Eden
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August 4, 2020 at 3:43 am #1203625687
My numbers were just an example, but my thinking is that no matter how many voters each of the six nominees receive, Cox and Strong will be at the top, and therefore, one of them will win.
I’m not giving weight to any numbers we mentioned, just wanted to comment on your post suggesting a third option would get the same (or similar) percentage with the Succession actors. Can’t agree with this since no other nominee seems to have broader support. Carell’s show did surprisingly good with its acting nominees, but the support ends here. Not to mention that even the acting branch loved Succession more. The Morning Show’s base couldn’t even get it to a Series nomination.
My point was that Cox and Strong can overcome vote-splitting because of weaker support for the other four nominees.
August 4, 2020 at 1:53 am #1203625646What actually puts him in the upset position for me is that nobody is choosing between The Morning Show and Succession. Nobody is going to have a tough time choosing between Carell and Strong. People voting Strong would probably rank Carell last and people who are enamoured with The Morning Show are probably the least likely to be fans of Succession. That is the pitfall of the plurality vote. Vote-splits cater to a minority.
Except no one is actually ranking them, right? Not on the ballot, at least. The way I see it, considering how well Succession did, it’s either Cox or Strong even with vote-splitting. Say both get a certain percentage of the votes. As both of them are the biggest (and maybe only) frontrunners in the category, I don’t see a third option coming closely behind them. For example, each gets around 30% of the votes. Technically, we can get a different winner, but I doubt Porter or Carell or someone else gets more than 30% since the remaining 40% would be split between the other four.
Which sounds crazy, I know, but it’s the slate of nominees that would lead to this. The thing is to find out who prevails – Cox or Strong. Even if they actually get hurt by vote-splitting, I would go with Porter or even Brown over Carell.
July 30, 2020 at 7:48 am #1203614918The male Succession actors dominating the lead and supporting categories suggests possible vote-splitting, but in that scenario there isn’t a likely contender to emerge. Who benefits?
July 30, 2020 at 5:36 am #1203614764Considering The Handmaid’s Tale bombing, Better Call Saul losing steam and Ozark unable to get Pelphrey, I believe Smith-Cameron was ninth.
ReplyJuly 29, 2020 at 12:45 pm #1203612971I’ll go out on a limb and say Seehorn wins here.
By the way, did voting begin?
ReplyJuly 29, 2020 at 2:22 am #1203611582My first impression is that Drama Actress is between Linney and Colman. It seems like voters didn’t see Ozark‘s latest season, but they managed to get Linney nominated over Kidman, Moss and Davis. Colman, on the other hand, is very disliked on these forums, which makes me consider her a threat.
Before yesterday, I was thinking either Cox or Strong are winning and in an event of vote-splitting, I was wishfully hoping for Odenkirk, since Porter already won, Brown is done here and I don’t see Bateman ever winning. But now, with Odenkirk snubbed, I’m not sure who benefits if we indeed get vote-splitting between the Succession actors.
July 29, 2020 at 1:39 am #1203611521Initial Predictions
Watchmen
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Regina King
Paul Mescal
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Jean Smart
Little Fires Everywhere
WatchmenJuly 28, 2020 at 3:00 pm #1203610105I see that the new narrative around here is that voters haven’t actually seen Succession, but still voted for nine actors. People really go the extra mile to say something against a show.
July 28, 2020 at 2:56 pm #1203610071It was obvious it would turn out this way, but as quoted in the previous comment, the show is indeed Simon’s most accessible project. The way I see it, HBO already had a major limited series player and didn’t bother campaigning this one. I’m not saying that it would’ve gotten a number of nominations if Watchmen stayed in drama or wasn’t eligible at all, but it would’ve definitely been in consideration for HBO’s limited series push.
ReplyJuly 28, 2020 at 2:44 pm #1203609996I think even fans of Ozark will agree with this, the show getting TWO cinematography nominations is ridiculous.
July 28, 2020 at 12:16 pm #1203609187This is the gloating thread. You earned it. (Felt a bit off typing that as I stare at your profile picture though.)
I’ll admit that I was a bit biased towards Seehorn, but for the first time she actually had buzz, a spring season and then a TCA nomination. But I didn’t get too carried away, which is why I only had her seventh.
I forgot to mention before the surprises I predicted:
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Yvonne Orji
Jeffrey Wright
Paul Mescal
Abdul-Mateen II/Gossett Jr.
Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings
Jimmy Kimmel Live!July 28, 2020 at 11:49 am #1203609080Carell was nominated so our theory of first/last season winners isn’t over!
July 28, 2020 at 10:16 am #1203608549Not to gloat, but I’ve been saying that Mbatha-Raw is a GD bubble and that McTeer won’t make it.
ReplyJuly 28, 2020 at 10:03 am #1203608453The argument that The Handmaid’s Tale managed to get a bunch of nominations for three episodes was ridiculous. As if voters knew they were voting for only three episodes. The show was airing ineligible episodes during voting period and they had effect on the nominations.
As I’ve said before, it aired a year ago and it is competing now for the first time without airing new episodes while voting is underway, which led to an underperformance. But no one would listen.
July 28, 2020 at 9:37 am #1203608232I quite accidentally predicted a Corden snub in favor of Kimmel for Variety Talk Series and got 5/5 in the category. Honestly, the 100/1 odds on Kimmel were irresistible, lol. Do not overthink it is the point, I guess.
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