Picture 1. Nomadland 2. Chicago 7 3. Judas and the Black Messiah 4. The Father 5. Soul 6. Mank 7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 8. Promising Young Woman 9. Minari 10. One Night in Miami Next-up: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Sound of Metal, Another Round Director 1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland 2. David Fincher, Mank 3. Florian Zeller, The Father 4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods 5. Aaron Sorkin, Chicago 7 Next-up: Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, Shaka King, Paul Greengrass, Thomas Vinterberg I have a hard time picturing Mank falling out of contention in BP. Although I agree it’s sliding slowly downwards, I think it will settle pretty comfortably between 4th and 7th. I still struggle to see it missing out on 8-10 other nominations in a pretty thin year where it is a Netflix-backed piece about the industry from an esteemed director. I know it’s a cynical piece and quite divisive, but I think it’ll pick up industry and guild support all the same. I think only 3 films are safe though – Nomadland, Chicago 7 and The Father. There’s scenarios where any of the rest miss out imo, through a lack of passion (Ma Rainey, Mank, Miami), a lack of campaigning or divisiveness (Minari, Judas, Soul with anti-animation bias, PYW). I think Fincher is safe in Director too, but falls further behind Zhao almost daily. 3-5 I change my mind about whenever I think about it. I think The Father will do strongly across the board and Zeller’s direction is by all accounts impressive. Lee I think has enough esteem and respect in the industry to get in. Sorkin has the ring of that customary nom that will rile everyone on nomination morning, which is unscientific but sound reasoning for me to think he might make it.
If Spike Lee gets a Director nod for Da 5 Bloods than it’ll also get a Best Picture nomination.
– Hillbilly Oscargy 
– Mamma Mia 3 : Oscar four four How Can I Resist You? 
– The Murderous Mrs. Maisel 
– Pfexit – When Your Film Fails to DAYliver
