2023 Grammy predictions: Song of the Year

Who’ll win Song of the Year at the 2023 Grammys? This award goes strictly to the songwriters of the year’s best composition. That makes it different from Record of the Year, which goes to the artists, producers, and engineers. Scroll down for our official odds, which have been calculated based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. The odds will keep changing, so we’ll be updating this list as the year progresses.

For most of Grammy history there were five nomination slots in this category. From 2019 to 2021, it was expanded to eight nominees, as were Record of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best New Artist. And in 2022 the top four categories were expanded again to 10 slots. But that wasn’t the only recent shakeup. After prolonged controversy over the voting system, the Grammys eliminated nomination review committees in almost all categories. Those panels made the final decisions about who made the cut in the general field and in most of the genre categories after an initial academy-wide vote, but their secrecy led to questions about fairness.

Record of the Year usually goes to popular hits, but since this award is focused on songwriting, the Recording Academy often deviates from blockbuster songs that aren’t necessarily known for their lyrical or thematic complexity. For instance, Daft Punk‘s “Get Lucky” and Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars‘s “Uptown Funk” both won Record of the Year without even being nominated for Song of the Year, while songs that didn’t rise as high on the charts like Luther Vandross‘s “Dance with My Father,” John Mayer‘s “Daughters,” and H.E.R.‘s “I Can’t Breathe” have claimed Song of the Year in the 21st century so far.

So who gets it in 2023? Do you think we’re underestimating (or overestimating) anyone?

UPDATED: February 3, 2023