2022 Grammy predictions: Song of the Year

Who will win Song of the Year at the 2022 Grammys? This category is awarded strictly to the songwriters of the year’s best composition. This differs from Record of the Year, which goes to the artists, producers, and engineers. So which scribe or scribes will take it in 2022? Scroll down for our official odds, which have been calculated based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. The odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list as the season progresses.

From 2019 to 2021, there were eight Grammy nomination slots in this category, as well as in Record of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best New Artist. That was up from five nominees per category as had been the previous standard. And this year the top four categories were expanded again to 10 slots. But that isn’t the only recent shakeup. After prolonged criticism of the voting system, including former academy CEO Deborah Dugan and The Weeknd accusing the organization of corruption, the Grammys also decided to eliminate nomination review committees in almost all categories. Those panels made the ultimate decisions about who earned nominations in general field and most genre categories after an initial academy-wide vote, but the secrecy and anonymity of the committees led to questions about fairness and legitimacy.

While Record of the Year tends to go to popular hits, but since this award is focused on songwriting, it doesn’t always go to massive hits that aren’t necessarily known for their lyrical and thematic complexity. For instance, Daft Punk‘s “Get Lucky” and Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars‘s “Uptown Funk” both won Record of the Year without even being nominated for Song of the Year, and last year Song of the Year went to H.E.R.‘s relatively under-the-radar protest anthem “I Can’t Breathe” against multiple chart-topping hits.

Are we in for another surprise in 2022? Who do you think we’re underestimating (or overestimating)?

UPDATED: April 3, 2022