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September 21, 2019 at 1:53 pm #1203091146
I’ve been reading random publications’ Emmy winner predictions online… they are starting to make me believe that…
1) Sterling K Brown will win again. I have a feeling that a lot of voters know of “Pose” but do not watch it. I fear for Billy Porter.
2) Jodie Comer might actually surprise and beat Sandra Oh. If they split the vote, Emilia seems to have the most support to garner a win next.
ReplySeptember 21, 2019 at 11:31 am #1203090861So far I would say…
1) Brad Pitt – Once Upon…
2) William Dafoe – The Lighthouse (I mean… if he got in last year!)
3) Tom Hanks – It’s A Beautiful Day… (mark my words: He won’t miss out again. It’s been too long since he’s been last nominated)
4) Sterling K. Brown – Waves (Industry loves him… as long as the movie delivers)
5) Alan Alda – Marriage Story (one of the few actual supporting roles to get in. I think the film will get all 4 acting noms).
—— – – – – –
Bubbling Under…
6) John Lithgow – Bombshell (this movie hasn’t been seen yet, but on paper the role is great and he would be an Oscar comeback story).
7) Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy (Movie got mild to good reviews, but his were great. Have to wait and see how the film performs with critic groups and box office. If it’s a hit, he could get in.)
ReplySeptember 20, 2019 at 6:28 pm #1203089939I’m thinking Best New Artist will look like…
Billie Eilish (Pop/Alternative)
Lil Nas X (Hip-Hop)
Lizzo (R&B/Pop/Hip-Hop)
Rosalía (Latin/Pop/Urban)
Maggie Rogers (Pop/Americana)
Lewis Capaldi (Pop)
Morgan Wallen (Country)
Megan Thee Stallion (Hip-Hop)
I can also see a situation where Lil Nas X misses out on a Best New Artist nomination since he didn’t release a full album as well as Lewis Capaldi missing out, due to voters not being aware of the rest of his album besides his lead single.
I can see DaBaby making it in over Lil Nas X. I feel that Megan will make it in over City Girls though (even though both have about 2 big hits each).
Also, Lewis could miss out in favor of a Rock contender not on anyone’s radar. The Blue Ribbon Panel will want to be inclusive as possible to all the genres since there are 8 nominees.
I’m pretty confident at this point that Rosalía (as long as she’s eligible and on the ballot) will get nominated! We haven’t had a foreign/world music nominee in a VERY long time… not since maybe Andrea Bocelli perhaps????
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 10:40 am #1203086820Her label is persistent about labeling Lizzo a “rapper.” Wouldn’t submitting her to Pop go against that? She’s nominated for Album of the Year at the BET Hip Hop Awards, just like Bey/Jay-Z last year. I don’t see her going Rap, so Urban Contemporary is the most logical choice.
…and Black Eyed Peas’ label was persistent on labeling them “rappers” too, yet they’ve won a Pop Vocal Album Grammy. Plus Lizzo labels herself “pop” in the new Grammy Contenders issue of Billboard Magazine.
Once again, I think Lizzo SHOULD submit to Urban Contemporary Album (where she would win), but I actually think it would have a decent shot at winning in Pop Vocal Album as well… even up against Billie Eilish, since Lizzo is a more mature, established artist.
Either way, I do expect her label to submit SOMETHING to the R&B field wherever her album ends up being placed.
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 1:21 am #1203086117I can see Lewis Capaldi going the Ed Sheeran route when he first came out… score either a single SOTY nom or an additional one in New Artist, but lose both. Then if he proves to have another hit/album in him, they’ll give him a Grammy. But not till then.
I definitely think Tyler would get in AOTY over the likes of Meek Mill or 21 Savage (who have no chance). I just have a feeling that Tyler’s album was still not big enough to score a nom in the General Field. No hip-hop album is this year.
If you look back at the last 10 years, all of the Rap albums that have been nominated in AOTY were by mainstream artists and had huge sales. Had IGOR even broken 300,000 copies? …then again voters might just consider the album “urban contemporary” and nominate it as a critically backed album just like they did Dirty Computer last year. IGOR definitely can’t compare in popularity to Drake, Cardi B and The Black Panther in terms of hip-hop albums that scored AOTY noms last year. We’ll see I guess.
ReplySeptember 18, 2019 at 10:50 am #1203084636Outside of the Best New Artist category, I don’t think we’re going to have any obscure/little-known artists nominated in the General Field. It hasn’t been THAT weak of a year in music.
The least popular (or mainstream) artist that might get nominated would be Gary Clark, Jr… but he’s already a former Grammy winner and not too dissimilar to Brandi Carlile.
I’m currently predicting ZERO hip-hop albums make the cut for Album of the Year (unless you count Lizzo as hip-hop). This wasn’t a year for rap music and I think the Blue Ribbon Panel will reflect that. A ton of people are predicting Tyler, The Creator for an AOTY nom, but I just can’t see it. He’s only previously been nominated for a single Grammy, so there’s nothing to indicate to me that the Grammys would all of the sudden go for him in such a big way.
ReplySeptember 17, 2019 at 6:21 pm #1203083330If Sandra doesn’t win (prob due to vote-splitting), then I want to see Mandy win!
ReplySeptember 17, 2019 at 12:19 pm #1203082748Lizzo is a lock for Urban Contemporary album. Unless she’s in Pop Vocal Album.
My thoughts exactly. We really don’t know what her label is going to do. They SHOULD submit her album in Urban, but I could see them sending it to Pop.
ReplySeptember 16, 2019 at 10:48 am #1203080398With how unpredictable these categories have been the past couple of years, it’s safe to say that there are zero locks or anything close to it.
I do think the following artists will be recognized somewhere in the R&B genre with at least one nom (even though none are a sure thing):
Khalid (maybe R&B Song)
Kehlani (maybe performance or album)
Solange (maybe album)
PJ Morton (maybe traditional)
Raphael Saadiq (album)
Anderson .Paak (Performance)
H.E.R. (Performance)Maybe:
Lizzo (depending on submissions)
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Mariah Carey (if they feel like rewarding a veteran)
Ella Mai (depends on if they remember)
Daniel Caesar (if they remember bc it came and went fast)
Fantasia (if they consider it urban enough… in interviews she’s calling her new album rock/funk)
Beyoncé (if they aren’t sick of her)
Chris Brown (if they are willing to go for a more popular/contemporary hip-hip leaning sound)
Summer Walker/Ari Lennox/Jamilla (depends on which new R&B artist they feel like embracing)September 12, 2019 at 9:23 am #1203071086Harriet is not going to gross 700M WW lol Ervio’s personal reviews arent even that strong. Just let it go.
No and I never expected it to make THAT kind of money. But say the biopic ends up being a hit and makes about $40 to $50 mill at the Box Office. That’s enough for it to factor into the Oscar race in a big way.
I’m not going to “let it go” and neither should you. It’s early days in this race. I’m not saying Erivo is definitely going to be nominated, I’m just saying it’s too early to write her off for what is clearly an Oscar-bait role and not to ignore other factors that could effect the Oscar race. But clearly you already know who the 5 nominees will end up being somehow, so congrats to you and your crystal ball.
And just a reminder… Harriet is at 65 on Metacritic, Judy is at 66 and Bohemian Rhapsody ended up at a 49, so… anything can happen.
September 12, 2019 at 12:49 am #1203070513I feel like it’s important to wait for some of these movies to be released and watch how their reactions play out from the general public, box office and additional critics.
Cynthia Erivo might be underestimated right now because her film received mild reviews (most complaints being that her film goes the typical boring biopic route). But what if the box office becomes huge for Harriet? What if a narrative is promoted about the legend never having a movie about her until now and that everyone must go see it? What if Oprah gets involved??? Campaigning and advertising could go a long way… and if it does… the reviews won’t matter as much. Ask last year’s 4-time Oscar-winning biopic film Bohemian Rhapsody.
September 11, 2019 at 2:35 pm #1203069872I think this is probably her strongest shot at scoring a general field nom (album of the year), but it’s hard to see a win for her in the near future.
I do however think that if she is able to score at least one Grammy nom this year, she will be invited to perform on the telecast (for the first time??? …I think).
ReplySeptember 11, 2019 at 11:11 am #1203069529I do think that (some of) the critics will back Antonio Banderas and his performance this year, so hopefully that will help him on his journey towards his first Oscar nomination.
But yes… the performance isn’t a “loud” one, so he will need the help/support.
September 11, 2019 at 11:01 am #1203069509Beyoncé deserves a maximum of no more than 2 Grammy nominations this year.
Long-Form Music Video: Homecoming
And then MAYBE R&B Performance (or Traditional) for “Before I Let Go.”
Look, I love Beyoncé, but despite technically releasing 2 projects this year, she really didn’t have a huge impact on today’s music scene and in no way deserves multiple noms or any recognition in the General Field.
ReplySeptember 11, 2019 at 8:48 am #1203069230Harriet starts with a score of 70 on Metacritic based on 5 reviews. All technically positive so far and almost all giving praised mention to Erivo’s performance. Maybe she can still pull off a nom?
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