Forum Replies Created
April 19, 2021 at 4:56 am #1204208844
Speaking of Marcia, check out this cool new article commemorating the 20th anniversary of her unprecedented win. She also throws some shade at a certain Dame lol:
She showed her class a few days later by apologising to Dench although I don’t think she needed to. Love both those actresses.
I wonder, if Dench was annoyed, what was it about? Probably not her own loss so soon after her first win, maybe she wanted fellow Brit Julie Walters to win.April 19, 2021 at 4:50 am #1204208834
Thanks for the advice Eddy Q and Marcus H. I think I’m going to go with Ma Rainey in Costumes even if it doesn’t make sense to me but just based on the amazing winning streak it’s had.
I might go out on a limb for Pinocchio though, mainly because I have Davis winning and if I go for Ma Rainey in Makeup then it will be winning 4 out of 5 awards which…yeah, I just don’t buy it.
Editing is still baffling me but I’m sticking with Sound of Metal just because I can’t imagine Trial winning ONLY editing, that’s such a rare thing.
I do wonder if I’m being too casual with Tenet in Visual Effects though. It makes logical sense but it’s a bit of a boring winner to me when Love + Monsters is right there. But I’ve been burned by going with my favourite in this category before, boring tends to go the distance here.April 19, 2021 at 12:12 am #1204208630
Lol exactly! Nomadland did have great cinematography if you look into it, but I’m afraid many regular voters voted because of the reason you said.
I’m really starting to panic about Costume Design and Makeup and Hair.
What is the big deal about Ma Rainey? There isn’t a single costume change in the whole film and Oscars like the most of things. I want to change to Emma. or possibly something else but Ma Rainey just keeps winning everything! Is there something I’m missing?
As for Makeup, I’m just hoping Ma Rainey splits will Hillbilly Elegy because they both have similar attributes as nominees and that this allows Pinocchio to come in and take it. Does this line of thinking have any merit to it?
Seriously, someone help me 😂April 19, 2021 at 12:01 am #1204208611
Also, can we just take a moment and acknowledge what a player Marcia Gay Harden has been? She won an Oscar and was nominated for another one without ever making the Golden Globe/SAG/BAFTA lineups. Like doing it once is one thing, but doing it twice? She’s good.
She’s an excellent actress and should have been nominated for The Mist as well! 🙂
She is an absolute treasure and doesn’t turn up in enough things these days unfortunately.
Just happened to watch Mystic River for the first time the other day and she easily gave the best performance in that film. Robbins was ok but Penn overacted and I can see why people were disappointed he beat Bill Murray.April 18, 2021 at 1:38 pm #1204207842
Which scenario is more likely in your opinion?
Somebody upsets Youn for best supporting actress
Day, Kirby, McDormand wins over Mulligan, Davis?
I honestly can’t see someone upsetting Youn so it would have to be the latter option.
But of those three, I think McDormand stands the best chance.April 18, 2021 at 1:27 pm #1204207820
I’m not saying that Andra Day doesn’t have a chance of winning (I don’t even think I can say Kirby doesn’t have a chance of winning, miniscule as it may be) but she has such a hill to climb compared to the others.
1) No actress has won the Oscar without a corresponding SAG nomination.
2) No actress has won the Oscar with just a Globe win since the 4 major precursors have been in play.
3) Actresses who are the only nominee for their films tend to sweep.
I know it’s a close year and she fits the mold of an Oscar winning performance but she just has too many hurdles I think.
If she did win though…THAT would be a monumental victory. Up there with Marcia Gay HardensApril 18, 2021 at 12:39 pm #1204207741
I’m going with Davis in the end. It’s better to prepare for my least preferable scenario than to be disappointed later on. She also makes a lot of sense as the SAG-winner. Not to mention she’s a heavy-campaigner.
Kirby is obviously out. Day’s GG win feels like ages ago, and she is in a critically panned film. It would be too soon for McDormand, and the voters can reward her by voting on Nomadland. And Mulligan was literally screwed over by her campaign crew (wrong GG category submission) and the BAFTA jury. I wish she’d have the visibility to take this, but I’m kind of done hoping.
This captures so many of my feelings about this category right now. Davis feels like the choice of least resistance.April 17, 2021 at 1:52 pm #1204206007
I feel lonely in the Andra Day prediction train.
Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen have just boarded by the sound of their recent article so you’re definitely not alone. Andra Day is this year’s wildcard and definitely deserving of people’s prediction.
It’s not feeling particularly crowded on the Viola train tbh but I’m here to stayApril 14, 2021 at 5:47 am #1204199931
Honestly the argument of Best Actor and Best Actress winning without a Best Picture nomination was never that compelling to me since Viola Davis is a thespian that would win no matter what. What’s concerning to me however is Ma Rainey going 4/5 which honors the film’s strengths moreso than Davis and I cannot see that happening for a film that missed Picture and Screenplay. Winning 2 above the line categories and 2 techs, potentially surpassing Nomadland’s awards or even tying with its award count is not feasible to me.
Ma Rainey seems strong in costuming but the Hair and Makeup at the Oscar is notorious for going with crazy choices and Ma Rainey seems too normal for them. I’ve got Pinocchio to spoil there.
I feel at most Ma Rainey will win 2 or 3 but I think anyone worrying about it getting all 4 shouldn’t be, it isn’t a compelling enough reason not to vote for Davis if that’s what you want to do.April 13, 2021 at 10:45 am #1204198267
Swinton wasn’t winning a third Oscar or even a second. She was also the only one in a Best Picture nominee when there’s two here
I guess part of it is how impressed I was that Frances won Bafta the other night. Brits aren’t exactly slow to vote for their own and they had ample opportunity in that category. Even with Frances being in a best picture nominee, they shouldn’t have been so eager to award her again so soon but they did it.
I certainly wouldn’t put any money on my prediction and I don’t blame people for leaning towards Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis or Andra Day but I feel people aren’t giving Frances enough credit for her Bafta win.April 13, 2021 at 10:25 am #1204198215
I think I’ve made my final switch in this category and I’m going with Frances. It’s more a compromise than a prediction really, she just seems the least risky to me.
I wanted to buy into Andra Day due to the stat that 1 of the 2 Globe winners has won the Best Actress Oscar as far back as Halle Berry but there just hasn’t been a year like this in Best Actress before.
And those Globe winners who went on to win their Oscars? They ALL managed to pick up 1 more precursor along the way. Andra Day hasn’t. She could have taken Critics Choice and she didn’t even make Bafta longlist.
To find anything even close to this craziness you have to look at the supporting actor/actress races where James Coburn, Marcia Gay Harden and Tilda Swinton won.
Coburn and Harden won despite winning no precursors but that stat only helps Vanessa Kirby who just lost on her home turf to an American who already won 3 years ago. So she’s out for me.
Meanwhile Swinton won nothing, picked up Bafta then took home the Oscar which would be Frances’ path too. As I said, less a prediction than a compromise in a crazy/fun race.March 30, 2021 at 2:41 pm #1204166574
The race will only be over if Amy wins at SAG.
Are you saying Andra Day would benefit from an Amy Adams win or someone else?
I really don’t think this race will be over til Oscar night, as much as we’d all like it to be for the sake of our sanity.March 30, 2021 at 2:27 pm #1204166546
Even with so much available via streaming, I still value physical blu-rays. Nothing beats having a library of films to look at on your shelf.
My next buy is definitely going to be the Bong Joon-ho collection getting released this month. I’ve only ever seen Parasite, Okja and Snowpiercer by him so I can’t wait to try Mother, The Host and, most excitingly, Memories of Murder.March 23, 2021 at 8:57 am #1204152765
Fuck, I’m REALLY tempted to predict PYW. It’s my favorite movie of the year and I’d love to see it, but I did the same with Parasite last year and got my ass burned. And yes I know Parasite still won Best Picture without PGA, but I’m specifically talking PGA and not Oscars. Fuck. Someone help me make a decision
My advice would be stick with Nomadland but if you really wanted to switch then it has to be PYW as the spoiler.
I’m dubious about Minari’s chances at PGA since it only has one producer nominated. When was the last time a film won with a single producer?
Chicago 7 not having Sorkin nominated as a producer gives me pause too. PGA tends to favour films where one of the producers is the director or at least a notable name (ex: Brad Pitt for The Big Short).