The Grammy for Best New Artist goes to a musician who had a major breakthrough during the eligibility period. Breakthroughs are subjective, though, so the eligibility requirements and restrictions have changed over time as the industry has evolved. Scroll down to see our odds for 2023, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Check back in as our odds change throughout the season.
“New” is in the eye of the beholder, but the 2023 Grammy rules and guidelines state, “This category recognizes an artist whose eligibility-year release(s) achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impacted the musical landscape.” An artist must have released five singles or one album as a minimum requirement for eligibility. There is no maximum eligibility limit, but the National Screening Committee may disqualify an artist if they determine the artist achieved their breakthrough in a previous year. Additionally, an artist can be submitted for consideration more than once if they haven’t been nominated, but “an artist may not enter into this category more than three times, including as a performing member of an established group.”
We can see from past winners how eligibility has changed over time. For instance, Lauryn Hill won in 1999 as a solo artist despite having previously prevailed as a member of The Fugees; she would be ineligible by current standards. Shelby Lynne probably would have been ineligible too; she won in 2001 despite having released six studio albums over the course of a decade. But most of the time this award has gone to genuinely new artists, many of whom became superstars, including The Beatles (1965), Carly Simon (1972), Mariah Carey (1991), Alicia Keys (2002), Adele (2009), and most recently Olivia Rodrigo (2022), among many others.
Who will join that auspicious list in 2022? Check out our predictions below based on our users’ predictions.
UPDATED: February 3, 2023
Current Odds: 11/1
The Brazilian artist released her second trilingual album “Versions of Me” in 2022. It reached number-two on Billboard’s Heatseekers chart and produced “Envolver,” her highest-charting single to date on the Hot 100.
Current Odds: 23/2
The Italian rock band rose to fame when they won the 2021 Eurovision Song Contest. Their cover of the song “Beggin” was an international hit. Their third studio album, “Rush!,” drops in January 2023.
3. Wet Leg
Current Odds: 12/1
The British indie rock duo released their self-titled debut studio album in 2022. It debuted at number-14 on the Billboard 200 and produced the viral alternative hit “Chaise Longue.”
Current Odds: 12/1
The rapper released her second album “777” in 2022. It was her first top-20 album on the Billboard 200. Her platinum breakthrough single “Big Energy” reached number-three on the Billboard Hot 100.
5. Muni Long
Current Odds: 14/1
The R&B singer had a breakthrough with her 2022 single “Hrs and Hrs,” which reached the top 20 on the Billboard Hot 100 and went platinum.
6. Omar Apollo
Current Odds: 14/1
The singer-songwriter, who performs in both English and Spanish, released his debut studio album “Ivory” in April 2022. It topped Billboard’s Heatseekers chart.
7. Samara Joy
Current Odds: 15/1
The jazz singer has released two albums as a lead artist including “Linger Awhile,” which earned her an additional Grammy nom for Best Jazz Vocal Album./
8. Domi and JD Beck
Current Odds: 16/1
This jazz duo consists of French keyboardist Domi Louna and American drummer JD Beck. They released their first studio album, “Not Tight,” in 2022. That album earned them an additional Grammy bid for Best Contemporary Instrumental Album.
9. Molly Tuttle
Current Odds: 20/1
The singer, songwriter, and multi-instrumentalist has released four solo albums including “Crooked Tree,” which reached number-two on the US bluegrass chart and earned her an additional nomination for Best Bluegrass Album.
10. Tobe Nwigwe
Current Odds: 22/1
The singer and rapper went viral in 2020 with his song “I Need You To (Breonna Taylor).” He also performed at the 2020 BET Hip Hop Awards. And he has worked with artists including D Smoke, Black Thought, and Royce Da 5’9″.