[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1204018623

I don’t get the globes are racist bit myself. If they were, how do you explain Regina King’s nomination for directing (the 2nd black woman nominated in that category, while the Oscar have yet to nominate any), two black actresses in drama, and many poc getting a nomination. They only have 5 slots, and Nomadland, Chicago 7 and Mank were never going to miss. Are they racist because they preferred Promising young woman and The father over Judas, ONIM, Da 5 bloods and Ma rainey’s? I don’t think so. Snubbing Lindo and Youn Yuh-jung is a travesty, but that doesn’t make them racist either.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1204018143

I think we now have an established top 6, and it’s interesting to see Da 5 bloods, Ma rainey, Minari, Soul, Judas and Sound of metal contending for 2-3 spots. So much for a weak year.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1204017363

So we’re back to Close vs Colman vs Seyfried, aren’t we?

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203964222

SN wrote:

Chicago 7 would be a worse BP winner than Green Book. It’s so painful to think about this.

I think Chicago 7 is a better film, but that’s admittedly not saying much. It isn’t a bad winner but there lots of better options.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203963186

wolfali wrote:

Well Mank is definitely behind Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Father and <i>Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom </i>(not necessarily in that order). Then it potentially be below Soul, Minari, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman, <i>Sound of Metal </i>and <i>Judas and the Black Messiah</i>. There is also <i>One Night in Miami </i>but I think that will end up like If Beale Street Could Talk. Then in director (and I say this as a Fincher stan) we know Fincher is definitely below Zhao and potentially Zeller, Chung and Lee. Then there is S. King, Fennell and Marder. Mank is only locked for nominations in Sound, Costume Design, Makeup and Hair, Cinematography, Production Design and Original Score.

Mank isn’t behind Ma Rainey or The father in picture, it’s easily top 5. In director, Zhao is the only one above Fincher, there’s no way he won’t be nominated there.

Those who are predicting a big underperformance for Mank on nomination day will be very disappointed..

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203960561

Ruby Sparks wrote:

I too saw Nomadland… and while I understand comparisons to Moonlight, I don’t think we’ve seen a story as naturalistic as Nomadland win Best Picture before. Not to say it can’t be done— it’s a very likeable movie for even the most impatient viewers. DGA and PGA feel very possible but not sure about WGA or SAG.

I think it’s more similar to Boyhood than to Moonlight. And considering the former was very close to the win in a more competitive year, Nomadland should be safe.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203956262

Cabiria wrote:

Ugh…you gotta be kidding me. The problem is this is MANK, not some Scorsese masterpieces. Scorsese won for The Departed btw.

My point is Scorsese, who is the second most nominated director of all-time, wasn’t an “academy darling” when he was at Fincher’s age. Gangs of New York and The aviator aren’t the best Scorsese films, but they got a ton of nominations, and the latter a lot of wins too. Mank, imo, is a lot better than both, although I recognize I love it more than most people.

Brae wrote:

At this point it’s clear that Mank is on life support. It’s going to struggle to get a picture nomination, Oldman is slipping despite the fact that this is his vehicle… So I don’t even think Fincher is all that safe for nomination, truth be told. This film can’t survive another 2 months when there are flashier and easier options that we haven’t even seen yet coming. It’s not August anymore people

How is that clear? All we got is some critics awards, we still don’t know how the industry awards are going to react to the film. Mank and Fincher are locks in picture and director. What easier and flashier options are there? Every single director but Zhao has a way harder path for a nomination than Fincher.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203956060

Cabiria wrote:

For what? He’s even not a Oscars darling, same for Nolan. Oscar nomination history: Nolan- only 1 Fincher-only 2

Scorsese had 3 nomination up until Gangs of New York. He was nominated for 6 of his next 8 films. Being an Oscars darling is not set in stone.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203955582

I haven’t seen a lot of contenders for best actress but Frances McDormand is truly incredible in Nomadland and deserves every win she’s getting. I don’t care that she has 2 Oscars, or that every other critics group is awarding her, if she’s the best she should win. Nomadland has a way talkier screenplay than I thought too and it’s very well-written, idk what y’all are complaining about.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203955436

I just watched Nomadland and it floored me. I didn’t think I’d love it more than The rider but here I am. In terms of its picture chances, I think if Boyhood got so close and Moonlight managed to win, this’s likely our winner.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203950501

SN wrote:

Where does this passion comes from? The industry? I genuinely want to know. Kaufman is not working with Spike Jonze anymore. The days of nominating his screenwriting are over.

It actually has some passion from the industry, David Ehrlich of IndieWire has moderated a Q&A with 4 directors and Charlie Kaufman about the film. Not saying this will lead to it getting nominated but it’s proof that it has enough love within the industry to get a nomination.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203947310

The screenplay nomination will be 100% deserved.

X

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[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203944124

estrelas wrote:

Florian Zeller is definitely the one who has the biggest chance of a directing nomination for a play adaptation. Also, the fact that he’s the writer of the play could help his chances.

His direction and the editing in The father are getting big raves and I think it could result in it becoming a bigger contender than most think it will be.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203944079

Mank will definitely be nominated for picture and director and I don’t know why we’re having this debate.

[fyras19 Joined: Nov 25th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 177 View Predictions]

#1203943315

KAZ-2.5 wrote:

People always exaggerate how much the Oscars like David Fincher. The Oscars are not in love with him and I don’t know why that’s not being factored into all predictions.

It’s true he isn’t the most celebrated director by the academy, but his last 4 films all got acting nominations and he had a film with 13 nominations and another that was 2nd in both picture and director. Even The girl with the dragon tattoo got PGA and DGA nominations and ended up with 5 nods and a win. Scorsese was in a similar situation before this century; he was nominated for directing “only” 3 times and his films usually underperformed with Oscars, and now he’s an academy darling.