2023 Grammy predictions: Album of the Year

The Grammys are handed out by the Recording Academy, an organization made up of music industry professionals from across the industry. Their nominees for Album of the Year — along with Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and several genre awards — used to be decided by secretive nomination review committees, but the academy eliminated almost all of those in 2021, leaving the decisions to voting members at large without an anonymous, unaccountable intermediary to veto certain choices. Scroll down for our latest racetrack odds, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Those odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list throughout the season.

The nominations under the committee system were often controversial. At the 2021 awards, for instance, The Weeknd didn’t get a single nomination despite a critically acclaimed, chart-topping album (“After Hours”) and a song (“Blinding Lights”) so popular that Billboard ranked it as their number-one single of 2021 (and the number-three single of 2022). The Weeknd accused the academy of corruption, echoing the frustrations of other artists like Halsey and Drake, and he ultimately announced that he would boycott the awards altogether. There have also been allegations of questionable voting practices.

In 2022, the first year without the committee, the Grammys expanded the top general field categories to 10 nominations each, which came not long after those categories had been expanded from five nominees to eight in 2019. The artists nominated for Album of the Year were mostly pop stars (Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, Justin Bieber, Doja Cat, Lil Nas X, and Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga). But the winner ended up being the R&B album “We Are” by Jon Batiste, which was a surprise against albums with much greater commercial success. That indicated that even without the committees to uplift lower-profile recordings, voters won’t necessarily default to the most popular hit in the lineup.

Who do you think will get the academy’s seal of approval this year?

UPDATED: February 3, 2023