Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

2 Oscar Experts’ predictions PANIC: Pete vs. Tom on Best Picture race – HELP! [Video & audio podcast]

That bold Oscar wag Pete Hammond (Deadline) doesn’t agree with 19 out of 21 Experts at Gold Derby who predict “Roma” will win the Oscar for Best Picture. “I’m picking ‘Green Book’ since it won the Producers’ Guild Award,” he declares in our webcam chat. Watch above or listen to the audio podcast version below.

“PGA has the same voting method as the Oscars,” he notes. “They both use the preferential ballot. ‘Green Book’ seems to be the kind of likeable movie that would be a strong number-two vote if it’s not your number one. ‘Roma’ is a strong number-one vote” or might be ranked low on a voter’s ballot due to resistance against Netflix by the traditional film-industry base, Pete adds.

I disagree and defend my own “Roma” prediction by reminding Pete that “we’ve seen a pattern of esoteric, art-house movies winning Best Picture recently, such as ‘Shape of Water,’ ‘Moonlight’ and ‘Birdman.'” “Roma” fits that pattern. “Green Book” does not.

Pete concedes that point and adds, “There are many other movies that have a path to winning Best Picture,” he notes, citing “A Star Is Born” and “The Favourite.”