Forum Replies Created
November 24, 2020 at 10:49 am #1203865036
Congratulations to Taylor Swift on her third Album of the Year.
(And if not, congrats to Dua Lipa on her first.)November 23, 2020 at 4:44 pm #1203858984
I think Sam Levinson is being nominated for Director here. The HFPA loves a director who had a challenge (as evidenced by Ridley Scott’s nomination for ATMITW), and filming an entire movie during a global pandemic sure is a hell of a challenge. I’m not currently expecting Levinson to get in anywhere else, and I’m not yet predicting M&M in Picture (though I am getting close). However, the narrative around his film seems like something the the Globes won’t be able to resist.November 23, 2020 at 4:06 pm #1203858875
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
This is very interesting. I haven’t seen Miss Juneteenth yet (though I do plan on watching it), but I’ve heard nothing but wonderful things about Beharie and would love to see her nominated. No shade intended, but what’s your thinking here?November 23, 2020 at 10:54 am #1203857849
Chadwick having the third best chance for a nom?
Oldman, Hopkins, and Boseman are all locks and getting in, guaranteed. That top three ranking was pretty arbitrary just because they’re all such sure shots that I didn’t put much thought into how to rank them. Any of those three could have been first, second, or third and it would be the same to me. Not trying to make it seem like he’s a lower-tier contender, sorry.November 23, 2020 at 10:46 am #1203857817
an acclaimed performance for a film that’s a non-factor outside of their performance
I think it’s too early to say that M&M will be a non-factor outside Zendaya, though. JDW is absolutely in the Actor mix too. He made GG and SAG for BlacKkKlansman, could maybe get a boost from Tenet as well, and I have a feeling awards shows will nominate both together or neither. And since it’ll definitely the most ‘timely’ movie in the mix, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the theater-esque quarantine relationship drama get an Original Screenplay nod as well, especially since that fifth spot seems to be wide open.November 23, 2020 at 10:40 am #1203857798
Williams and Parker are not happening. Sorry.
With the Dern/Tavira/Aghdashloo comparisons, they were the top competitors from their films in their category. Burstyn and Colman are obviously first in line from their films, and it’s happened before with Harrelson, but Three Billboards was the frontrunner to win Picture and the SAG Ensemble WINNER. The Father and PoaW will be lucky to even get a SAG ensemble nomination, something most are not predicting. I’d be more convinced if we’d seen acclaim for Parker or Williams, but Burstyn and Colman are sucking up all their air. Voters would have to be superfans of The Father or PoaW to give it a second supporting actress slot, and I really doubt they’ll do that when it’s a limited five. I really doubt The Father or PoaW are going to be the juggernauts some think they’ll be, and it’s hard to get into the same supporting category twice without being a juggernaut. It’s why I think Lily Collins is the only one who even has a shot, but like I showed in my ranking, she’s still a long shot.
I don’t see Bakalova happening and have her nowhere in my predictions for any show, and I think she’s still got a much higher shot than Williams or Parker.November 22, 2020 at 11:30 pm #1203856530
I have a strange suspicion that Billie Holiday will be a Phantom Thread-type player. Sure, Day is no Day-Lewis and Daniels is no PTA, but I’m currently predicting it to get Day in pretty much everywhere with no other major nods but then explode at the Oscars in a lot of the same categories as Phantom Thread (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress).November 22, 2020 at 9:13 pm #1203856384
(By likeliness of nomination, not win)
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
2. Gary Oldman, Mank
3. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World
7. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
9. Steven Yeun, Minari
10. Riz Ahmed, Sound of MetalNovember 22, 2020 at 9:10 pm #1203856378
My current top ten (by likeliness of nomination, not win):
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
2. Olivia Colman, The Father
3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
4. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World
8. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
9. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
10. Lily Collins, MankNovember 19, 2020 at 11:03 am #1203847897
If Zendaya keeps pumping out film projects like Malcolm & Marie, she’ll win before she’s thirty. But I don’t think it’ll be this year.November 19, 2020 at 10:57 am #1203847878
Natasha Lyonne is the real wild card here. She won’t win, but I think she’s being underestimated for nominations. Depending on how big / what type of role Tallulah Bankhead plays in Billie Holiday, she could have some REALLY great material to work with. And OITNB and Russian Doll fans know that Lyonne can really deliver the goods, so if she’s got the material, I have faith she’ll knock it out of the park and be a serious contender.November 19, 2020 at 10:44 am #1203847857
Happiest Season is Adapted? I think it’s supposed to be in Original, I can’t seem to find evidence anywhere that it’s based off of anything.November 19, 2020 at 8:48 am #1203847663
I think Regina King has a good chance at a directing nomination just because industry voters LOVE her. Obviously she’s an Emmy darling, winning four over the last six years (with three different projects). The stars kind of aligned in just the right way for her to win the Oscar, but it’s telling that IBSCT underperformed yet she was still always the obvious winner. Her directing in the film is also just very good, and the fact that she’d be the first black female nominee will only help her narrative more.November 19, 2020 at 12:31 am #1203847046
Can we please get Dominique Fishback added to the prediction centers for Judas?
Oh and Natasha Lyonne for Billie Holiday while we’re at it?November 19, 2020 at 12:28 am #1203847044
I was SO confident in my drama actress lineup until today. Davis/Day/Kirby/McDormand/Winslet seemed so strong to me, but now that Zendaya is in the mix I’m having trouble deciding who to sub out for her. M&M seems like the type of thing they’ll eat UP, but that group of five feels so solid I just don’t know what to do. My gut goes Day or Winslet, but I’ve got 100/1 odds on Day, and Winslet should never be underestimated with the HFPA.