alex00g2
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DAMN. was the #1 album of the year and was more acclaimed than both Melodrama and 24k Magic, yet it lost.
Golden Hour was more acclaimed than arguably all of the nominees last year (maybe Janelle as an exception), was one of the least-selling, and it won.
Morning Phase was more acclaimed than all but one of the nominees, it sold the least, yet it won.
There’s also Raising Sand, The Suburbs, River, etc. Saying acclaim doesn’t matter is naïve – it’s not the only factor, but it is important. Plus, all of those albums you mentioned still have decent reviews. I’m not saying Gaga is not the frontrunner if she gets in, but it’s not a locked win. A young alternative singer-songwriter newcomer and a pop-star with an acclaimed project at the peak of her career both sound very Grammy-baiting to me.
While Morning Phase more acclaimed than many of the nominees that year, that might be saying more about the other albums than anything else. There were also more acclaimed albums that could of and should of made the cut (St Vincent was one).
But you have just made a good case for the safe choice winning. Pick the album(s) with no explicit tracks (perhaps just one might sneak past), no rappers, traditional instruments (remember Daft Punk going retro disco with guitars and other live instrumentation to win) and you’re got the most likely winner(s).
We might have to wait for the nominees to see who that will be, but 24K and Golden Hour were safe choices and going back a bit further there wouldn’t be too many exceptions to this rule.
What’s up with all this “veteran” bullshit? We only have three cases this decade
Perhaps you should look at the AOTY winners for the previous decade.
2000 – Santana
2001 – Steely Dan
2005 – Ray Charles (posthumous award)
2008 – Herbie Hancock
2009 – Alison Krauss & Robert Plant – Plant never won a Grammy as part of Led Zeppelin when they were at their peakEdit – was tempted to add U2 (winners in 2006) to the list, but the term “veteran” tends to refer to artists who are “overdue” and have never won before. If Bruce Springsteen releases a decent album before the deadline, I’d say he has a strong chance of nomination in a weak year.
I’m glad people are finally recognising Old Town Road as a potential nominee and with each week at #1 it is looking more likely.
Lil Nas X’s anthem, “Old Town Road” is on pace to be the #1 song in the country for the seventh week in a row. This week, Nas’ track will fend off a debut from a power collab, Ed Sheeran f/Justin Bieber’s I Don’t Care.” The week before it was a new Shawn Mendes single, and at the end of April is held its own against the queen of debut releases, Taylor Swift.
The most recent prior example of a song becoming an undeniable cultural movement is 2017’s “Despacito (Remix).”
Per the updated YTD Top 5 songs [link below], “Old Town Road” has now surpassed Ariana Grande’s “7 rings” as the biggest song of 2019 so far.
I’m not sure where the Billy Rae version of the biggest song of 2019 so far will end up. I could see them submitting it to Country, but it might end up in Pop Duo/Group and maybe ROTY. There is also the original version (rap sung?) and the Diplo remix might make it into Best Remixed Recording.
Lil Nas X has been teasing snippets of another song “Panini”, so by the time nominations voting gets under way, he might no longer be a one hit wonder.
Everything is relative. Taylor Swift is held to her own standards, and by her standards, Reputation was nothing exceptional. If another artist had Reputation sales they would’ve been nominated. Also keep in the mind that the committee simply doesn’t want her to win a 3rd time regardless of her success 2 years after she already won!
By Gaga standards, ASIB is not just the best selling album of this period so far, but it has critical acclaim (not just some MC score) but it won every single musical award that’s awarded by her peers/critics in every single award show. Her Oscar performance was probably the best in history. Even the Oscar show producer attributed some of the credit for the increased ratings to Gaga’s presence.
While Shallow was praised by some critics, ASIB didn’t make the top 50 in the aggregate critics year end list:
https://www.albumoftheyear.org/list/summary/2018/
Unlike ‘The Suburbs’ which was #2 in that list in 2010, or 21 which was #7 in 2011, RAM #4 in 2013, Morning Phase #16 in 2014, 1989 #15 in 2014 and 25 which was #18 in 2015.
ASIB could be nominated and win, but it would be more like when Mumford & Sons and Bruno won with albums with little acclaim, but they found support with the conservative tastes of some of the older Grammy voters.
Ed Sheeran
It appears that the Ed Sheeran / Justin Bieber song could be for the upcoming Angry Birds 2 movie soundtrack.
https://www.breatheheavy.com/justin-bieber-ed-sheeran-collab/
Perhaps not be a serious chart contender or Grammy contender in that case.
Edit: This appears to have been contradicted and the song is most likely not for a movie. Song will be called “I Don’t Care”. Some lyrics posted here, sounds like the usual Ed Sheeran lyrics.
https://variety.com/2019/music/news/ed-sheeran-justin-bieber-collaborate-duet-single-1203207626/
