[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205272935

Anthagiox wrote:

More acclaimed according to whom? People on the Internet? Definitely not the Grammys. It’s clear the industry views Beyonce’s work much more differently than the Internet pundits who often will praise albums for clicks and out of fear of a popstar’s fanbase. At the end of the day, it’s clear the Grammys do not care about what reviews say.

To…musical critics? As it does for every album per year? Renaissance IS the most acclaimed album of the year, per Metacritic points and AOTY.org that accumulates musical publications. Just as DAMN, Fetch the Bolt Cutters, NFR, and even Blackstar in the year of Lemonade topped both MC and AOTY. Jon Batiste’s album didn’t even have 5 MC reviews to its name.

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205272571

This is still As It Was or Easy on Me. Break My Soul needed more sparse competition and About Damn Time is too light to take it.

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205270754

Why are we still posting promotion/concerts as if it gives any of the contenders a leg up when voting has been over since Jan 4th? That also goes for the first wave of confirmed performers because Bad Bunny and Harry Styles performing doesn’t mean they snatched anything major. Come ON, PEOPLE. We’ve been at this for too many years to fall for gullible shit like that.

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205265500

MysticMagix wrote:

Question…im really curious..how did halle berry win? It seems SO HARD for a poc to win best actress. Did she campaign hard?? Im confused how she did it

I don’t know how her campaign went other than “first black actress winner” being pushed hard and with Denzel in the mix, they decided to cover bases since no other black actor had won since Sidney Poitier. Halle didn’t even sweep! She had a lone SAG win and Sissy Spacek was the frontrunner. So that tells you that even with a typically desirable, biracial woman at the forefront, SHE was not even seen as undeniable enough to sweep (and thank God, cause her performance is wretched and for THAT role to be the one they finally decided to reward is horrid). Even Forrest Whitaker and Jamie Foxx got the undeniable angle, a rarity for black men (they swept critics too).

So, for 95 years, NO black actress has been undeniable enough to sweep her way through or get more wins? Make me cough even louder of the embarrassment and the way anti-black people try to justify it with “it’s all about the performance”.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205265438

Check in after these noms…..

As soured and poisonously annoyed I am of Danielle and Viola’s omissions, I can’t say I’m too surprised. I’ve been here for a long time, well over a decade at this point, and egregious snubs of POC actors (particularly black women) have come and gone. From 2010 to now, the black Best Actress nominees were;

Viola (The Help in 2011 and Ma Rainey in 2020)
Quvenzhane Wallis (2012)
Ruth Negga (2016. This gap???)
Cynthia Erivo (2019)
Andra Day (2020)

All but Viola missed precursors and were susceptible to snubs and even Viola just got snubbed TODAY ijbol. I predicted for a while that she would unfortunately miss because of a lack of proper passion here and would have to rely on her revered status. But, for Danielle to miss for such a baity role/performance in a watchable, greatly reviewed film that the Academy would normally embrace has shattered all hope for another black winner here. In fact, I would say that ANY black actor (especially women) are in danger of snubs unless they are THE frontrunner.

If that’s how the game is gonna be played from now on, I’d like to see black Hollywood come out the woodworks and do the EXACT “grassroots campaigning” for any lowkey black actor in an indie or even just in general. All fair game, right? And if Andrea’s nom taught me anything, it’s that the part of the acting branch IS able to go out of their way to embrace an indie nom like this with no precursor support. Which makes them EVEN WORSE for ignoring Lupita, Regina Hall,  Alfre Woodard, Gugu Mbatha Raw, Nicole Beharie and so on.

I’m also partially blaming pundits as I always do. When Till came out in NYFF, there was a CONCERNING amount of “Deadwyler is amazing but will Oscar voters even watch Till?” and that sentiment KEPT going. However, when it comes to Andrea, there was NONE of that. Instead, it was possible embraces and even “Is the Best Actress race about to take a turn?? Andrea Riseborough COULD actually be nominated” despite the absurdity of it all. THAT is what’s fucking me up other than Frances Fisher’s venomous spirit. As I say, pundits treat black contenders as barely hanging on by threads or just irrelevant and then write faux thinkpieces when they get snubbed. Tiring and pathetic, just like this campaign.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205255043

wrote:

Oh of course, I wasn’t denying that. Sorry for my phrasing. But wouldn’t you agree that Michelle likely receiving some votes in supporting and not having a lot of enthusiasm is gonna hurt her badly? Like you said, that SAG snub is bad. I also don’t think Danielle is a lock.

I don’t really take Michelle getting votes in Supporting all that seriously. She’s been placed in Lead this whole time and they know she has. That hoopla of her going Supporting is just pundits trying to pull some last minute stint because they felt like that’s where she should have been this whole time AND  it’s a sense of obligation that she should be nominated regardless, when both regionals and precursors suggest that’s not the case. SAG miss is bad because with her being showy and SAG having a popular voting system, she reallllyyy should’ve made it there. It also stings that they have Ensemble and Paul Dano there too.

Danielle isn’t a LOCK but I think she’s mostly comfortable. That Globe miss could be a weird outlier.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205255024

wrote:

People put such emphasis on no 1 votes, but we truly have no idea who has those votes. It’s not like anyone expected JK Simmons and Judi Dench to get them last year, especially Dench OVER Balfe.

Well, #1 votes truly do matter because that’s how we got Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz last year. JK Simmons is inexplicable since I can only think his name got him in a mess of a category and Judi Dench is a loved vet who had an essential scene towards Belfast’s end. For Balfe, I don’t think she had the enthusiasm necessary to lock her in. It wasn’t a performance most people had huge adoration for and was a #3 or #4 type.

 

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205254986

Check in before noms:

What did we learn last year that we should know every year, kiddos? #1s mean everything as well as the occasional #2s. Cate and Michelle are a given. Ana and Danielle fit this criteria as well which leaves the last slot to Viola and WMW.

Viola has a weak film and a performance that won’t incite passion and I’m still afraid that she’s more of a #3 or 4 instead of a #1 or 2. The Woman King also missing at places it shouldn’t be getting snubbed at (SAG Ensemble, BAFTA longlist bomb, PGA) WMW has a loud enough performance that would have some basics putting her at the top but also a divsive enough performance that would have voters not place her at all (that SAG miss should NOT have happened at all). Viola’s pro is her name and WMW’s pro is being in the bigger film. What to do?

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205242189

To comment on the unserious; Oscar voting began, what, 3 days ago? There has been no mention of this movie or Risenborough in the ENTIRETY of this race (not even in the LAST WEEK) by critics or pundits reporting on Oscar screenings. Yet, SUDDENLY, on the day Oscar voting begins, there are several “campaigned” tweets by some actors and pundits for this woman all within in the same timeframe and all having very similar wording, as if they were instructed to do so.  We’ve been beaten over the head by how “underseen” Till is for why Danielle Deadwyler is in trouble and how much of a low priority screener it is, but we are now to predict Andrea Risenborough in a film that hasn’t even seen a quarter of The Inspection’s box office? How many are “just now seeing Till” or other actual contenders, but To Leslie has supposedly been seen and raved by several now?

Be allll the way the fuck serious.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205240111

I would take Bad Bunny seriously if he showed actual strength with the nominatons. A win for him would be CODA-like, nominations and stat wise.

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205237949

babypook wrote:

Agreed. Would that make her a “filler” nominee? And one who can win?

Pookie!

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205236651

Why is there talk about Margot? She’s FINITO. BAFTA/SAG snub despite Babylon making Ensemble is a negative for her, not a plus. She’s also nowhere near a passion pick.

Cate
Michelle
Ana
Danielle
Viola/WMW for the last slot. I’m nervous for Viola because that performance is not a #1 type of vote-getter and The Woman King has been collapsing, especially with this Ensemble miss.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205236599

P(oweR) Valley wrote:

Butler can certainly push himself to an Oscar win, but Rami Malek proved his industry clout with his Emmy win. I’m going with Collin until the bitter end… or at least until Austin upsets at BAFTA.

Butler winning at BAFTA wouldn’t be an upset. They’re going to love Elvis just as much as Banshees and he can very well take it with the showier performance. Farrell can still win there but with BAFTA being an Oscar copycat, they just go with Butler.

GD is in its annual denial stage and falls into the same trap year after year.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205234130

Congratulations, Austin Butler on your incoming sweep unless Colin Farrell takes BAFTA.

[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 756 View Predictions]

#1205223788

Gucci wrote:

Honey, Kendrick Lamar is third at best. He will NOT get more votes than Adele and Beyoncé. Plus, voters have a huge bias towards Rap.

I would even say just outside of the top 5 tbh

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