I mean… Tim Burton’s Batman was literally the next year, so I don’t see why it wouldn’t have just been Nicholson?

Best Picture – Drama

• Da 5 Bloods
• The Father
• Mank
• Nomadland
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Picture – Musical or Comedy

• The French Dispatch
• Hamilton (if eligible)
• Next Goal Wins (if 2020)
• On the Rocks
• West Side Story

(*if not Hamilton and/or Next Goal Wins, then The Personal History of David Copperfield and/or The…[Read more]

I think the five highest contenders for a Supporting Actor role (assuming everyone [except maybe Redmayne] goes Supporting) would be Sacha Baron Cohen, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Rylance, Jeremy Strong and/or Frank Langella. I currently have both Cohen and Absul-Mateen in my predictions but could easily see a lot of other people from that cast…[Read more]

(Looking exclusively at Cast Ensemble because I think it’s too tricky to predict the nuanced of the individual acting races between Oscar and SAG)

• Da 5 Bloods (Chadwick Boseman, Paul Walter Hauser, Nguyễn Ngọc Lâm, Lê Y Lan, Norm Lewis, Delroy Lindo, Jonathan Majors, Veronica Ngo, Johnny Trí Nguyễn, Jasper Pääkönen, Clarke Peters, Sandy Hương…

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Henry Fonda for the next 41 years after his Grapes of Wrath nomination, until his second nomination (and win) for On Golden Pond

Tarantino and Sorkin both missing out on screenplay nominations in 2015 after winning in 2012/2010 respectively

Nicholson missing for The Departed

Lupita mising for Us

Lots of actors who won on their first nomination…[Read more]

For people that have seen the original play, would any of the four leads of One Night in Miami make sense to go supporting? Or are they all true leads? If so, which one/s would make the most sense to build a campaign behind in lead? I could also see it being a serious contender in Picture, Director (King has been on a hot streak the past few years…[Read more]

Was hoping for (and predicted) D’Arcy Carden, finally, so that was great, but I was genuinely shocked that William Jackson Harper also got in! He’s been consistently my favorite performer on the show and I never thought he’d actually get in, but he did! Everything else aside about these nominations, that’s one I’m celebrating

Giancarlo Esposito as the only acting nomination for Better Call Saul… when Odenkirk, Seehorn, AND Banks (not to mention Tony Dalton) are all at their A+ game, and I genuinely remember maybe one thing that Gus did this entire season. I’m so genuinely confused by this.

Wanted to list some names I haven’t seen mentioned in this thread yet. Some of these I think are more likely than others, but I think any of them, with the right role, could absolutely steamroll a season:

Bryan Cranston

Peter Dinklage

Robert Downey Jr.

John Goodman

Hugh Grant

Julia Louis-Dreyfus

John Carroll Lynch

Viggo Mortensen

Bill…[Read more]

I’m working on my list for Supporting Actor contenders, and I realized all five that I currently have in my predictions would be first time (acting) nominees, as are four of the five on the next tier. Has there ever been an acting lineup where all five were first time nominees? Here’s my tiered list for that whole category, with any previous…[Read more]

Nomadland received an MPAA rating (R), so that means its finished. Could potentially be released this year?

1990:

• Avalon
• Cyrano de Bergerac
• Dick Tracy
• The Grifters
• Reversal of Fortune
• (alts: Green Card; Misery; Pretty Woman)

1991:

• Boyz n the Hood
• The Fisher King
• Fried Green Tomatoes
• Terminator 2: Judgment Day
• Thelma and Louise
• (alts: Barton Fink; Grand Canyon; Rambling Rose)

1992:

• Aladdin
• Enchanted April
• Husbands and…

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Here’s my set of tiered longlists. Original Screenplay is MUCH more stacked than Adapted this year, just like last year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

• Da 5 Bloods
• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• On the Rocks
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Runners-Up:

• Ammonite
• C’mon C’mon
• Minari
• Red, White, and Water
• Tenet

Next Up:

• All Day and a Night

…

[Read more]

Considering Vice started production in September of 2017 and wasn’t released until over a year later, I don’t think there’s any way it’ll be done in time for the end of 2020, especially because I don’t think many productions are back up yet currently.

Ranked in tiers (not sure if some of these have been delayed or not; if any of them have then just ignore them)

NOMINEES

• Ammonite
• Da 5 Bloods
• The Father
• The French Dispatch
• Hillbilly Elegy
• Mank
• News of the World
• Tenet
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
• West Side Story

RUNNERS-UP

• Dune
• Minari
• On the Rocks
• Red, White, and…

[Read more]

Current predictions for the above the line categories, plus five runners up each. (Provided these are all still to be released this year, I haven’t stayed 100% up to date on what is/isn’t postponed recently)

Best Picture

• Ammonite
• Da 5 Bloods
• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• Minari
• News of the World
• Nomadland
• Tenet
• The Trial of the…

[Read more]

Here’s my thoughts, going back as far as 1950

2019: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

2018: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2017: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2016: Garth Davis, Lion

2015: Ridley Scott, The Martian

2014: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

2013: Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

2012: Ben Affleck,…[Read more]