One other reason why I’m not picking PARASITE for Best Picture: The Moonlight comparisons that simply just fall flat, because Moonlight won the Golden Globe for Best Drama Picture. That’s a major precursor. Golden Globe winners that went on to win Best Picture either pick up Best Film or Director wins at the Golden Globes.

And the ones that…[Read more]

Not buying the overconfidence in American Factory. If they simply blind voted, yes, it wins. But we know most of them watch these documentaries (Icarus, Free Solo).

The “American” angle and “important person” narrative didn’t work for RBG, and I doubt it will work for Obama.

Sticking with For Sama, with The Cave as a spoiler.

Their definitely gonna spread the wealth amongst the Best Picture nominees.

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood takes Supporting Actor and Production Design

Joker takes Best Actor, Original Score and Makeup & Hairstyling

Parasite takes Original Screenplay and International Film

JoJo Rabbit takes Adapted Screenplay and Costume Design

Marriage…[Read more]

Last year I got 20 out of 24 correct (25th place overall on Gold Derby) because for the first time I decided to predict with my head instead of my heart. And it paid off big time. Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther all the way.

This year, I’m trying my utmost best to do the same.

My heart says follow the pack and go with…[Read more]

TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT
Marion Cotillard – Best Actress
Best Foreign Language Film

JACKIE
Natalie Portman – Best Actress
Mica Levi – Best Original Score
Best Costume Design

This entire post makes no sense.

Voting a film for Visual Effects does not mean that voter will automatically vote it for Best Picture. Far from it. The same with any other category.

And why do people keep assuming that the new International, POC voter base only likes highbrow films?

Joker did not get a leading 11 nominations because of a…[Read more]

Thank God they don’t vote for the Oscars! It’s shocking just how highbrow critics have become. This entire list has been their entire awards season. Every critics group and critics “Best of” lists have been 100% just the above.

The most glaring observations coming out of all these ballots are:

1. JoJo Rabbit has palpable passion across the board. It might not be a #1 film, but all those #2 and #3 votes will keep it in the race until the very end.

2. I’m definitely going with 1917 for Best Picture. Parasite is looking more and more like a #1 or bust film. A true…[Read more]

Production Design and Visual Effects will most certainly not be the same. BAFTA went all in on 1917, as they did with The Favourite last year.

And ROMA was all over those ballots last year.

It seems they keep asking the same people every year. That is quite evident.

Tom O’Neil, don’t do this to me! I am this close to predicting a Johansson upset, and you are not making it easier!

Hungary’s Those Who Remained.

One of the most beautifully written films of the year. Abigél Szõke should’ve been a worthy Best Actress nominee.

“Marriage Story was fake, which is too bad because there probably is a story there — I think [Noah Baumbach]’s writing about himself — but it just doesn’t ring true.”

My thoughts exactly. The writing is very superfluous and exaggerated in every way.

Since all stats are getting royally screwed this year:

Kathy Bates winning Supporting Actress for Richard Jewell. She got in because of passion from voters, so she can win based on passion.

A total slog and a huge bore. One of the most overrated films of the year, by far. So of course critics went bananas for it. So predictable and pretentious, just like the film in question.

That over 3 hour running time sure didn’t make it easy, because I doubt many people even finished watching it in one sitting, let alone at all.

Adrian Brody. Genuine, unprepared, and sublimely delivered.

Still one of the best upsets the Oscars have ever delivered.

I’ve been flirting with an Erivo win for a while now, and she might just pull it off. The same way Glory (Common, John Legend) did during OscarSoWhite.

Production Design I’m sticking with 1917.

Pretty sure.

Sound category correlation with Editing winners, it perfectly fits traditional Editing winners (most Editing, bombastic editing), etc.

If there is a mindboggling upset, it will be Joker, not Parasite. And I doubt that very much.

Parasite would be the weirdest Editing winner in DECADES.

Film Editing is not the category where…[Read more]

Only the second actor in history to sweep awards season twice, joining Daniel Day Lewis.

My girl, Renée Zellweger. It’s the one Oscar win I’m gonna be cheering for on Sunday.

I’d rather 1917 win Visual Effects than have them give the Oscar to The Irishman as some consolation prize. What an absolute disaster that would be. Especially after the Apes films didn’t even win this category. Exorbitantly expensive post production work and that is what they came up with? It would be a complete joke, and I bet you many will not…[Read more]