Forum Replies Created
March 1, 2021 at 1:12 am #1204072577
I’m going to throw this wild one out there for the fun of it:
ROTY – Savage
AOTY – Djesse, Vol. 3
SOTY – cardigan
BNA – Megan Thee Stallion
Wouldn’t be mad, honestly.February 24, 2021 at 8:10 am #1204058595
Reminds me of everyone predicting lemonade😅 The only magazine that predicted correctly was Complex.
I don’t think this is strictly accurate.
From what I remember and a quick Google search, most media outlets wanted a Beyonce win but predicted either an Adele sweep or (oddly enough) Adele / Beyonce splitting the vote and clearing a path for someone else – something I don’t think is completely off the table with this year’s widely-presumed favorites either.February 20, 2021 at 8:03 am #1204051632
It’s essentially a case of whether Dua’s ROTY/SOTY love is strong enough to transfer into an AOTY sweep, or whether Taylor’s love in AOTY is strong enough to somehow also carry her to a SOTY win.
Both options are plausible, as is a split between both of them (the likeliest eventuality is that Taylor wins album, Dua song or record), but I agree that there’s surely an upset or two hidden in there somewhere. If it happens, it’ll probably be in the Song/Record categories. But I’m also starting to suspect that Taylor not appearing in ROTY could be just as much about preventing a Taylor sweep as it is clearing the way for a Dua one.January 17, 2021 at 9:46 pm #1203988964
Two stray thoughts:
1) I’m fairly certain Adele and Beyoncé will both be releasing new solo projects during this Grammy cycle so I imagine the conversation (and nominations + eventual wins) will centre pretty heavily around them. Kendrick is also circling which means the frontrunners are already near-locked. Keep an eye on Rihanna too.
2) evermore’s nominations will depend heavily on folklore’s reception this year. I’d say a Pop Vocal nom is close to a lock (Swift will likely be active with re-recording business during voting), but nothing beyond that. evermore is generally being viewed as an extension of folklore, which will hurt it. Also, she’s not touching the general field again for a while if she wins AOTY in March.January 6, 2021 at 6:16 am #1203965594
(alt – Future Nostalgia; upset – Fine Line)
Solo: Don’t Start Now
(alt – Everything I Wanted; upset – Watermelon Sugar)
(alt – Rain On Me; upset – Intentions)
I can easily see any of these alt picks taking it, too.January 4, 2021 at 4:38 am #1203961069
I don’t think Swift needs to have a majority of other voting bodies on her side as much as she just needs enough of them to overcome Future Nostalgia’s possible advantage among pop voters.January 3, 2021 at 8:52 pm #1203960790
Can we then make an early presumption that hip hop/pop/reggae fans voted for her in AOTY? Is Dua getting the Weeknd votes? Lawd she actually has a chance. This might actually be closer than we thought.
It’s one voter of thousands, to be fair. I imagine there’s always a fair share of members who vote for music outside of their ‘block’ in the general categories.January 3, 2021 at 7:17 am #1203959390
since taylor obviously is getting a lot of genre support in AOTY, why not SOTY too? i mean she did campaign a lot that showcased her songwriting folklore long ponds, the apple music interview and evermore
Wilder things have happened, I guess, but I don’t see a relative SOTY-outlier like cardigan winning unless the hype for folklore carries her that far. It’s definitely possible, but I’m not sure that will be the case. Taylor is my predicted winner for AOTY but I think she’ll be scraping that win, if anything.January 1, 2021 at 10:37 pm #1203957376
For Future Nostalgia to win AOTY, one of two things need to happen:
a) Lipa’s lead among pop voters needs to be substantial enough to outnumber Swift’s likely cross-genre support, or:
B) Lipa’s cross-genre supports needs to be a lot more substantial than predicted – or, at least, more substantial than Swift’s.
Both would guarantee a landslide, but I’d say a) is the more likely outcome. However, I still think Swift will edge it out. I do think Future Nostalgia’s cross-genre love is being underestimated, but instinct tells me that Swift will inevitably appeal more heavily to traditional voters (of which there are still a substantial amount). I see pop voters being pretty neck-and-neck with a slight lead to Future Nostalgia and I’m not sure that would be enough to guarantee Lipa the win.December 31, 2020 at 4:32 pm #1203955632
My ideal GF would probably be something like:
AOTY – folklore
ROTY – Don’t Start Now
SOTY – Black Parade
BNA – Megan Thee StallionDecember 26, 2020 at 8:27 pm #1203946915
Some of the red flag, precedent and Grammy history analysis that is brought up in here occasionally strikes me as pulling at straws. Sometimes an album just wins because it wins and loses it because it lost.December 22, 2020 at 5:03 pm #1203940395
AOTY: folklore – Taylor Swift
ROTY: Savage – Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyoncé
SOTY: Don’t Start Now – Dua Lipa
BNA: Megan Thee StallionDecember 20, 2020 at 11:58 pm #1203936356
There’s always a pattern here: whenever a frontrunner so much as breathes, there’s sudden posts like: the tide is turning, they have the momentum, they’re going 5/6 now etc. I’ve even made posts like that myself.
The reality is that the race has not changed in any substantial way – most votes are probably already cast in the first place. Dua could win, Taylor could win, they could split the votes. A SNL episode won’t change that in any meaningful way; evermore might of, or maybe it backfired. There’s no way of knowing until the votes come in.
I personally believe Taylor’s Grammy history could work against her, but Grammy voters have proved time and time again they care very little about that: Adele sweeping every category she was nominated for three years in a row, for one (we shouldn’t even count Billie out of the song categories for this exact reason). If they love an album, they’ll reward it.
Has anyone won AOTY three times in recent memory? No. Has a pop album that charted out of the Top 50 of Billboard’s year-end won AOTY in recent memory (if ever)? Can’t think of any. There’s red flags everywhere for everybody.December 18, 2020 at 5:21 pm #1203931205
Some of the Swift fans in here are setting her (and themselves) up a little.
I still fairly confidently predict her as the winner, but I can just as easily see an upset occurring. It depends on whether voters are weary of over-rewarding her in the category or would rather award a fresh face instead.
In regards to the latter, there’s been cases of ‘veterans’ losing against newer artists but also the inverse. It’s impossible to predict.