2023 Grammy predictions: Record of the Year

Who will win Record of the Year at the 2023 Grammys? This category is awarded to the artists, producers, and engineers of the year’s best recording. This differs from Song of the Year, which is strictly awarded to songwriters. Big commercial hits often rise to the top here, like reigning champion “Leave the Door Open” by Silk Sonic, so will that be the case next time as well? Scroll down for our official odds in the category, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. The odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list regularly as the season progresses.

For most of Grammy history there were five nominees for Record of the Year, as there were for Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist. From 2019 to 2021 there were eight Grammy slots in those big four categories. This year the academy further expanded that to 10 slots. And that’s not the only major change at the Grammys lately. In 2021 they also eliminated nomination review committees in almost all categories. Those committees made the final decisions about who made the cut in the general field and most genre categories, but the committees were anonymous and thus unaccountable, leading to questions about conflicts of interest and legitimacy, especially after The Weeknd was shut out of the nominations and vowed to boycott the awards.

This could be good news for popular artists, who have the highest profiles and likely the most widespread familiarity among voters at large. But it didn’t doom more niche candidates from making the cut in 2022: Jon Batiste earned more nominations than any other artist, including Record of the Year for “Freedom.” Still, the winners in the last 10 years have all been top-10 hits on the Billboard Hot 100. Will that trend continue in 2023?

UPDATED: February 3, 2023