[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1205242049

Even today, Mescal also just got unanimous raves for his stage performance as Stanley Kowalski in the revival of A Streetcar Named Desire, which is currently playing at the Almeida.

He may miss out on getting the nom for a film that may be too small when all is said and done, but undoubtedly his star is on the ascendency.

[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1205227855

Oscars voting is about to begin. Who’s on track for a nomination?

In a big swings prediction piece I wrote a couple months back, I mused about the possibility of Cruise earning a lead actor nomination for his singular ability to take a 30-some-odd-year break between high-flying blockbuster action movies and still convincingly play an irresistible, arrogant fighter pilot capable of saving the world and not have audiences rolling their eyes.

But now that people are jumping on the Cruise bandwagon, I’m hearing from more actors branch voters who just aren’t feeling it. So if not Cruise, who gets that fifth spot? I’m leaning toward Mescal for his soulful turn in a movie that leaves people emotionally devastated. (That’s good!)

-Glenn Whipp, LA Times

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#1205146814

Cabiria wrote:

Have you watched Aftersun? Because it seems like the typical independent film that will be left out in major industry awards. I don’t see any aspect of Aftersun being strong enough to break into the Oscars race. Paul Mescal’s performance is also too subtle to make a splash out of those independent or regional critic film awards.

I have, months ago. It’s one of the best performances of the year. You say too subtle, but Mescal gives such a layered, natural and lived-in performance that deftly handles depression that makes the Son’s handling akin to a jackhammer.

I can easily envision one or more of the trifecta going for him given how many of those voting members have praised Aftersun and given the film 100s on Metacritic. Unless they want to tip their influence for an International Feature performance or weigh in on the Farrell, Butler, Fraser discourse.

So why wouldn’t he be in play for Critics Choice? BAFTA, especially given the jury slots? the NEW Golden Globes? It’s gone underreported that the invitation was extended to FIPRESCI members to participate in the voting process for the globes this year. Aftersun has been recognized by FIPRESCI members as they have been participants in the juries that have awarded the film during its international festival run.

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#1205146062

It is a shame since A24 is going to devote its time and resources to running a campaign that is currently tiptoeing around The Whale. When they have Aftersun, which critics have already served to them on a silver platter –

Best Reviewed Film of the Year. Breakthrough Director of the Year (Wells). Breakthrough Performance of the Year (Corio)

“…Wells, with the unaffected precision of a lyric poet, is very nearly reinventing the language of film…” – A.O. Scott, The New York Times

4x Gotham Award Nominee, 16x BIFA Nominee, EFA Best Actor Nominee Paul Mescal

The campaign practically writes itself. Put those on ads ASAP, but they won’t.

Mescal isn’t an ‘unknown’ on the same level of a Calva either. Mescal has already won a BAFTA, beating the likes of Josh O’Connor in the Crown, Boyega and Parkes in Small Axe, Essiedu in I May Destroy You. A truly stacked category consisting of industry veterans and bigger rising stars than Mescal, who was truly a newcomer at that time.

[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1205128606

Currently at a 96 on MC and has begun its NY/LA Limited Release.

“It’s hard to find a critical language to account for the delicacy and intimacy of this movie. This is partly because Wells, with the unaffected precision of a lyric poet, is very nearly reinventing the language of film, unlocking the medium’s often dormant potential to disclose inner worlds of consciousness and feeling.” – A.O. Scott, The New York Times

“A stunning debut that develops with the gradual poignancy of a Polaroid, Charlotte Wells’ “Aftersun” isn’t just an honest movie about the way that we remember the people we’ve lost — fragmented, elusive, nowhere and everywhere all at once — it’s also a heart-stopping act of remembering unto itself. Here, in the span of an oblique but tender story that feels small enough to fit on an instant photo (or squeeze into the LCD screen of an old camcorder), Wells creates a film that gradually echoes far beyond its frames.” – David Ehrlich, Indiewire

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[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1205127544

It’s a shame that The Whale is A24’s priority behind EEAAO when it should easily be Aftersun. Paul could easily sweep the trifecta.

[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1205127540

Aftersun. Paul Mescal.

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[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1205102540

Just stepped out of @TheNYFF press screening of Charlotte Wells’ AFTERSUN with Paul Mescal. This was the 10th film I’ve seen so far and the only one that got warm applause. The press is typically very sober so I thought the applause was notable @A24 @FilmLinc #NYFF60 pic.twitter.com/VfbfsU5utt

— Ankit Jhunjhunwala at #NYFF60 (@fuzzyyarns) September 28, 2022

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#1203902193

Interested!

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#1203610085

Never really considered Janney due to the competitiveness of that category coupled with the TV academy consistently not caring to nominate TV movie performances, except for generally one lead performance a year. Which this year it went to Jackman. They really dont go for supporting performances in tv movie anymore. The one exception over the last several years has been Pfeiffer in Wizard of Lies iirc off the top of my head.

[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1203610015

Series Only (8/56)
-The Alienist (2018)
-Roots (2016)
-Bonnie & Clyde (2014)
-Treme (2014)
-The White Queen (2014)
-The Bible (2013)
-The Pillars of Earth (2011)
-The Pacific (2010)

Series + Lead Only (10/56)
-Unorthodox (2020)
-Little Fires Everywhere (2020)
-Genius: Picasso (2018)
-Patrick Melrose (2018)
-Genius: Einstein (2017)
-The Honorable Woman (2015)
-Luther S3 (2014)
-Phil Spector (2013)
-Luther S2 (2012)
-Cinema Verite (2011)

Series + Lead + Supporting (37/56)
-Watchmen (2020)
-Mrs. America (2020)
-Chernobyl (2019)
-When They See Us (2019)
-Escape at Dannemora (2019)
-Fosse/Verdon (2019)
-Sharp Objects (2019)
-The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (2018)
-Godless (2018)
-Big Little Lies (2017)
-Fargo S3 (2017)
-Feud: Bette and Joan (2017)
-The Night Of (2017)
-The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (2016)
-American Crime S2 (2016)
-Fargo S2 (2016)
-The Night Manager (2016)
-Olive Kitteridge (2015)
-American Crime S1 (2015)
-American Horror Story: Freak Show (2015)
-Wolf Hall (2015)
-Fargo S1 (2014)
-American Horror Story: Coven (2014)
-Behind the Candelabra (2013)
-American Horror Story: Asylum (2013)
-Political Animals (2013)
-Top of the Lake (2013)
-Game Change (2012)
-American Horror Story: Murder House (2012)
-Hatfields & McCoys (2012)
-Hemingway & Gellhorn (2012)
-Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (2012)
-Downton Abbey (2011)
-The Kennedys (2011)
-Mildred Pierce (2011)
-Too Big to Fail (2011)
-Return to Cranford (2010)

Series + Supporting Only (1/56)
-Unbelievable (2020)

—
I compiled this trend in LS a couple months ago and sat quietly on this stat for the longest time waiting, knowing that Series + Supporting only wasnt something that happened the entire last decade in spite of the rules changes throughout as a reason why a Hollywood lead like Pope wouldn’t miss (because I had Hollywood + supporting players in), but then THAT happened.

Truly Unbelievable.

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#1203609825

mafro987 wrote:

Not shockingly. We shouldn’t have underestimated the capacity of a Murphy show to get several actors in.

I mentioned early on that four acting noms has been the floor for Murphy shows in limited and that was when he first entered with AHS, with the trend in recent years being six noms for (nominated) shows. Had Hollywood been received just better Mantello and/or Lupone could have also happened. Regardless, there is a consistency in the amount of acting branch support here.

[Pandamonium Joined: Jan 17th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1203578324

Voted for Apple TV+. I’m sure many here who follow tv closely have watched their shows and maybe enjoyed some, but the general public at large are not watching their programming. Rather, not watching their programming enough to justify the $1 billion-ballooning-to-$6 billion dollar price tag commitment for their original content. Reports of $15 million per ep. for shows like TMS and See are apparently well above where other ‘prestige’ shows like The Crown are at. A Spike Jonze directed Beastie Boys doc premiering to a whimper. Add on top of that a whole host of other problems (branding, lack of licensed content, etc.) being contributors to their dismal performance. We shall see how they perform at the Emmys since they’re throwing a lot of money into their campaign (which if the Democratic primary race has shown us anything, billionaires throwing money into their campaigns doesn’t buy votes). We’re talking about a streaming provider touted as the next coming of Netflix compared to singular shows, hence why it was an easy decision for me to make.

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#1203570768

Riley Chow wrote:

The mothers were more central than their sons?

Not my argument. Their characters were more central to the storyline/acting opposite of the mains (leads) who are usually more secure in their acting nominations, as I state.

So like in my Qualley example, Reinking was present and in more impactful scenes opposite the mains/leads of Verdon (Williams) and Fosse (Rockwell). Her story arc was more centered on the main storyline of the series than Paddy’s (Butz) was. That’s why someone like Qualley who was ranked in the late teens or thereabout, a relative unknown at the time of her nomination could get in over 2x Tony winner Butz who was higher in the GD odds at like six. Because viewers just see more of her and they saw more of her character opposite the lead in the more emotionally resonant scenes.

So for WTSU, it’s not hard to imagine after the fact that if voters really resonated with the leads/main storyline (CP5) of the show voters would check off their relatives. That is my argument for why I would have Abdul-Mateen over Adepo and Gossett Jr. The latter has a career far exceeding where Abdul-Mateen’s is of course, but Cal is more central to the show by proxy of his character being in the more impactful/emotionally resonant scenes of the show opposite Angela than Will is.

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#1203570388

jacob121 wrote:

I think this is fair – but, conversely, the same can be said about the Hollywood supporting actors and Hollywood is fighting to get a spot in the series lineup so not sure why multiple actors from that show (which many are seemingly predicting) are more likely than multiple actors from Watchmen.

Could be totally wrong, of course, but seems weird to me that I seem to be so alone on this limb considering most people have Watchmen in #1 or #2 for series.

Because there is more overt acting in Hollywood, which voters often fall for over more subtle performances and Murphy’s shows have been adept in Limited series in getting the actors of his shows acting nominations.

For as maligned as that show was by critics, it still managed to secure a nomination at minor critics group such as getting a nod at the HCA Midseason awards for New Drama and was second (6) in total nominations to Schitt’s Creek (7) for GALECA’s Dorian TV Awards securing acting noms for Pope, Lupone, Mantello and Parsons in spite of those acting categories having drama/comedy/limited combined. This is on top of that awards body having a more restricting nominating process by only being allowed to list their t-3 in each category.