars has won 11 Grammys, including a clean sweep of his six categories in 2018. That year’s victories included Song of the Year for “That’s What I Like.” Meanwhile, Anderson Paak is a four-time Grammy winner in rap and R&B categories.
Current Grammy Nominations: “Leave the Door Open” earned them four nominations, also including Record of the Year, Best R&B Performance, and Best R&B Song.
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3. ‘Happier Than Ever’ by Billie Eilish
Image Credit: Kelia Anne MacCluskey/Billie Eilish Current Odds: 7/1
Label: Darkroom/Interscope
Released: July 30, 2021
Grammy History: She has won seven Grammys, including Album of the Year for “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?,” which made her the youngest artist ever to win that award at age 18. She also won Record of the Year twice in a row for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.” “Bad Guy” also won her Song of the Year.
Current Grammy Nominations: She earned seven bids this year, also including Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album.
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4. ‘Fight for You’ by H.E.R.
Image Credit: CBS Current Odds: 8/1
Label: RCA
Released: February 4, 2021
Grammy History: She has won four Grammys including Song of the Year for “I Can’t Breathe” in 2021. She was also nominated for Record of the Year for “Hard Place” in 2020.
Current Grammy Nominations: She’s nominated eight times this year, also including Album of the Year, Best R&B Performance, and Best R&B Album.
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5. ‘Kiss Me More’ by Doja Cat feat. SZA
Image Credit: RCA Current Odds: 19/2
Label: Kemosabe/RCA
Released: April 9, 2021
Grammy History: She earned three Grammy nominations in 2021 including Best New Artist and Record of the Year for “Say So.” But she had yet to be nominated for Song of the Year.
Current Grammy Nominations: She’s nominated eight times, also including Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album.
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6. ‘Right on Time’ by Brandi Carlile
Image Credit: Melodie McDaniel for Variety Current Odds: 19/2
Label: Low Country Sound/Elektra
Released: July 21, 2021
Grammy History: She has won six Grammys, and was recently nominated for Song of the Year for “The Joke.”
Current Grammy Nominations: She’s up for five total awards, including another bid for Song of the Year and Best Pop Solo Performance.
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7. ‘Montero (Call Me by Your Name)’ by Lil Nas X
Image Credit: CBS Current Odds: 21/2
Label: Columbia
Released: March 26, 2021
Grammy History: He earned six Grammy nominations in 2020 including Record of the Year (“Old Town Road”) and Best New Artist. He ended up winning twice for “Old Town Road” in pop and music video categories.
Current Grammy Nominations: He has five total nominations, also including Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Best Melodic Rap Performance.
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8. ‘A Beautiful Noise’ by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile
Image Credit: Brigitte Lacombe for Variety Current Odds: 23/2
Label: RCA
Released: October 29, 2020
Grammy History: Keys has won a whopping 15 Grammys out of 29 nominations, including Best New Artist in 2002. She earned Record of the Year bids for “Fallin'” and “Empire State of Mind.” Carlile has won six Grammys and she was nominated for Record of the Year for “The Joke.”
Current Grammy Nominations: Carlile is up for five total awards, including another bid for Song of the Year and Best Pop Solo Performance. This is Keys’s only nomination this year.
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9. ‘Bad Habits’ by Ed Sheeran
Image Credit: Courtesy of Ed Sheeran Current Odds: 12/1
Label: Asylum
Released: June 25, 2021
Grammy History: He’s a four-time Grammy winner who won Song of the Year for “Thinking Out Loud,” which also earned him a Record of the Year bid.
Current Grammy Nominations: This is his only nomination this year.
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10. ‘Peaches’ by Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon
Image Credit: Will Heath/NBC Current Odds: 13/1
Label: Def Jam
Released: March 19, 2021
Grammy History: He’s a two-time Grammy winner with a past Album of the Year nomination for “Purpose” in 2017. He was also nominated for Song of the Year “Love Yourself” in 2017 and “Despacito” in 2018.
Current Grammy Nominations: Bieber is an eight-time nominee, also including Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Pop Vocal Album, and Best R&B Performance.
