Forum Replies Created
December 7, 2021 at 10:51 am #1204634072
Putting Spencer in. I just feel like Stewart is WAY to big for this to not get in BP. If I’m wrong, convince me so.
Keeping NA. Leaving like this as of now:
– Don’t Look Up
– King Richard
– Licorice Pizza
– Nightmare Alley
– The Power of the Dog
– Tick Tick Boom
– West Side Story
Spencer has horrible audience scores… it will get the Jackie treatment. Kristen Stewart can still win thoughDecember 7, 2021 at 10:38 am #1204634027
Yeah I don’t think Will is as obvious a winner as people are making it out to be. Safe for a nom but where is the passion for him and the movie?
Why do people keep asking this question? Will Smith won the NBR and King Richard won a lot of festival audience awards over movies like Belfast. King Richard also has an RT audience score of 98% compared to Power of the Dog with 65%.
There is a real world out there outside of the Gold Derby bubble…December 7, 2021 at 9:45 am #1204633781
I did say after the test screenings that this would get mixed reviews…December 3, 2021 at 6:36 pm #1204625056
Just out of interest what do you take issue with in the comparison? I guess the point Heptapod and I were trying to make is that whilst Smith gives a well received performance and has a strong narrative, neither his passion, narrative nor his performance are undeniable like Close. And with the amount of passion Cumberbatch’s performance has attracted and the fact it’s a showier and more transformative turn.
1. Cumberbatch’s passion, narrative or performance are not undeniable either
2. Disagree that Cumberbatch’s performance is more showy
3. Disagree that Cumberbatch’s performance is more transformative
The advantages that Colman had over Close…
1. Much more acclaimed performance with 2 major award wins compared to Close with 0 (which doesn’t apply here because Smith and Cumberbatch are tied at 1-1)
2. Much stronger movie with Close being a sole nominee (which won’t be the case here because King Richard will be a BP movie with even Ellis maybe being nominated)
3. Much bigger box office hit with an overall gross of 96 million compared to the 20 million of Wife (which won’t be the case here for obvious reasons)
There were many advantages Colman had that Cumberbatch will not have. Even Cumberbatch winning BAFTA which seems to be the only relevant comparison point is not a sure thing because we don’t even know who BAFTA will nominate. Let us not forget that they snubbed Carey Mulligan last year so anything can happen there.December 3, 2021 at 6:01 pm #1204624996
Not every comparison has to be 100% flawless for it to hold weight.
But a comparison has to make at least a tiny modicum of sense… might as well say Will Smith is the Colman and Cumberbatch is the Glenn Close this year if comparisons don’t have to make sense. And nobody is obsessing over it… if it’s a fruitless discussion you are free to stay away from it.December 3, 2021 at 5:24 pm #1204624901
Thank you. So Will Smith is the Glenn Close here and Benedict Cumberbatch is the Olivia Colman? Even then it still don’t make sense lol. Will Smith has never been close (no pun) to the narrative Close has. Cumberbatch is also a previous nominee, when Olivia wasn’t when she won and was only known in the British circle. Cumberbatch, although not a huge star, is way more known than Colman was at the time of her win.
Exactly it is a very very very strange comparison people are trying to make. Smith is a 2 time nominee and Cumberbatch is a 1 time nominee. Close had 6 nominations or something and Colman was a newcomer. Not remotely the same thing. Smith is winning not because he is “due” but because he has the movie, the role and the performance… his stardom and career is just a bonus.December 3, 2021 at 5:21 pm #1204624886
That may be so, but the Oscars aren’t decided by precursors. They’re decided by the voters, and we’ve seen in recent years that passion can override someone who’s “due”. Yes, there are definitely cases where it’s a foregone conclusion, but that’s usually due to there being less passion for the other contenders: was anyone really setting their hair on fire demanding Joe Pesci win over Pitt, for example?
My problem is with this assumption that Cumberbatch has more passion than Smith… What are you basing that opinion on?
People are trying really hard to make this out to be some sort of “due” narrative when that’s not really the case. Will Smith has the movie, he has the performance and he also has his iconic stardom to help him out. He is not purely winning just because of his stardom. His performance has a lot of passion and support behind it going by the NBR win and the audience scores… This is not at all comparable to someone like Close whose movie nobody cared about.December 3, 2021 at 4:27 pm #1204624787
I think we could be close to another Close/Colman situation here. Of course, Smith is naturally stronger than Close was just because King Richard is a Picture contender, but the fact that there is such a strong consensus on his main competitor having a more acclaimed, “better” performance than the foreshadowed career win makes me think that Cumberbatch taking enough passion votes to upend the race at the last second isn’t out of the question.
That’s not really true. Will Smith won NBR and Cumberbatch won NYFCC so they are on par there. And Cumberbatch is showing weakness by missing critics awards like Detroit where Smith was nominated. And this is at critics awards where Cumberbatch should be running the table!
Will Smith this year is more like Brad Pitt winning for Once Upon a Time… not really like Close in a movie nobody cares aboutDecember 3, 2021 at 1:45 pm #1204624341
A lot of people were stanning Passing, they’re even taking out Negga. Didn’t have Westside in their top 10 or most categories, now it’s in tons of categories. They had Nightmare in several categories now they’re dropping it like a rat.
Now this forum is pretending they’re predictions gods and their list remains mostly the same.
It’s almost like how several users were saying KR would suck and not get a nomination, a couple of weeks ago. Now Smith is sweeping. LOL.
Ah gotcha! West Side Story threw a wrench in my predictions for sure…
And I was one of those people sure that Nightmare Alley would be top 5 but guess I was wrong lolDecember 3, 2021 at 1:32 pm #1204624304
Jesus Christ what is happening… in just 24 hours this whole race has become chaotic.
It’s much the same as before no? Licorice Pizza won NBR, a foreign film won NYFCC, mostly standard stuff… the only strange thing was NBR shutting out Power of the Dog but I think a lot of us already knew Power of the Dog would not win best picture….December 3, 2021 at 1:28 pm #1204624298
You said this
Yes after you brought up my confidence and how it serves me in my personal life… all because I said Cumberbatch is more acclaimed than Dunst
I am tired of you harassing me and attacking me just for having movie opinions, so if you harass I am going to do the same in return. You can act like the victim all you want but you start with personal harassment each time even when I only make comments about movies and awards. You are the most pathetic poster hereDecember 3, 2021 at 12:49 pm #1204624199
Sounds like Ruth and DeBose were close in supporting actress…Not now