Forum Replies Created
December 4, 2021 at 10:59 am #1204626299
Nomadland just won Best Picture. In a less competitive year, true, but the Academy is absolutely willing to go for understated fare.
Nomadland was more outwardly emotional though. TPotD is way more thought-provoking than it is heartstring-tugging.December 4, 2021 at 10:52 am #1204626288
It just so happens that the top getters ends up totaling 10 films lol:
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
Don’t Look Up
Very interesting. Those are my predicted BP nominees only I have Being the Ricardos instead of CODA.December 4, 2021 at 10:38 am #1204626256
I agree The Power of the Dog won’t win. I thought it was great, and I would like to see it win, but not enough of the Academy will agree. Far too understated for their taste. I don’t think it’s winning Director either, that’s going to Spielberg or PTA, probably. Supporting Actress is the only category I’m currently predicting it to win, but even that could change.
I’m not hating on the film, not even remotely. I’m just trying to be pragmatic about its odds. I would love to be proven wrong.December 4, 2021 at 10:14 am #1204626226
Another reason I enjoyed this less than Jackie is that my pre-existing dislike towards the royal family (or monarchy in general). Why do they still exist?
I don’t know why that would bother you about Spencer, considering how critical of the institution it seems. It doesn’t exactly come across as royalist propaganda, at least. How could it, given the subject matter?November 28, 2021 at 11:28 am #1204610850
Still not convinced LP is getting into Picture or anything else but screenplay. Remember all we have heard so far is from is from film twitter and the people who are selling out theater are Anderson stans. Lets see what the academy thinks.
It seems to be doing better than Phantom Thread, and Phantom Thread got Picture & Director nominations despite zero recognition in equivalent categories at PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and in a much more competitive year to boot. It might not necessarily end up in the conversation to win either of them, but I would be very surprised if Licorice Pizza missed nominations for Picture or Director at this point.November 28, 2021 at 6:47 am #1204610429
I don’t think they particularly like it, but they have like a list of checkmarks and Belfast gets closest to the idea of what they expect a BP winner to look like.
Same reason so many of them thought Trial of the Chicago 7 was winning, even though not very many people thought it was that great. Sometimes a film is less than the sum of its parts.November 27, 2021 at 7:46 am #1204609116
More and more I’m convinced Nightmare Alley could take Picture/Director/Screenplay. There’s not enough passion for Belfast or King Richard, and The Power of the Dog and Licorice Pizza both seem like they might leave audiences cold (albeit not as cold as some would tell you). That leaves a perfect opportunity for Nightmare Alley to come in and sweep, assuming it’s upper-tier del Toro and not another Crimson Peak.
If Nightmare Alley isn’t received that warmly I don’t know what will happen. Maybe Don’t Look Up could win Picture & Screenplay while Campion or PTA wins Director? Maybe The Power of the Dog or Licorice Pizza could prove their detractors wrong and win despite their divisive nature? Maybe the pundits are right and Belfast actually is winning after all? I don’t know. Anyone who says there’s an obvious frontrunner right now is fooling themselves, I think. But maybe Nightmare Alley could be it? We’ll just have to wait and see.November 22, 2021 at 4:50 pm #1204595890
None of these are locks. Smit-McPhee probably won’t be nominated (too quiet of a performance and too young, without being young enough to be in the “novelty kid zone”) and Bradley Cooper 99.9% won’t be. He has like 5 minutes of a screentime, without any big enough monologue or conversation to be “Oscar bait”, and the character is a deplorable asshole (even if funny to watch).
Come on. I agree they aren’t locks, but you’re kidding yourself if you really think they’re that unlikely.November 21, 2021 at 11:46 am #1204592605
I still have my doubts about a romantic comedy like Licorice Pizza having a shot at BP. I don’t think the controversy around one of the characters being a minor will matter that much but sweet and fun coming of age story doesn’t exactly scream BP winner.
From what I’ve heard, there’s actually quite a bit of thematic depth to it, and a certain poignancy as well, which isn’t surprising given it’s a PTA film. It’s definitely more than just “sweet and fun”.
Not to mention the low nomination ceiling, with no tech or acting support.
That’s yet to be seen. Both Alana Haim and Bradley Cooper (who I think some might be underestimating due to his lack of screentime) are up for nominations, and it seems like a potential contender in Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design; the competition is stiff, but if there’s enough overall support it’s certainly a possibility in those categories.
As for plot, let’s just remember that Nomadland, an arthouse film influenced by the likes of Terrence Malick & Wong Kar-wai, won last year. I highly doubt Licorice Pizza is more “plotless” than that.November 21, 2021 at 9:18 am #1204592320
I certainly hope so. The alternatives seem kind of lackluster, unless Nightmare Alley ends up being del Toro’s best since Pan’s Labyrinth.November 20, 2021 at 12:32 am #1204590156
Didn’t Belfast get an A-? It’s not listed on the website, but a few publications mentioned it.November 19, 2021 at 4:27 am #1204588443
Anyone who thinks the Oscars aren’t a popularity contest is not paying attention. Even Parasite’s win, let’s be honest, was more about the population of Bong Joon-Ho, his cast after a great campaign than the quality of the film. Politics and popularity has always ruled the Oscars, always will.
It’s more of a fluke that every so often, they actually choose the best, like Silence of the Lambs, The Godfather, American Beauty, but more often they don’t, like Green Book & Driving Miss Daisy.
You’re not wrong, although there’s definitely a difference between the films that are popular with AMPAS and the ones popular with general audiences. I was mainly defending the Oscars against the argument the films they pick aren’t mainstream enough. There’s a lot of problems with the Oscars, but that’s not one of them. And they do give studios incentive to greenlight artsier, more auteur-driven projects, which I think is their main value in an increasingly risk-averse industry. Lots of great films may simply not exist if not for the Oscars.November 19, 2021 at 3:00 am #1204588340
Personally, I think it’s a good thing the Oscars aren’t just a popularity contest like the Grammys. Sure, it may alienate some non-film fans, but who really cares except ABC? They should be awarding the best films, not the most popular. Whether or not they actually do award the best is highly arguable (99% of people, myself included, would say most of the time they do not), but at least they try instead of just putting golden hats on movies that have already made googobs. It’s good they’re giving a boost to films that need it, and it’s good they serve as incentive for the industry to make films that are a little more artistic. If the general public isn’t into that, that’s on them.November 18, 2021 at 10:30 am #1204586442
For Oscar Awards, we estimate what films, directors and actors will be a candidate and win a prize every day but,
Let me confess: I’m just interested in nominations because I’m giving the awards from the films and actors the Oscar candidate.
I never wonder what award of the Academy in 23 categories, which will give you an award and this is not even a damn. Academy cannot decide on my name.
Nominations will be announced on February 8th, I follow all candidate movies and I personally distract my prizes.
The Academy will distribute the day of March 27, I will never care…
???November 18, 2021 at 1:02 am #1204585603
This year we’re definitely seeing a split with BP/BD.
I think if Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza or Nightmare Alley win BP they’re most likely also winning Director, and if Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard or Being the Ricardos win we’ll probably see a Picture/Director split. It’s far too early to say anything is definitely happening, though.Not now