2023 Grammy predictions: Best New Artist

The Grammy for Best New Artist goes to a musician who had a major breakthrough during the eligibility period. Breakthroughs are subjective, though, so the eligibility requirements and restrictions have changed over time as the industry has evolved. Scroll down to see our odds for 2023, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Check back in as our odds change throughout the season.

“New” is in the eye of the beholder, but the 2023 Grammy rules and guidelines state, “This category recognizes an artist whose eligibility-year release(s) achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impacted the musical landscape.” An artist must have released five singles or one album as a minimum requirement for eligibility. There is no maximum eligibility limit, but the National Screening Committee may disqualify an artist if they determine the artist achieved their breakthrough in a previous year. Additionally, an artist can be submitted for consideration more than once if they haven’t been nominated, but “an artist may not enter into this category more than three times, including as a performing member of an established group.”

We can see from past winners how eligibility has changed over time. For instance, Lauryn Hill won in 1999 as a solo artist despite having previously prevailed as a member of The Fugees; she would be ineligible by current standards. Shelby Lynne probably would have been ineligible too; she won in 2001 despite having released six studio albums over the course of a decade. But most of the time this award has gone to genuinely new artists, many of whom became superstars, including The Beatles (1965), Carly Simon (1972), Mariah Carey (1991), Alicia Keys (2002), Adele (2009), and most recently Olivia Rodrigo (2022), among many others.

Who will join that auspicious list in 2022? Check out our predictions below based on our users’ predictions.

UPDATED: February 3, 2023