Forum Replies Created
June 18, 2021 at 2:38 am #1204306417
I’ve seen almost everyone hyping up Will Smith in King Richard, but I’m not seeing where this confidence is coming from. This film is giving me major Just Mercy or Concussion vibes which makes me think it’l be another failed Oscar bait for him that at best gets him a SAG nom.May 29, 2021 at 9:33 pm #1204278601
Picture 29. A Hero (Amazon) = 100/1 odds Best Director 13. Asghar Farhadi for A Hero = 78/1 odds Best Original Screenplay 11. Asghar Farhadi for A Hero = 47/1 odds
A Hero is criminally low here. This film could easily win International Feature like his last 2 films and get that Foreign Director slot. Remember that A Seperation also got a screenplay nom and this could do the same. With Amazon behind the campaign I have a feeling this will be the big foreign film of this year, and one that could even get into picture and be win competitve. I’m not calling it a lock or anything, but we should just watch out.May 27, 2021 at 10:30 pm #1204275954
I think we are seriously underestimating MASS here. Bleeker Street got Trumbo and Captain Fantastic into ensemble, even though they barely showed up at the oscars. I would put it in my top 5.
Here’s my BOLD 5 for now:
1. The French Dispatch
2. In The Heights
3. Canterbury Glass
4. Don’t Look Up
6. House of GucciMay 4, 2021 at 8:32 pm #1204242992
Ralph Fiennes and Carey Mulligan in The DigApril 24, 2021 at 11:38 pm #1204220334
I’ve got this gut feeling The Father is the runner up or even the best picture winner. It’s got an 8.3 on IMDB while Nomadland has a 7.5 and Trial has a 7.8. It’s surging enormously and could very well win Actor and Adapted Screenplay. It will get many number 1-3 votes while Nomadland seems more divisive. Remember The Father wasn’t nominated at PGA, so we have never seen how it goes on a preferential ballot. It’s BAFTA loss is a non factor here as Roma won over The Favourite that won 7 BAFTA’s and it’s loss of British Film to PYW can be chalked up to it having slightly more passion in the number 1 votes, but The Father could perform better on a preferential ballot. We have been consistantly underestimating this film and maybe it’s closer than we think.April 22, 2021 at 3:39 am #1204214629
I finally was persuaded by listening to a few pundits to switch my prediction from Viola Davis to Carey Mulligan. How much of this is wishful thinking on my part – I want Mulligan to win – I don’t know. This is the hardest category to predict but several “experts” who are predicting Mulligan have convinced me that she will get enough votes to cross the finish line victorious. I sure hope so!
Was one of these pundits Tariq Khan by any chance?April 22, 2021 at 3:21 am #1204214621
Do we know if Frances McDormand will be showing up?April 19, 2021 at 10:08 pm #1204210665
BEST PICTURE: “Nomadland”
BEST DIRECTOR : Chloe Zhao – “Nomadland”
BEST ACTOR : Anthony Hopkins – “The Father”
BEST ACTRESS : Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR : Paul Raci – “Sound of Metal”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS : Youn Yuh-Jung – “Minari”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY : “Promising Young Woman”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY : “The Father”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM : “Quo Vadis Aida?”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE : “Collective”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE : “Wolfwalkers”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY : “Nomadland”
BEST EDITING : “Promising Young Woman”
BEST SOUND : “Sound of Metal”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN : “Mank”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN : “Emma”
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING : “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS : “Tenet”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE : “Minari”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG : “Speak Now”-“One Night In Miami”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT : “The Present”
BEST ANIMATED SHORT : “If Anything Happens I Love You”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT : “Hunger Ward”April 18, 2021 at 9:41 pm #1204208527
This is so funny for the international feature poll there are 37 thousand total votes compared to 13 thousand votes in Best Picture. And Quo Vadis, Aida? is taking 94% of those 37 thousand votes. Pls someone is using bots on this website.
Like it should.
It is an incredible masterpiece and would be way more deserving than Another Round.April 18, 2021 at 8:14 pm #1204208415
This poll has McDormand as the clear winner
- McDormand 34%
- Viola Davis 22%
- Vanessa Kirby 17%
- Carey Mulligan 15%
- Andra Day 10%
Is this telling of Sunday night?April 18, 2021 at 8:35 am #1204207192
This category has always been Davis vs. Mulligan – of the two I want Mulligan to win and am predicting Davis!!! This is the envelope opening I am most looking forward to finding out the name inside!!!!
Watch it be Andra Day! The Globes are more telling than we think.April 17, 2021 at 9:48 pm #1204206691
Mulligan would’ve won BAFTA without the jury. I think Davis can win with Boseman, stats are bound to be broken. Everyone says you need to win screenplay or director to even have a chance at BP when All the kings men won with only acting wins and Chicago won w/ no screenplay or director wins. I’m leaning towards Mulligan though.
I know I’m in the minority here and would love to see Mulligan win but my head is telling me that McDormand would still have won. Not only is Nomadland a stronger film than PYW but McDormand’s performance probably connects better with BAFTAs sensibilites. She also won London Film Critics Circle and will most likely win Indie Spirit considering the strength of Nomadland there. The only dint is her AACTA loss. It would definitely have been close though. It seems likely that the Oscar winner will be either Day or the Indie Spirit winner.April 17, 2021 at 3:38 am #1204205009
I feel like people are really trying with the undeniable remarks with Day. Her film is critically panned. From that factual thing alone, she is not undeniable, and it wouldn’t be about denying her but going with more acclaimed films & contenders as it usually happens. Like she is no Streep, nor does she have Sandra Bullock’s star power that led to a Best Picture nomination for The Blind Side. She’s a newcomer on her first nomination. She can still win, but let’s not act as if she were an undeniable contender because all the others have better movies & more acclaimed performances here.
I think we need to stop with this critically panned excuse to drive down her chances. While critics were lukewarm on this film, audience ratings are high (RT 86%) and considering that they loved Bohemian Rhapsody, a razzie worthy film, they could very well enjoy UsVBH too. Her biggest detractors to me are the are the lack of extra nominations, her newcomer status but biggest of all, her visibility. If she is going to lose the Oscar this will be the main reason why.April 17, 2021 at 1:08 am #1204204923
Split races tend to favor films that will win 0 Oscars though such as If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, Bridge of Spies etc. Promising Young Woman is guaranteed Original Screenplay.
So using your logic Day or Kirby will win, which while Day could very well and I’m currently predicting her, does not fit the bill of those winners you mentioned as they had much more broader support. While PYW may be rallied around in OS, it’s not hard for me to believe that those who are passionate about the film to also vote for Mulligan in actress, same for McDormand. I think the key to determine the winner will be to assess the whom the vote will go to if they are not super passionate about either of the two films.April 17, 2021 at 12:38 am #1204204890
The fact that the other examples lacked some of the above the line categories shows how weak their competition is in contrast to Mulligan fighting 2 narratives and a Best Picture actress. Promising Young Woman hit the same boxes as Blackkklansman 2 years ago and only came got 1 win from Adapted Screenplay. Sole screenplay wins are much more common than screenplay + acting
But the recent examples of sole screenplay wins (Blackkklansman, Get Out, Jojo Rabbit) had no chance in their acting categories as they were versing sweepers. As this race is very split, those in strong best picture contenders have an advantage, hence why McDormand and Mulligan still have a chance.