[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205340159

Manav wrote:

If she presents best actress it’ll either look like the biggest “staged moment” of all time or the biggest “staged flop” of all time.

And a full on ” Beware the ides of March ” moment, but I still think it’s going to be a Michelle Yeoh win.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205340149

Fuck this and all the thinking. I’m going to keep Yeoh at #1 and idc if I die on that hill.

Exactly. I’m sticking with Michelle Yeoh for the win as well. I think she has more factors than not pushing her towards the gold. Yeoh’s Rock & Roll performance might register more to the younger branch of Oscar voters than Blanchett’s.But more than anything, it might come down to a voter ( one than is torn between Blanchett and Yeoh ) saying to themselves ” Ok which one hasn’t already won an Oscar ?” It worked for an Adrian Brody win.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205340083

Brayfers wrote:

Cinematography: All Quiet On The Western Front

Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Costume Design: Elvis

Makeup & Hairstyling: Elvis

Production Design: Babylon

Original Score: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Original Song: RRR

I think you’re probably right on all counts except for Original Score : I’m leaning towards ” Babylon “. In addition to it being a great score, it at times served as the script when it fell short. But a EEAAO win wouldn’t surprise me at this point.

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[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205339663

FreemanGriffin wrote:

^actually Kerry Condon was the favorite to win until Bassett won the Golden Globe – since then Bassett has been the favorite in the odds.

You’ve been wrong before about facts and from the beginning since the nominations were announced, pundits were in concert about a Basset win.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205339644

Novic wrote:

JLC is absolutely 90% narrative. You can’t tell me Laura Dern won her Oscar a few years back because she was the absolute best in the category. The industry wants to see acting legends win and momentum is on her side.

But…my brain tells me Condon makes the most sense as an Oscar winner.

Prior to last year I would’ve agreed with you 100%. Not since Peter Finch has an actor had such a strong narrative for a win and look how it worked out for Chadwick Boseman. He had narrative and sympathy working in his favor but Sir Anthony Hopkins prevailed ( which I loved ). But I think you’re right about the progeny of acting legends still factoring into who wins. While I’ve never begrudged Liza Minnelli’s 1972 win for ” Cabaret ” ( she was balls to the wall fantastic ) but being the daughter of Oscar winning Director Vincent Minnelli and legendary, jaw-dropping Oscar snubbed Judy Garland helped push her across the finish line over neck and neck competitor Diana Ross in ” Lady Sings The Blues “. Not to take anything away from Liza Minnelli’s win, but many felt honoring her would be a way of honoring Judy Garland as well. The same argument can be made about Laura Dern’s win and a possible Jamie Lee Curtis win.I wouldn’t call it a Nepo-Baby win but a Legacy win.

Oscar, especially in the supporting categories, tends to reward legacy moreso than lead. John Gielgood in ” Arthur ” over Howard Rollins in ” Ragtime “? C’mon. Sean Connery for ” The Untouchables ” over Morgan Freeman in ” Street Smart “.Seriously? Although I did agree with Jack Palance’s win for ” City Slickers “. He was the best of the bunch in that year’s category. His win was deserved and legacy/career rolled into one.

I still think it’s Angela Basset for the win with Kerry Condon right on her heels for a possible upset. I’m not discounting Jaime Lee Curtis as the spoiler though. She has the wind at her back these days.It could go to any of the three which is surprising since Bassett was the odds on favorite from day one. I’m still predicting that Bassett pulls off the win.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205339588

SarahvsAwards wrote:

For every time someone cites an example of when the ballots actually tipped an upset, there’s 10 times to match when they misled. Just last year Penelope Cruz was going to upset in actress.

It’s about 20 voters out of a voting bloc of 10,000 people. And the ones that are sent in are usually done so solely to act as clickbait and provoke reactionary responses. They’re very fun to read, and usally give some hilarious quotes, but as a gauge they’re worthless.

Like, I wish Colin was winning and would leap at an excuse to hopedict, but if every single ballot so far had been a vote for him it wouldn’t impact my prediction.

Your post was a brilliant read and boy do I agree. There are a couple of other categories I would say are 99 percent locks, however I always save that last one percent for the wildcard/out of nowhere win. Not until the fat lady sings ” And the winner is …” do I believe anything to be true. The hopeful part of me thinks i’ts still an open field between Austin Butler, Collin Farrell and Brendon Fraser. While the logical part says it’s narrowed between Butler and Fraser. And the realistic part says it will be Butler that takes stage and says ” Thank you! ” The one percent that I always save in the realm of the ” WTF- I sure as hell didn’t see that coming ” inexplicable is Bill Nighy. All that said, I’m pulling for a Collin Farrell win but think it will be Austin Butler. In all honesty, unlike the Best Actress race, I’d be fine with any of the five nominees names being called on March 12.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205339515

Manav wrote:

People who say “BUT…but Cate was unlikable” don’t deserve to be Oscar voters.

Great point. I’ve never been on board with the nonsense that an actor has to be ” likable ” in a role to be award worthy. Absolute B.S. The actor’s responsibility is to play the character at the top of their talent and not bore the audience to death. Some actors have played some of the most heinous monsters this side of Vladimir Putin and went on to win the gold. Sir Anthony Hopkins won an Emmy for playing Adolf Hitler in ” The Bunker ” and his first Oscar playing Hannibal Lector in ” The Silence Of The Lambs “. My stomach literally would twist into knots every time Mo’Nique appeared on screen in ” Precious “. She terrified me more than the demon did in “The Exorcist ” and Louise Fletcher’s stone faced, sadistic Nurse Ratched in ” One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest ” was every patient’s worst nightmare. Did I like the characters of the aforementioned? Hell no, but I loved the actors work in the role. If an actor can make an ” unlikable ” character engaging then they are doing their job. Cate Blanchette’s Lydia Tar was a complex, narcissistic monster and I could not take my eyes off of her. She held my attention wondering ” what will she do next?” like nobody’s business. A fascinating character study. I’d be thrilled for a Cate Blanchette win but I’m rooting for Michelle Yeoh. In fact, I’d be thrilled for anyone of the nominees in the Best Actress category winning except for Michelle Williams. I loved her work in ” The Fabelmans ” just not in the lead actress actress category.

I don’t subscribe to that notion of ” unlikeable ” ruling someone out for a win. Ridiculous. If a voter can’t discern between an actor delivering a great performance of a reprobate and that of the character itself, then they should not be in possession of a ballot.This is what happens win SAG-AFTRA and now the Academy opens up membership to just about anyone these days.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205331581

WeirdGuyNoah wrote:

This is a shit take. A whole room celebrating a child rapist is a worse crime than an adult man slapping another adult man for insulting his wife. If it wasn’t a televised embarrassing moment that wouldn’t have even been considered a crime from the public. In fact I’d go as far to say child rape is maybe the literal worst crime of all time.

I totally agree. Plus Roman Polanski really is an asshole.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205327202

Can we all agree that Ana de Armas is such a weak link in these lineup of actresses, it was so embarrasing for the academy to snub Danielle Deadwyler.

Even Riseborough was phenomenal, aside the weird campaign, i can admit it

Nope, I cannot agree. In fact, I voted for Ana de Armas for Best Actress in the SAG Awards.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205324537

Suzanne Vale wrote:

The race is between Yeoh and Blanchett (duh), yet is this a likely year where a scenario could play out that someone else could sneak in for the win (i.e., Glenda Jackson for a Touch of Class)? I feel I’d have a better chance just flipping a coin, musing which actress could play the others role better, who’ll be best dressed, etc., etc.

Great point. 1973’s Best Actress race looked like a battle between Ellen Burstyn for ” The Exorcist ” and Barbra Streisand for ” The Way We Were “. Ellen Burstyn wrote in her autobiography ” Lessons In Becoming Myself ” that legendary director George Cukor launched a smear campaign against ” The Exorcist “. Personally writing letters to members of the Academy not to vote for the film in any capacity (Cukor before his death denied this ) His influence ( or not ) may have opened up a path for dark horse Glenda Jackson’s win. Good or bad, grass roots support from heavy weights in the industry carries weight and it worked for Andrea Riseborough. Will Cate and Michelle split the vote making Andrea this year’s Glenda Jackson? Probably not but anything is possible. I’m on board with the Oscar going to anyone except Michelle Williams ( who’s work I love but I think she’s in the wrong category this year )

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205322543

MD wrote:

Narrative that, narrative this…Boseman lost with the ‘I’m dead’ narrative. It’s the 2021 race all over again and people have learned nothing.

I was thinking the exact same thing. It’s anybody’s game at this point. The only prediction I am comfortable making is that one of the five will win.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205322110

LawC wrote:

Blanchett is really not all that in TÁR.
She’s playing yet another cold, icy, unsympathetic, unapproachable character. It’s nothing we haven’t seen her do a dozen times before.

Her much-publicized trained skills barely make a dent as well:
The 2-3 sentences of German are spoken in a terrible accent, in her big piano playing moment during the Julliard scene her hands are cleverly hidden from the camera and her conducting has been called out by real conductors.

Terrible German accent? Quatsch. Her character was from Staten Island, NY. She’s lived in Berlin for 8 or 9 years. I know Americans that have lived in Germany for decades and still speak it with an American dialect. Cate’s German was excellent and she spoke more than 2-3 lines in German.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205313286

Why would you dress up Walmart and try and pass it off as Sachs Fifth Avenue? Rachel Weisz is lovely and certainly up for the acting demands of playing Taylor but she doesn’t have Elizabeth Taylor’s breath catching beauty. If you’re going to play one of the most beautiful women in history, then you need one of the most beautiful actresses on the planet in the role.

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[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205312049

H_H_ wrote:

Like I said they do stupid shit and have their weaknesses (Luhrmann). But no way SAG is going with Farrell. Not in a million years I wish lol

I voted for Colin Farrell and the cast as well for Best Cast.

[Berlin2002 Joined: Dec 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 135 View Predictions]

#1205311753

jjjmoss wrote:

the alternatives were recognizing WOC i.e. the sag winner or the globe winner, and ampas was having none of that

You totally missed the point of my comment and veered off into some lane on the lost highway. You enjoy the rest of your night.