[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205354427

Winona Ryder. Tarantino likes a good comeback narrative and although, Ryder has been back with Stranger Things, she hasn’t done much major film work.

Plus, she has that diverse body of work including comedy (Heathers!!!) that he seems to like.

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[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205341699

I don’t necessarily agree with the sentiments of the actor or how they may have communicated their ballot but I also think things are being taken out of context here as well. I actually found them to be harsh to everyone lol. No one was left unscathed! It was very opinionated but they did provide reasons why they did/didn’t vote for based on what was on screen.

But if we are going to be so critical, shouldn’t we throw some of that to the Director as well for consistency sake?Being resentful to Banshees because it was “so good”?!? Because Spielberg was able to explore film and had parental support, the experience and story are meaningless?! Sorry, that’s not credible film criticism to me either.

But that’s the nature of voting – every one will come to their own choices with different rationale.

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[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205280395

Mescal taking BAFTA would be amazing. Not only do I think he deserves it but it makes the 3-way Oscar race between Butler, Farrell and Fraser even tighter!

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205265711

When does voting open/close? Not counting out Fraser just yet. If that film continues to build on its solid box office returns and generates more mainstream buzz, Fraser could still pull it off.

And I’m not a fan of the movie. I thought it had some critical flaws. I’m hoping it’s between Farrell and Mescal. But I do recall the vibe of the packed theatre I saw The Whale with in the Fall. It packs an emotional punch and Fraser’s transformative performance is the key to that.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205256533

Pope could still be in the mix. I thought it may have lost steam and I have yet to see it, but it sounds like a film that may play well as a screener and home viewing. Similar to The Whale. I wonder if screeners were sent out for it to voters?

Mescal is my personal choice but Aftersun may be hit or miss with voters. I think he would be a very deserving nominee but I also thought that about Simon Rex last year (how was he not nominated?!?) and don’t want to get my hopes up!

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205256518

Williams and her team miscalculated and it may cost them. The whole “the types of scenes I shot were ones of a lead performance” comments don’t really hold lol. Still has a good shot, especially if the Academy love Fabelmans but no way a lock.

On another note, how the hell did Swinton not get nominated for ‘…Kevin’?!? She was brilliant.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205254509

Mescal gave my favourite performance in this category (that I’ve seen) this year so I’m hoping he takes that 5th spot. He has no shot to win but the nomination would be a win for him and this small film.

But Cruise could still surprise. Felix is coming really strong down the stretch but was it too late? And what happened to Pope? I don’t think Jackman is in the race.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205248404

Yeoh is definitely still in this……she was never gonna sweep everything with the level of competition this year. It’s still neck-and-neck with Blanchett and if I was betting today, I think it would break for Yeoh.

And I do think many AMPAS members like to vote for someone who wants to win. Cate seems rather ambivalent lol.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205246504

Just a few days ago, many here were claiming Butler had this on lock. It was silly to even debate it lol! Goes to show unless there is an undeniable frontrunner, the race can turn quickly. The three all have things going for them….will be interesting how this unfolds.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205246384

I am really happy for Brendan. I was pulling for Farrell but Brendan was great too!

What a race Actor has turned into. But The Whale is really picking up steam.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205245567

Sorry I meant Dahmer is doing pretty well across all awards groups considering all the rather pointed criticism it received. I know it was a ratings smash and all but that kind of critique usually kills a show. And this one wasn’t even critically praised!

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[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205245522

Nash beats Danes with no Coolidge in the category?!? I recall when critics were pretty cold towards Dahmer and the general outrage of it being exploitive. Seems to be doing fine?!?

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[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205244461

What was the deadline or timeline for members to vote?

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205243654

Totally agree – being in a BP frontrunner may not have any impact and Farrell could easily lose.

But I’m not sure Banshees is comparable to Spotlight. Banshees is more of a character study on loneliness, kindness, family/friendship that relies heavily on its principal cast to convey those themes, whereas with Spotlight, I felt the ‘big-mess’ of the true story and its social/cultural importance was front and centre ahead of the performances.

That said, of the three frontrunners this year, Farrell would be my personal pick. I admire the two other performance too but Farrell brought this vulnerability that really resonated. Of course, Mescal may be my favourite overall although I have not seen Nighy or Pope.

[Arias Joined: Oct 1st, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1205237394

Not at all surprised that Williams was snubbed this morning. The category placement has been odd from the get go. Perhaps it may have worked in a weaker year and, whether you agree with the SAG lineup or not, the actresses nominated really carry their films and are pivotal. I don’t think that’s the case with The Fabelmans – it’s really about Spielberg.

That being said, not sure Williams will get snubbed Oscar morning since the Spielberg effect may carry over. It will depend on the Academy passion for Davis and Ana.

I also wonder if some voters will go rogue and just put Williams in supporting, regardless of the campaign. It could split the vote and she could miss in both, or go like Winslet (who campaigned supporting for Reader and lead for Revolutionary Road, right?).