wilfredpickles
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May 16, 2022 at 4:38 pm #1204954084
THE DROPOUT (3) – Series, Seyfried, Andrews
I think other people have already said this, but Macy also seems likely regardless of whether the show makes the cut in Limited Series. I get that some people don’t like his performance but he randomly got nominated for Shameless again last year right? Emmy voters clearly like him and the category isn’t that deep.
ReplyMay 11, 2022 at 1:05 am #1204948755If Mr Robot, a show that aired on a network the Emmys hadn’t cared about since Monk, was able to make the cut in Series based on its status as the buzzy new show of the season, then Severance should be fine given it’s the main drama push of a huge network that we know voters watch.
ReplyMay 7, 2022 at 3:02 pm #1204945574The last two years have bucked the trend because of shows being ineligible and two 7/7 sweeps, but for a while under this system we were only seeing about 3 repeat winners a year across the main and guest acting categories, writing, and directing (and that’s combining Comedy, Drama, and Limited).
I do wonder whether Comedy alone will have an unusually high number of repeats this year, since cases like Julia Garner’s second win indicate to me that voters can easily default to a past winner in a field where support is spread between half or more of the nominees as opposed to, say, a top 2 or 3 that are usually clear by final voting.
ReplyMay 2, 2022 at 4:09 pm #120494018210 episodes into Abbott Elementary and I’m really enjoying it, but I think its best shot at the Emmys is a performance similar to Atlanta season 1, i.e. nominations for the creator/star wherever they’re eligible, and then maybe Series and Casting (Atlanta also got a second Writing nod but was helped by the category being barren that year). Quinta Brunson could get the momentum to win somewhere but it’s too early to say, especially until Hacks premieres.
May 2, 2022 at 12:51 am #1204939424Finished the final episodes, strangely enough the finale works better for me in practice compared to simply reading a plot summary on Wikipedia or IMDb (sounds obvious I know but given the mixed reaction I was curious how people writing recaps were making it sound and looked it up). I don’t think it was perfect and I understand why it might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but as far as finales go it definitely doesn’t deserve to be in the same conversation as Killing Eve for instance.
Overall I thought the writing for both parts of season 4 was bit hit and miss (too much focus on subplots that didn’t always pay off), the actors and directing were great as always though. I’m very curious to see how they submit in the latter category and whether Jason Bateman could be win competitive again, all those jokes about the show’s colour palette in the earlier seasons made it easy to underrate his skill behind the camera.
I’m conflicted about whether or not to root for a Julia Garner threepeat since I love Snook and Jung as well. She would deserve it if she won again though. Fingers crossed for Laura Linney in Drama Actress regardless!
ReplyApril 30, 2022 at 5:23 am #1204937856I agree, Dopesick makes sense as the Series winner unless nominations massively shake up the field. It seems more in line with things like Chernobyl and Watchmen than White Lotus does, plus Keaton swept the winter awards as other people mentioned so there’s another fairly likely above the line win.
ReplyApril 25, 2022 at 8:31 pm #1204932285I agree 3/10 episodes being standalone (that we know of) is excessive. I enjoyed Three Slaps and Big Payback but would’ve been disappointed if we’d had to wait years for another season after this.
It actually reminds me of how one of my only issues with Robbin’ Season was how split up the cast felt; Donald Glover only ended up appearing in like 7/11 episodes and Zazie Beetz was actually guest eligible too.
ReplyApril 25, 2022 at 3:59 pm #1204931772Donald Glover could be the Bob Odenkirk of this year and miss for both of Anthony Anderson and Nicholas Hoult.
Just got caught up on Atlanta S3 and it definitely feels like the tech branches, writers and directors will prioritise the show more than the actors this time around. The main cast are still excellent but the buzziest episodes so far have been the anthology ones. I’d be surprised if it repeated its S2 acting haul of Glover/Henry/Beetz and a guest.
ReplyApril 20, 2022 at 6:09 pm #1204925407The difference between these cases and JLD’s is that she actually was the most deserving contender in each field she competed in.
These forums have struggled to accept that some people simply don’t care for Veep as long as I’ve been on here, and statements like this coming up frequently make me dig my heels in further.
Sure, for her last 2 wins JLD didn’t have much as competition from memory, and it made sense for her to win when the show was winning Series, but it should be clear how 6 in a row is boring and frustrating for the people who don’t think her performance was the best.
ReplyApril 19, 2022 at 8:10 pm #1204924333This is a really random one (that I know I’ve mentioned bothers me in other threads) but the threepeat for Marvelous Mrs Maisel in Music Supervision was so unnecessary and boring. The category had only existed for a year before it started dominating. It’s quite a competitive category every year full of deserving winners for such an underrated aspect of TV but you wouldn’t know from looking at its history.
ReplyApril 13, 2022 at 8:09 pm #1204916138Is Colman Domingo guest eligible? I could’ve sworn that while watching Euphoria S2 I made a mental note that he’d crossed the 50% or more threshold and thought it was a shame.
ReplyMarch 28, 2022 at 7:31 pm #1204887051The Windshield Wiper!!
It’s been a long time since I was this happy to have gotten an Oscars prediction wrong. I know these categories are quite niche but seriously, what a true hidden gem. Glad the Academy awarded something a bit different in Animated Short
ReplyMarch 20, 2022 at 10:00 pm #1204863538When was the last time a movie only won Director???
I think The Graduate is the only film that’s ever done it. I’m so confused by POTD after this weekend (and to a lesser extent by Dune, since we still have the 70ish year streak of films without Director noms being capped at 4 Oscar wins).
March 20, 2022 at 2:17 am #1204860828The idea that CODA will likely win BP with just 3 nominations still seems very strange, but I’m not going to predict against a SAG+PGA winner. I loved both it and POTD so will be happy with either as a winner, and if CODA does pull it off, I’ll be very curious to see what other kind of stats busting winners we could see in the coming years. It’ll be the end of an era for how a lot of people do their predictions.
March 11, 2022 at 9:58 pm #1204842123Are you the user who posts their commentary and opinions on the shorts every year? Because if you are I wanna thank you so much haha, you’ve helped me a lot! And if you are not still thank you for giving your opinion because it helps me understand how the categories may go, much love you!
Thank you! I’ve actually only been covering the shorts in depth since last year. I managed to predict 3/3 at the 92nd Oscars based purely on pundits and without seeing any of the films, which felt a bit strange, so since then I’ve wanted to see if actually watching as many as I can helps at all (TBD so far – only got 2/3 last year, missing Doc which in my opinion that was a pretty tight three-way race, I wish I’d stuck with my gut/personal preference and picked Colette). Hopefully sharing my thoughts on them helps other users’ predictions too.
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