[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204743102

I’m surprised people are so skeptical of J.K. Simmons getting a nomination, coattail nominations happen all the time in the supporting categories. If Nicole Kidman is winning in lead, or even just the runner up, he could absolutely come along for the ride.

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[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204743087

Cocastique wrote:

I don’t understand why some of y’all are watching movies for the actors’ performances. Like, why watch a film you know you will hate just to come here and say « yeah [insert actor’s name] was fabulous however this is the worst film I’ve ever seen ».

The art of filmmaking is different from the art of acting, I personally appreciate them in different ways. Obviously a great movie that has great performances will stand above a meh movie with great performances, but I’ll watch a movie I’ve heard mixed things about if it seems like there’s at least one excellent performance in it.

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[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204739229

alittle03 wrote:

Rachel Zegler is a white Latina. She has even called herself this multiple times.

You are absolutely right, I hadn’t read her interviews where she said that until now.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204739191

Really don’t see why people think there’s no possible way this category will have all white nominees, unfortunately that has happened many times recently. I really don’t see voters consciously picking women of color just because they’re women of color, and even if they were it’s like people forget Rachel Zegler is a person of color. She’s probably more likely then Jennifer Hudson, and she’s definitely more likely than Tessa Thompson.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204739001

agnusz wrote:

I like Cher but her win was influenced by Weinstein or so. Glenn Close was phenomenal in “Fatal Attraction”, and she was robbed brutally. Same happened to Ellen Burstyn that was humiliated by Julia Roberts win 👀

Neither Moonstruck or Erin Brockovich were Weinstein productions and he didn’t have a hand in the wins of Cher or Julia Roberts. Glenn Close was never winning for Fatal Attraction, Sally Kirkland was the likely runner up with Holly Hunter likely third.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204737451

FilmRoyalty wrote:

I feel like I’ve misread what you’re saying. What about Meryl Streep, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, Jodie Foster, Jessica Lange, Glenda Jackson, and Hilary Swank?

lipabridgerstwigs wrote:

I think they’re saying it’ll be three straight years of previous winners winning.

That is what I was saying, it wasn’t entirely clear in my original post so thank you!

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204737290

Following Renée Zellweger and Frances McDormand’s wins, if Olivia Colman or Nicole Kidman win this year it will be the first time since 1967-1969 that Best Actress has gone to an actress who already had an acting Oscar three years in a row. Back then it was Elizabeth Taylor in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, Katharine Hepburn in Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, and Hepburn again in The Lion in Winter who tied with Barbara Streisand in Funny Girl.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204737106

Vicki Leekx wrote:

I still find it interesting that Omar Sharif was ignored for Doctor Zhivago. He won the Globe and the movie was a hit. I didn’t particularly like Julie Christie’s performance in the movie but she was ignored too. Interestingly the supporting roles gained traction, Courtenay was nominated but Chaplin wasn’t…I find it a shame that especially Sharif was snubbed for such an affecting and emotional performance.

She did win Best Actress for Darling that year.

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[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204734757

Reminder that Amy Adams in Arrival was nominated by SAG, Globes, BAFTA, and CC. Just because she didn’t get the Oscar nomination doesn’t mean she went unrecognized by the awards circuit.

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[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204734219

Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men
Steve Carell, Little Miss Sunshine
Emory Cohen, Brooklyn
Steve Coogan, Philomena
Matt Damon, True Grit
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Greg Kinnear, Little Miss Sunshine
Miles Teller, Whiplash
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Han Ye-ri, Minari

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[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204730399

rue wrote:

Is CC a complete toss-up at this point? Who do y’all have winning there?

I don’t think they’ll care about Kidman’s Globe win or the SAG nominations and they’ll give it to Kristen Stewart, her momentum is obviously slipping but she was considered the front runner for so long that I think she’s still winning CC. I have Colman second and Kidman third. Chastain, Gaga, or Haim winning seems very unlikely.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204727646

Kent Adams wrote:

I have Chastain, Colman, Kidman, and Stewart for the 4, but like you I’m stuck between Haim and Zegler for the the 5th spot. The fan in me wants to predict Haim, but the realist in me thinks Zegler is buzzier, her film is going to have more nominations than LP, she’s performing in a musical, they LOVE musical performances. Haim is one of the critic darlings this year for sure, but I’m not confident that will matter with Academy Voters.

I’m having a hard time taking out Haim but I also think it might be the stan in me, Haim would make my lineup while Zegler wouldn’t (I liked her performance a lot just not enough to put her in my top five). I think it’s going to come down to how much respect Haim’s performance elicits beyond the film, and how big voters go on West Side Story.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204727618

Buzz from critics definitely matters, but I think Caitriona Balfe and Aunjanue Ellis are showing that we gave them too much stock in this particular category. Almost everyone here, myself included, looked at Ellis and her critical over performance and assumed that she was a lock and potentially win competitive, and that Balfe’s under performance meant that she was out of the top three and could even miss the lineup entirely. After SAG nominations I think it’s safe to say Ellis is out of the top three and was never win competitive and that Balfe is top three (though definitely not win competitive).

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[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204727575

I think Colman is going to be a surprise omission. She could obviously make it in but I think that one of the consensus four of Chastain/Colman/Kidman/Gaga will miss, and with how divisive The Lost Daughter seems to be I think she could get pushed out. I think Stewart is in fourth, but I can’t decide between Alana Haim and Rachel Zegler for the final spot. Haim got the Critics Choice nom over Zegler, but Zegler won the Globe over Haim. There generally seems to be more hype around Haim’s performance, but West Side Story as a whole seems buzzier than Licorice Pizza. I have a feeling I’m going to be going back and forth between them until we get nominations.

[AwardsBait3818 Joined: Dec 3rd, 2015 Topics: 5 Posts: 1230 View Predictions]

#1204723260

The Big Short, The Favourite, Jackie, Spencer, Wild, and Zero Dark Thirty are favorites of mine from the past few years. The term biopic requires some nuance, but all of these films utilized real life people to tell a story and could therefore be considered a biopic. I think the reason we get so many of these types of films is because 1. Fans of the subjects are likely to spend money to see them and 2. Awards shows love seeing actors in these types of films so studios put up the money and actors sign up so they have a shot at an Oscar.

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