[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1204143298

Anthony Hopkins is the oldest Best Actor nominee in history, and the first Lead Actor nominee in his 80s.

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1204141956

That Frances stat is even more impressive when you realize she’s only the seventh performer ever to be nominated across five different decades, after Laurence Olivier, Katharine Hepburn, Paul Newman, Michael Caine, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep

This is also the first time ever that all five Original Screenplay nominees are also nominated for Best Picture

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1204141940

Both stats hold this year! With Andra Day and Vanessa Kirby as the only nominations for their respective films, and with The White Tiger only being nominated for its screenplay, there remains only 6 years with no lone acting nominees, and we enter our 20th consecutive year of having at least one lone screenplay nominee!

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203984522

2019:

• Joaquin Phoenix, Renée Zellweger, Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Leonardo DiCaprio
• Brad Pitt, Laura Dern, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Tom Hanks

2018:

• Rami Malek, Olivia Colman, Glenn Close, Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper
• Mahershala Ali, Regina King, Richard E. Grant, Sam Elliott, Rachel Weisz

2017:

• Frances McDormand, Gary Oldman, Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Hawkins
• Sam Rockwell, Allison Janney, Willem Dafoe, Laurie Metcalf, Richard Jenkins

2016:

• Casey Affleck, Emma Stone, Denzel Washington, Natalie Portman, Isabelle Huppert
• Viola Davis, Mahershala Ali, Dev Patel, Jeff Bridges, Michelle Williams

2015:

• Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, Eddie Redmayne
• Alicia Vikander, Mary Rylance, Sylvester Stallone, Rooney Mara, Mark Ruffalo

2014:

• Eddie Redmayne, Julianne Moore, Michael Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Steve Carell
• J.K. Simmons, Patricia Arquette, Edward Norton, Ethan Hawke, Emma Stone

2013:

• Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, Leonardo DiCaprio, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Judi Dench
• Lupita Nyong’o, Jared Leto, Jennifer Lawrence, Michael Fassbender, Barkhad Abdi

2012:

• Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Jessica Chastain
• Anne Hathaway, Christoph Waltz, Tommy Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert De Niro

2011:

• Jean Dujardin, Meryl Streep, Brad Pitt, George Clooney, Viola Davis
• Octavia Spencer, Christopher Plummer, Jessica Chastain, Bérénice Bejo, Kenneth Branagh

2010:

• Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, Annette Bening
• Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, Geoffrey Rush, Amy Adams, Mark Ruffalo

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203984518

The costume design and production design wins for Alice in Wonderland – a truly visually repulsive movie – that pretty much won for “most” rather than “best”

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203968097

Two names that I think both could easily be the subject of a “they’ve never been nominated but everyone in Hollywood loves them” narrative in the right (probably Supporting) roles would be John Goodman and Kirsten Dunst. I’m interested in what Dunst could bring to the new Jane Campion next year, and Goodman is a pretty consistent presence so I wouldn’t be surprised if either or both of them bag it on their first go.

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203933163

Maybe I’m a fool, but I think Glenn Close is getting a nomination still. Not likely for a win, but a nomination is entirely possible at this point – I’ll wait to see how the Globes/SAG land with her, but I think that’s one piece of bait that the voters are going to fall for even if the rest of the film sinks. The other four nominees seem fairly strong for now, but any of my next four contenders (but probably only one of the top two) could usurp Close if I’m wrong (which I dearly hope I am). Not sure if Ronan is quite as strong as her inclusion in the top ten suggests, but I’m struggling to find anyone else to take her place. Collette? Kidman? Manville? Swankie? Possible, but for now I’m keeping Saoirse in that last slot. Here’s where I’m at for now:

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
2. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
3. Olivia Colman, The Father
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
5. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World
8. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

Unranked Contenders:

• Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
  Lily Collins, Mank
  Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
  Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
  Nicole Kidman, The Prom
  Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  Valerie Mahaffey, French Exit
  Lesley Manville, Let Him Go
  Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  Swankie, Nomadland
  Olivia Williams, The Father
  Debra Winger, Kajillionaire

[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203933151

I have no idea what to think of this category at this point, as there’s a rotating list of about 12-15 names that all simultaneously seem like shoo-ins and long shots, with very few I would feel comfortable predicting as anywhere close to a sure bet, unlike the other three acting categories. Kaluuya, Odom Jr., and Cohen all seem plausible, but I could just as easily see the race going forward and leaving any one of them off. From there, my last two slots are constantly switching out Boseman, Murray, Tucci, Rylance, Abdul-Mateen, even Strathairn and Dance who haven’t been getting quite as much love but are veterans in major contenders that could still ride that wave. I would love to see this critics’ love for Paul Raci carrying over to the Oscars, and he could absolutely do it, but I’m feeling very wary that a performance so subtle from a non-star could translate beyond critics. Domingo and Turman are both great, and would make my own lineup at the moment, but I’m afraid they might be overshadowed by their flashier costars. Here’s where I’m at now:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…
3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Unranked Contenders:

• Tom Burke, Mank
  Charles Dance, Mank
  Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
  Lucas Hedges, French Exit
  Aldis Hodge, One Night in Miami…
  Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  Orion Lee, First Cow
  Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
  Tom Pelphrey, Mank
  Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203933140

As with everyone else’s thoughts on this category, the top three are solid in terms of a nomination though I go back and forth on where I think the narrative will run for the win, and the last two slots are up in the air. Ultimately I think Meryl is always a safe bet, especially in a movie where she sings, dances, and cries – plus, she hasn’t been nominated for two years in a row, so the thirst for her is going to come back in full. Sophia’s chances are hurt by Italy not submitting her film, but I think that her legendary status (see: the initial trailer for the film) as well as the Diane Warren song are both going to keep the film in the conversation in ways that otherwise it wouldn’t be. I see Mulligan as the Gyllenhaal/Hawke of this season, showing up a lot beforehand but ultimately proving too much for the acting branch and possibly only scoring a screenplay nomination. Day/Zendaya/Flanigan all have a good shot as well, but I think Kirby is going to suck up a lot of the ‘ingenue’ attention. Here’s where I’m at right now:

1. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Meryl Streep, The Prom
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Unranked Contenders:

• Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
  Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
  Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
  Carrie Coon, The Nest
  Julia Garner, The Assistant
  Yeri Han, Minari
  Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man
  Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
  Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
  Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
  Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.
  Evan Rachel Wood, Kajillionaire

[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203933117

I’ve seen some people making the case – and I’m starting to get on board with it – that there’s a lack of enthusiasm around Oldman’s performance (and Mank as a whole) that could end up with him left off a la De Niro in The Irishman. I’m making a bold claim here and thinking that in a year marked with, by my current predictions, multiple historic records broken (two women in Best Director, woman of color winning Best Director, etc), we’ll have a Leading Actor category with only one white nominee. I’m not putting full faith in this as the Oscars are nothing if not disappointing in regards to diversity, but I just have a feeling. Here’s where I’m at now:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
5. Steven Yeun, Minari

6. Gary Oldman, Mank
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami…
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Unranked Contenders:

• George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
  James Corden, The Prom
  Winston Duke, Nine Days
  Colin Firth, Supernova
  Eli Goree, One Night in Miami…
  Tom Holland, Cherry
  Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
  Viggo Mortensen, Falling
  Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
  Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
  Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie

[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203932725

Thank you to all of you who followed this project along over the last few months! I’m thinking of following it up with another similar poll – and now that this one has accrued so many followers on here and on Instagram, I think we’ll be looking at a much wider array of responses. For the topic, I’m thinking of doing the films with the best cinematography, so be on the lookout for the poll for that somewhat soon; I’ll probably take a break for a bit and then post that on January 1, and take entries over that whole month.

(Also, for anyone wanting to see a similar list of both the Top 100 Films and Top 100 Directors, the Instagram account @magicoffilm did both of those recently, and was the inspiration for my own poll, so check out those results – but beware, some of the results are just as wild, if not more so, than this list here)

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203932456

1. Robert De Niro (3,735 points | 194 mentions | 36 first places | 25 second places | 18 third places)

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203928961

2. Daniel Day-Lewis (3,437 points | 174 mentions | 37 first places | 27 second places | 15 third places)

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203927877

3. Jack Nicholson (3,072 points | 167 mentions | 16 first places | 14 second places | 11 third places)

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203925050

4. Al Pacino (2,658 points | 157 points | 3 first places | 16 second places | 15 third places)

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