Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

Oscar predictions mystery: What’s REALLY ahead to win Best Picture? Tom O’Neil tracks the derby

Attention, Oscar prognosticators: Don’t get smug over your current Best Picture prediction. Just because we now, finally, have a clear frontrunner (“Roma” is ahead by miles, according to latest odds by our Experts, Editors and Users) doesn’t mean everything’s rock solid.

Hollywood is an earthquake zone.

The next rumbling may be felt this evening when the ACE Eddies will be doled out for best film editing. As Paul Sheehan notes, the Eddie “has a good track record as a preview of the Oscar winner for Best Picture (17 out of the last 28) and a great one for¬†forecasting who will win the Film Editing Oscar (21 of the last 28).”

That rumbling may be ominous because “Roma” has a good chance to lose at the Eddies where Gold Derby predicts “First Man” will prevail. “Roma” is in second place, but its hopes may be dinged by the fact that Alfonso Cuaron is nominated. Guild members may not be too thrilled that the film’s director is muscling in on their editors’ turf. That’s probably why “Roma” got snubbed in the equivalent Oscar race. Hey, Hollywood jobs are precious.

So if “Roma” loses at the guild, does that really mean anything, especially since the Eddie hasn’t been a great Oscar crystal ball of late? The last few Oscar Best Pictures lost their guild matches: “Shape of Water” was sunk by “Dunkirk,” “Moonlight” eclipsed by “Arrival.”