[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204512563

lipabridgerstwigs wrote:

Thank god Olivia isn’t going against a more acclaimed album by a young singer-songwriter who’s beloved by the grammys!

thank god HTE was a flop, even Evermore was bigger and more acclaimed.

but my prediction is still billie for aoty

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[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204511204

Female albums that spent the most first weeks consecutive inside the top 5 of the US Billboard 200 albums chart in HISTORY:

21 – 39 — AOTY
The Bodyguard – 30 — AOTY
1989 – 24 — AOTY
Daydream – 23 — Lost to a most successful album in sales and acclaim by a young singer-songwriter
Let’s Talk About Love – 23 — was not nominated for AOTY
The Emancipation Of Mimi – 22 — lost to a rock album by a band much loved by the grammy
WWAFAWDWG? – 21 — AOTY
SOUR – 19 — my personal bet to win album of the year
25 – 19 — AOTY
Fearless – 18 — AOTY

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#1204508967

Deemy wrote:

I know without a doubt Harry got blocked at least from ROTY and SOTY.

Harry lost a name in SOTY and ROTY when he chose to submit AY over WS

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[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204507975

the comparisons to Evermore and Reputation are silly, if you want to compare it to something in Taylor’s history it’s Fearless-Speak Now. That said, Evermore is right for BPVA, you can go into BPSP and AOTY. Taylor has immense visibility as artist, a big and acclaimed album and a year without committees.
But Evermore won’t win, they don’t love Taylor to the point of giving her an AOTY just for an album with good sales and great acclaim. Taylor has 2 aotys for blockbuster contemporary culture classics in pop/country music and 1 AOTY for the industry dubbed the ultimate quarantine album.

AOTY is will be won by Sour and the only chance he won’t win is for voters not to take Olivia as seriously as a singer-songwriter. so in that case it will go to billie as a safe choice that won’t bring too many questions.

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#1204502024

M wrote:

The statistics are more relevant now than ever, since its a straight vote. Pop makes up only 17% of the voters. I wonder if that’ll translate to some majors snubs in favor of more surprise nominees from american roots, alternative or rock:

link? @m

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#1204498596

Darren wrote:

She has the biggest album of the year by any artist who wasn’t caught on camera using a racial slur. Grammy voters love rewarding commercial success, especially for breakout artists. Olivia is a lock in all the top categories just as Billie is.

well if Morgan didn’t have the time advantage Sour would have already sold more than his album.

[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204498292

Soltseven wrote:

I agree that SOUR and Happier Than Ever could split some votes, but mostly pop ones meaning Olivia would be the most affected. I have a feeling that rock/alternative would support Billie more than Olivia, and they are a huge block. At this point, I still have Billie as the front-runner for AOTY.

Olivia should get more pop votes than Billie as Billie doesn’t have a huge support in pop as even though she won ROTY2 and SOTY she never won BPSP.

 

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#1204498092

Darren wrote:

Raising Sand in 2009 There was also When I Look In Your Eyes (2000), O Brother Where Art Thou (2002), Genius Loves Company (2005), and River: The Joni Letters (2008) after the Bennett win. (All of those albums except the Diana Krall one won. Coincidence?) And it’s worth considering that there was a committee since ’95, which potentially blocked other such albums from being nominated. Susan Boyle’s I Dreamed a Dream and Lionel Richie’s Tuskegee immediately come to mind as recent(-ish) cover albums that could have gotten in.

Susan lost the BPVA to Gaga so I don’t know if she would have the strength to reach aoty

[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204498090

in a perfect setting for Gaga and Tony, I can speed up with pop duo, aoty and traditional pop, I don’t think they’re coming to ROTY. they will certainly be the standout for pop voters as Billie and Olivia have similar narratives and target audience, they can split votes. I agree that the biggest hurdle for L4S is making it to AOTY but with the nomination, a win would be very possible, Gaga is doing a lot of promotion, Tony has the narrative and respect, and the two together have multi-genre support, while Olivia and Billie will split votes another.

[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204488568

Darren wrote:

I don’t think you have the brain cells necessary to hold a proper debate.

good behavior is not one of your qualities right?

[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204488222

Darren wrote:

Yes, like the artist who, only a year earlier, made history as the youngest artist to win Album of the Year, and only the second artist (and only woman) to win all four of the general field categories in the same night. Are you okay?

my god just stop tying the artist to the music, do you really think HTE would have any chance of winning any category if it was a total flop and a bad album for critics just by having the name “Billie” up front? she’s not Adele and the moment billie falls the love they have for her will end too.

having said that, yes i know that depending on which artist is in the song/album voters can vote for anything and in my current opinion HTE will win AOTY in 2022 but no one is infallible, billie won in 2020 and 2021 because he had the the right songs in the right places and the right image and narrative when it’s over and it may or may not be this year it won’t win anymore.

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#1204488203

lipabridgerstwigs wrote:

Bringing up EIW being baitier than DSN makes no sense considering HTE is also baitier than Sour. Beyond that, if Single Ladies won SOTY, then there’s no reason why DSN couldn’t have won ROTY.

I agree HTE should be more attractive than Sour to voters but the discussion wasn’t about that.

btw SL has no similarity to DSN

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#1204488190

Darren wrote:

The Fame, The Fame Monster, Teenage Dream, The E.N.D., I Am Sasha Fierce, In the Lonely Hour, Beauty Behind the Madness, Thank U Next, Purpose,

sour is being bigger than all of these with the exception of The Fame  (for now) which happened to only lose to a teen country-pop album that managed to be even bigger and purpose lost to Adele.

i believe you are an olivia fan so you should be following her charts, good sour only and comparable to Fearless, 21, 25 and 1989 and billie’s debut in chart stability. I still think AOTY will be Billie’s for now, but Sour is way stronger than you all think.

 

[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204488146

Darren wrote:

Or, maybe, just maybe, most of those songs were weak contenders to begin with and there were often bigger hits to pick from.

like Billie in 2021?

[AG Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 114 View Predictions]

#1204488129

Darren wrote:

Drawing parallels between songs that appealed to a similar audience is a valid argument. Claiming that “Don’t Start Now” lost because of a bias against female dance-pop hits, despite the fact that female artists and dance-pop hits have won Record/Song of the Year, is baseless and laughable. While you might be onto something regarding Grammy voters not being enamored with female pop divas, the implication that “Everything I Wanted” beating “Don’t Start Now” was due to a ‘lack of competition’ is crazy considering Dua’s album literally beat the AOTY winner in another category.

oh yes artist like Daft Punk and Bee Gees. well I’m still waiting for an example of a win minimally similar to DSN and Savage in SOTY and ROTY