2024 Grammy predictions: Album of the Year

The Grammys are presented every year by the Recording Academy, an organization composed of music insiders from across the industry. For years their nominations for Album of the Year were decided by secret nomination review committees, but the academy eliminated almost all of those in 2021, so now the decisions are made entirely by members at large without an intermediary to override their choices. Scroll down for our latest racetrack odds, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Those odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list throughout the season.

Not everyone in the industry regards the Grammys fondly, though. At the 2021 awards, for instance, The Weeknd didn’t get a single nomination despite an acclaimed album (“After Hours”) and a song (“Blinding Lights”) so popular that Billboard ranked it as their number-one single of 2021. The Weeknd blamed corruption, and other artists like Halsey and Drake have cried foul too. The Weeknd decided to boycott the awards entirely. Drake has repeatedly declined to be considered too. There have even been allegations of questionable voting practices from within the academy.

In 2022, the first year without the committee, the Grammys expanded the Big Four categories to 10 nominations. The winner ended up being the R&B album “We Are” by Jon Batiste, which was a surprise against albums with much greater commercial success. That indicated that even without the committees to uplift lower-profile recordings, voters won’t necessarily default to the most popular hit in the lineup. The 2023 awards were also surprising, ending in the coronation of Harry Styles (“Harry’s House”) over expected front-runners Beyonce (“Renaissance”) and Adele (“30”).

Will we be shocked again in 2024? Who do you think will get the academy’s seal of approval this time around?

UPDATED: March 16, 2023